Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +145 |
The Oklahoma State Cowboys hit the road to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.
The Pokes rebounded from a close loss at Iowa State by beating Kansas, 55-3, in Stillwater last weekend. OSU is still tied for second in the Big 12 standings with a massive game against arch-rival Oklahoma in a few weeks.
However, it needs to win its next three games, including Saturday in Morgantown to have Bedlam matter in the Big 12 title race.
It's been an up-and-down year for West Virginia, but the Mountaineers picked up a signature win over Iowa State last weekend at home.
They sit at 4-4 overall and 2-3 in conference play, so they'll be battling to reach bowl eligibility. If WVU wins at home on Saturday, it'll have three chances against Kansas State, Texas and Kansas to try to secure a bowl bid.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Offense
From a Success Rate standpoint, the Cowboys are pretty average, ranking 69th in the country. The biggest problem for Oklahoma State is even though it runs the ball 62.74% of the time, it hasn't been that effective on the ground.
The Cowboys gain only 3.8 yards per carry and rank outside the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/rush. So, going up against a very stout West Virginia front seven is going to be difficult for Oklahoma State.
Spencer Sanders has been pretty effective in the passing game this season, as he's throwing for 7.8 yards per attempt and has a 78.8 passing grade, per PFF. That is where Oklahoma State is going to have most of its success because the West Virginia secondary is below average this season.
Oklahoma State Defense
Oklahoma State's defense has been unbelievable this season. The Cowboys are allowing only 4.6 yards per play, which is the 11th-best mark in the country.
The strength of Mike Gundy's defense is its front seven, as the Cowboys give up only 2.9 yards per carry and are graded as the No. 6 run defense in college football, per PFF.
Additionally, the Cowboys are 18th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 11th in Defensive Line Yards and 14th in EPA/Rush allowed. So, for a West Virginia rushing attack that has been very average this season — gaining only 3.8 yards per play — it's going to be really difficult to establish a consistent rushing attack.
The secondary has been very solid this season, as it's allowing only 6.9 yards per attempt, owns an 87.9 coverage grade, per PFF, and is 19th in EPA/Pass allowed.
For a quarterback like Jarret Doege — who only has a 74.1 passing grade, per PFF — it's going to be a difficult matchup.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia Offense
The West Virginia offense has been really average this season, as it gains 5.6 yards per play, ranks 49th in Offensive Success Rate and ranks 80th in EPA/Play.
The run game has really been struggling, as West Virginia is only gaining 3.8 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are also 67th in Rushing Success Rate, 81st in Offensive Line Yards and 78th in rushing explosiveness.
However, West Virginia only runs the ball 49.3% of the time, so most of its success is going to have to come through the air, especially given how stout Oklahoma State's front seven is.
Doege has been very average this season, as he's thrown for only 7.4 yards per attempt and only has a 74.1 passing grade, per PFF.
West Virginia is 43rd in Passing Success Rate and 65th in EPA/Pass, but this is the best secondary it's seen this season. That means I don't think we will see Doege have as much success as he had last weekend against Iowa State.
West Virginia Defense
West Virginia's defense — much like its offense — has been very average this season. Iowa State torched them for 7.0 yards per play and 7.03 yards per carry on the ground.
The run defense — outside of last weekend's game against Iowa State — has been pretty decent, as the front seven ranks 44th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 55th in Defensive Line Yards and 58th in EPA/Rush allowed.
The good news for them in this matchup is even though the Cowboys run the ball at a high rate, they aren't very efficient, so the Mountaineers should be able to slow them down.
The biggest problems for West Virginia this season have come in the secondary. The Mountaineers are allowing 8.4 yards per attempt, rank 92nd in EPA/Pass allowed and rank 90th in coverage, per PFF. They could have a tough time slowing down Sanders and wide receiver Tay Martin.
Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and West Virginia match up statistically:
Oklahoma State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 69 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 51 | 99 | |
| Big Play | 84 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 19 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 56 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 37 | 39 |  |
| Big Play | 30 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 21 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 20 |
| Coverage | 12 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 26 | 32 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 80 | 71 |
| Plays per Minute | 53 | 96 |
| Rush Rate | 61.4% (22) | 49.3% (103) |
Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia Betting Pick
The pace of this game is likely going to be pretty slow, considering West Virginia is 96th in plays per minute and Oklahoma State is running the ball 61.4% of the time.
That will play into a low-scoring contest, considering the struggles of the Oklahoma State rushing attack and how stout the Cowboys' defense has been this season.
I only have 41.17 points projected for this game, so I think there's some value on under 50 points, and I would play it down to 48.
