Oregon State vs. Colorado Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +320 |
The Oregon State Beavers travel to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday afternoon.
The Beavers are looking to bounce back after getting upset at Cal, 39-25, last week. The Beavers are now 3-2 in conference play, but they can still win out to make the Pac-12 Championship, as long as Washington State loses another conference game.
The Buffaloes are also coming off of a loss after they fell, 52-29, at Autzen Stadium against Oregon on Saturday. The Buffs allowed the Ducks to run for 7.1 yards per carry and they will face an even tougher rushing attack this week against the Beavers.
The Beavers are 10.5-point favorites, but is this too much juice as they go into Boulder and battle against the Buffs at elevation?
Oregon State Beavers
When Oregon State Has the Ball
If Oregon State wins and covers, it will be because it established the run early and stuck with the ground game. Oregon State’s running game has been elite this season, as it ranks second nationally in Line Yards and fourth in Rush Success Rate.
Not only have the Beavers consistently gotten ahead of the chains by running the ball, but they have converted successful drives into points (second in Finishing Drives).
The run game has also been explosive, as the Beavers rank 24th in Big Plays. The rushing attack has helped them prevent negative plays, as they are 15th in preventing Havoc.
The Beavers should be chomping at the bit to run the football against a Buffaloes defense that ranks outside of the top-95 nationally in Line Yards, Rush Success Rate Allowed, Big Plays, Havoc and Finishing Drives.
The Ducks just ran all over them with their starters and second-string offense, as they scored 52 points last week. Although the Beavers might not put up 50, they should have success on the ground in Boulder.
Establishing the run will be key for Oregon State to take the pressure off of first-year starter Chance Nolan. Nolan has recorded a QBR of 70 or higher in six of eight games this season, but he has thrown seven interceptions in the last five games.
Taking care of the football and using his legs to pick up easy yards will be key against this Colorado defense.
Colorado Buffaloes
When Colorado Has the Ball
To say Colorado’s offense has struggled this season would be a big understatement. The Buffs rank outside the top 100 in Line Yards (107), Rush Success Rate (103), Pass Blocking (111), Pass Success Rate (111), Big Plays (117) and Havoc Allowed (114).
The Oregon State defense ranks in the middle of the pack to below average (but not incredibly below average like the Colorado offense) nationally in most statistics, but it has excelled in creating Havoc (44th).
It will be key for Colorado to prevent Oregon State’s defense from making explosive plays that put the Buffs behind the chains. They also must avoid turnovers that give the Beavers short fields to work with (and allow them to bring out the incredible turnover chainsaw).
Colorado has no strength on offense, only bigger weaknesses. The Buffs aren’t good at running the football, but they have played conservatively and run the ball 63.2% of the time (the 12th-highest Rush Rate in the country).
They trust freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis even less. Lewis has recorded a QBR below 46 (50 is average, for reference) in seven of eight games this season.
Last week was his best performance of the season, as he had a QBR of 73.3 against Oregon. However, his numbers were buoyed by two garbage-time scores in the fourth quarter against the Oregon backups.
If the Buffs cover or get their first conference win against a team that isn’t Arizona, it will be because they have success running the ball. That will allow Lewis to play with a lead instead of trying to bring them back through the air.
Oregon State vs. Colorado Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Colorado match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 78 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 82 | 124 | |
| Big Play | 24 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 15 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 106 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Colorado Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 59 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 111 | 104 | |
| Big Play | 117 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 114 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 78 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 113 | 86 |
| Coverage | 68 | 96 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 58 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 24 | 61 |
| Plays per Minute | 96 | 106 |
| Rush Rate | 62.2% (18) | 63.2% (12) |
Oregon State vs. Colorado Betting Pick
I’m not a fan of laying double-digit points with college football teams that aren’t elite, but this is more of a bet against Colorado’s offense than it is on Oregon State.
The Oregon State offense will be plenty motivated and focused to bounce back after last week’s loss as a road favorite. Also, they will face a huge step down in competition from Cal’s defense to Colorado’s defense.
The Beavers should run for more than five yards per carry as they put up four touchdowns or more.
Colorado, however, won’t have as much success offensively. The Buffs will try to run the ball as they have all year, but they will struggle to do so against a stacked box. The Beavers don’t have to respect their passing game.
Outside of last week’s game against Oregon where they scored 15 points in garbage time and their game against Arizona (where they got two non-offensive scores), the Buffaloes haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their three other Pac-12 games.
Expect the Beavers to handle them easily and win this game by two scores or more as they keep their Pac-12 North hopes alive.
I recommend betting one unit on Oregon State at -10.5 on DraftKings with value down to -12.
