Minnesota vs. Indiana Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
P.J. Fleck and the Gophers head to Bloomington on Saturday looking to bounce back after a loss to Iowa.
The Hawkeyes ended a four-game conference winning streak for the Gophers thanks to some big plays. However, Minnesota still played an impressive game against one of the better teams in the Big Ten while recording over 400 total yards.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers' season somehow keeps getting worse and worse. The Hoosiers haven't won a game since Sept. 25, as they're 2-8 straight up and against the spread. They're still looking for their first conference win of the season.
Last week, the Hoosiers fell to Rutgers, 38-3, in a game in which they also surrendered six turnovers with four fumbles and two interceptions.
Indiana's season has been a disaster, but the Gophers still have a chance to win the Big Ten West. So, why are they only a seven-point favorite over the Hoosiers? Can we cash an easy ticket here with the Gophers playing a team that has only covered the spread twice this season?
I've said it once, and I'll say it again: Nothing is easy when it comes to betting the Big Ten, and I refuse to think I've it figured out at any point.
The Gophers are currently receiving 93% of spread bets, but I think there's a better line on the total of this game with nowhere near as much public backing.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Will Minnesota Change Offensive Strategies?
Several things need to fall the Gophers' way for them to find themselves atop the Big Ten West: they need Nebraska to win their last two games against Wisconsin and Iowa while Iowa needs to lose this week to Illinois.
Crazier things have happened in the Big Ten, but I don't think Fleck is holding his breath. However, they are bowl eligible and can still finish the season with nine wins for just the second time since Fleck arrived in 2017.
Quarterback Tanner Morgan's confidence is likely at an all-time low after completing just 14-of-30 passes against Iowa; his 46% completion percentage was his second-lowest of the season. However, he will have a much easier matchup this weekend, as Hoosier opponents have completed 60% of passes on average.
Expect Minnesota to pass more than usual this week. It's passed on just 32% of its plays this season, but one of Indiana's few bright spots has been its ability to stop the rush.
The Gophers also have more than enough talented pass-catchers, with Chris Autman-Bell leading the way with 409 yards on 29 catches with three touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has been one of the best in the Big Ten. The Gophers defense limits opponents to just 19.2 points and 296 yards per game on average — both rank among the top-15 nationally.
Against the rush, they've been inside the top 10 in yards per game, allowing just 100 yards per game while limiting opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry.
While they aren't as good in the secondary, they are still ranked 20th in the country, limiting opponents to just 196.8 passing yards per game on average.
Indiana Hoosiers
Who Starts at Quarterback?
There aren't many positives for this Hoosier team. With IU running back Stephen Carr slated to miss his second game due to injury, the Hoosiers will likely stray away from the running back by committee they attempted against Rutgers when they recorded just 85 yards rushing.
The quarterback situation in Bloomington, however, is a large unknown. Michael Penix said he wants to return the field this season, and while we can't count him out, two others have stepped up in his absence. Jack Tuttle and Donaven McCulley have split time under center for the Hoosiers.
Neither has been great, but they haven't been a drop-off from Penix.
Regardless of who's under center for Indiana, it's important to note that while Minnesota may be better at stopping the run, it's far from lacking against the pass. It ranks 41st in the country, limiting opponents to just seven yards per pass.
Minnesota vs. Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Minnesota and Indiana match up statistically:
Minnesota Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 49 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 99 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 31 | 118 | |
| Big Play | 101 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 108 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Indiana Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 51 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 77 | 62 | |
| Big Play | 128 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 87 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 79 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 84 | 18 |
| Coverage | 61 | 76 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 97 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 62 | 87 |
| Plays per Minute | 129 | 58 |
| Rush Rate | 69.1% (4) | 51.6% (86) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Minnesota vs. Indiana Betting Pick
Both of these teams are struggling offensively, but it's senior day for Indiana and one of its last chances to pick up a conference win this season.
However, I think the Hoosiers could play some of their best football of the year and still not put up more than three scores on the Gophers. Instead, I think they will excel on the defensive side of the ball.
Furthermore, Minnesota ranks fourth in the country in time of possession at 59.2% of the game. I expect a slow, methodical Minnesota attack and a lot of three-and-outs for Indiana.
There are turnover concerns that could throw the total off, along with the fact that Minnesota could pull away in the second half, which is why I'm only betting the first half.
I'm taking the first-half under at 21.5, but I wouldn't bet it any lower than 21.
