New Mexico State vs. Alabama Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+51.5 -115 | 67.5 -106o / -114u | +2200 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-51.5 -105 | 67.5 -106o / -114u | -10000 |
Alabama maintains the second seed in the most recent College Football Playoff Committee rankings after barely surviving at home against LSU.
The Crimson Tide entered last weeks game against LSU as nearly 30-point favorites against a lame duck head coach in Ed Orgeron. LSU had opportunities to win the game outright but were unable to complete the upset. The Tigers defense held the Crimson Tide to six rushing yards in the entire game, the lowest mark for the program in the 21st century.
You’d imagine Alabama should have an opportunity for a big bounce-back statement win over a quality opponent with only three games remaining, right?
Wrong, Alabama will welcome the New Mexico State Aggies Saturday morning.
New Mexico State is 1-8 on the season with its sole victory coming over South Carolina State. In 2020 the Aggies split two Spring games, defeating Dixie State, and losing to Tarleton State.
Alabama is favored by over 50-points on Saturday afternoon and how Nick Saban approaches this game will determine if they can cover such a massive spread.
New Mexico State Aggie
Aggies Showing Some Fight
New Mexico State is the 128th ranked team in the FBS according to Colin Wilson’s power ratings.
Although they haven’t beaten a FBS school in over three years, the Aggies have shown some fight this season. They have scored double-digit points in every game this season outside of the opener. New Mexico State has been a double-digit underdog in each FBS game this season but has covered the number in six of its nine games.
Quarterback Jonah Johnson has thrown the ball an average of 50 times over the last five games. In those games Johnson has averaged over 300 yards passing while completing 60% of his passes. He leads the team in carries and has punched in four touchdowns with his legs.
Johnson has hit nine separate receivers for touchdowns this season including Jared Wyatt and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda who are approaching the 500-yard receiving mark this season.
New Mexico State only owns a Rush Rate of 40% and has averaged 3.2 yards on those carries. It will be hard to imagine the Aggies moving the chains consistently against Alabama and will need to hope to break loose on one of its pass attempts to find pay dirt.
Defensively they’re going to be outmatched at every position.
The unit has been putrid against the pass allowing 9.9 yards per attempt. Luckily, once Alabama builds a lead, they shouldn’t see too many passes and will need to focus on containing the Crimson Tide’s rushing attack.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama to Focus on Development
This is tricky timing for Alabama to face New Mexico State.
It will want to get the most out of this game to improve upon many of the weaknesses that Nick Saban saw last week. But it also will be a good time to get some key banged-up players rest heading into the final stretch of the season.
It will be much of a developmental game that will likely see the healthy starters for only the early portion of the game.
Alabama will also want to focus on the rushing attack that was held to just six total yards on 26 carries last week. On the season, the Tide have averaged 4.1 yards per carry and own the 64th Rushing Success Rate.
New Mexico State has shown some ability to create Havoc in the run game as they have contributed 58 tackles for loss this season.
The passing game, when utilized, will undoubtedly be explosive for Alabama. New Mexico State defense sits at 102nd in terms of Passing Success Rate and averages just below a first down on every pass attempt they face.
But once the lead has been built, we should see more conservative play-calling from offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
Defensively the Crimson Tide should have their way against the pass heavy attack of New Mexico State. They will have a dominant advantage over the offensive line and will be pressuring Johnson in the pocket constantly.
But the Crimson Tide have proven to be vulnerable at times in allowing Explosive Plays.
New Mexico State vs. Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico State and Alabama match up statistically:
New Mexico State Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 32 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 47 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 129 | 73 | |
| Big Play | 47 | 58 | |
| Havoc | — | 23 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 94 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Alabama Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 102 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 71 | 129 | |
| Big Play | 10 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 62 | — | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 55 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 8 |
| Coverage | 129 | 23 |
| Middle 8 | 126 | 3 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 121 | 32 |
| Plays per Minute | 16 | 94 |
| Rush Rate | 40.1% (125) | 51.5% (89) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
New Mexico State vs. Alabama Betting Pick
Best case scenario for Alabama is to get out of this game without any key injuries. I anticipate Saban to implement a conservative scheme to shorten the game and help to get out unscathed.
This game will follow a similar blueprint to what happened week two when Alabama played Mercer. Alabama had the ball for 40-minutes and only scored three points in the fourth quarter.
The Crimson Tide second-string players allowed two second-half touchdowns. They ran the ball on 14 of its final 15 plays to get out of dodge with a 48-14 victory.
It will be a similar matchup here with Alabama blowing the game open in the first half and then a slow-paced second half.
Alabama has only held one opponent to single digit scoring this season and it wouldn’t be surprising to see New Mexico State find pay dirt through some explosive passing plays.
Roll Tide should roll in this matchup, but they won't cover.
