Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Picks: Your Betting Guide for Saturday’s Rivalry Game

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 27

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Oklahoma Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4 -110	49.5 -110o / -110u	+160

Oklahoma State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4 -110	49.5 -110o / -110u	-190

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

After 115 previous meetings, the Bedlam Series might finally come to an end, as Oklahoma and Texas prepare to move to the SEC.

The football rivalry started in 1904 when a punt was taken over by the wind so harshly that an Oklahoma recovery in a half-frozen creek was called a touchdown in a 75-0 victory.

There have been plenty of meaningful games in this series, from Gundy quarterbacks to a claim of mobsters spiking the team soup in 1954.

The stakes could not be any higher on Saturday, as a spot in the Big 12 Championship game and a high ranking for the College Football Playoff await the winner of this game.

An Oklahoma State win could potentially place Baylor in Arlington alongside the Pokes. An Oklahoma victory will call for a rematch of Bedlam in AT&T Stadium.

Ultimately, the loser of this game is knocked out of the national title picture. The Cowboys have won this game just three times in Stillwater since 1967, which could make Saturday a historic event for a series that is seemingly coming to an end.

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners fell out of favor with the College Football Playoff committee from the get-go, sporting an undefeated record but a rank of eighth.

That zero in the loss column did nothing to fool the committee after one-possession victories over Texas, West Virginia, Nebraska and Tulane. None of those teams are bowl eligible through Week 12.

This same Oklahoma team trailed Kansas in the fourth quarter and was stuffed on 50% of rush attempts against Baylor. Three Iowa State offensive turnovers were key in a one-possession victory for the Sooners.

There are a number of issues on both sides of the ball that have contributed to the Sooners' downward trajectory.

The numbers are elite on the offensive side with a top-30 rank in Success Rate and a mark of fifth in Finishing Drives, but the momentum-killing characteristics remain.

Six missed field goals and 27 sacks both rank in the bottom 35 in the country, with most of those sacks coming on passing downs. Fumble luck is certainly a part of the identity of the Sooners, as Oklahoma has 12 fumbles on the season and has recovered all but just one.

While the offense teeters with momentum-killer plays, the defense lacks any ability to stop opposing offenses. The Sooners defense is 96th in the country in creating three or more three-and-outs per game.

Opponents have almost double the national average of methodical drives against the Oklahoma defense, a stat defined as a 10-play possession by an offense.

Those numbers have been in steady decline for head coach Lincoln Riley's team through the second half of the season.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

The best coaching job in the country may belong to Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. His 4-2-5 scheme with a 23% blitz rate has been pure Havoc against opposing offenses.

No defense in the country generates as many three-and-outs or hard stops, the percentage of possessions in which the defense forces a turnover.

Playing the exact conference schedule as Oklahoma, the Pokes have created top-10 defensive ranks in almost every statistical category.

This is the top defense in the nation in limiting passing downs explosiveness. Only Georgia has allowed fewer red-zone attempts from opposing offenses. The Cowboys have been an impossible unit to score against, ranking 17th in opponent red-zone touchdown percentage.

The offense is where the questions begin for the Pokes, starting with the play of quarterback Spencer Sanders. The knock on the junior coming into the 2021 campaign was a lack of awareness in the pocket, mobility and decision-making.

His 15:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio is on pace to be the best of his career, which is an impressive feat after losing Tylan Wallace and Chuba Hubbard.

Sanders has a positive ratio in big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays and has had a dramatic shift in pocket awareness. Sanders has increased his adjusted completion percentage when blitzed from 60% in 2020 to 75% this season, near his rate when not blitzed.

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Oklahoma State match up statistically:

Oklahoma Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	29	5
Line Yards	73	3
Pass Success	15	14
Pass Blocking**	40	29
Big Play	15	4
Havoc	84	2
Finishing Drives	5	7
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	102	46
Line Yards	104	13
Pass Success	55	77
Pass Blocking**	79	7
Big Play	34	106
Havoc	35	39
Finishing Drives	60	54
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	54	62
Coverage	59	8
Middle 8	14	14
SP+ Special Teams	18	45
Plays per Minute	86	49
Rush Rate	51.7% (89)	61.% (20)

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick

The biggest handicap term in this edition of Bedlam is methodical drives. The ability to generate sustained drives that end in points will determine the winner of this game.

The offensive and defensive matchups are a wash on Finishing Drives, explosiveness and tackling. Both teams have even ranks in "Middle 8" and Standard Downs Success Rate as well.

The most important aspect is Havoc Allowed and momentum killer drive percentage.

The Sooners are 84th in Havoc Allowed on offense, a direct statistic derived from 63 tackles for loss allowed and 12 offensive fumbles. Oklahoma ranks 74th in methodical drive rate but second in the nation in scoring drive percentage.

The Cowboys' ability to stop explosive plays is crucial to keeping Caleb Williams off the field, as Oklahoma State is fifth in Defensive Standard Downs Sack Rate and the best in the nation in defending explosiveness on passing downs.

Methodical drives are important to the Cowboys offense, as Oklahoma allows 20% of opponent drives to last 10 or more plays. Sanders' upgrade in the passing game, along with a decrease in fumbles from previous seasons, suggests Oklahoma will have a hard time getting the Pokes off the field.

Wide receiver Tay Martin ranks among the top 30 of all FBS players with a minimum of 70 targets and presents an issue for the cornerback position on the Sooners defense. Oklahoma does not have a single cornerback in the top 200 graded players, per PFF.

Both Jaden Davis and DJ Graham have combined for just four pass breakups on the season while giving up multiple plays over 50 yards.

The market has caught on to the explosiveness allowed by the Oklahoma State defense and the differences in this game. An opening spread of just a point in favor of the Cowboys has been steamed through the key number of three.

The Action Network projection makes the game Oklahoma State -3.5. In power ratings that exert more weight to recent performance, the Cowboys can be as high as six-point favorites.

The early market move is the correct one, with Oklahoma finding plenty of fumble luck while allowing opposing offenses to methodically drain clock and put points on the board.

With a tougher strength of schedule and strength of record, the Cowboys are properly favored.

Ultimately, Knowles' Cowboy defense will get pressure on Williams, limit explosive plays and start the turnover regression against the Sooners.

Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5 or Better