BYU vs Arkansas Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
In what may be one of the most overshadowed matchups of this monster Week 7 in college football, Arkansas will travel to Provo, Utah to take on the BYU Cougars.
LaVell Edwards Stadium is one of the most beautiful in the nation and seeing BYU have the chance to host an SEC school there should be a fun sight.
However, the fun may not last for long.
Arkansas started off great this season before slipping the past few weeks. But with its captain back, there may be an opportunity to back the SEC road team in this one.
BYU Cougars
Cougars Offense
For as good as Arkansas’ offense has been, BYU’s has been right behind the Razorbacks'. The Cougars have had a better than average Success Rate in every game this season and have had performances over the 70th percentile against high-level programs like Baylor, Oregon and Notre Dame.
BYU ranks 51st in Offensive Success Rate and has been especially good passing the ball, as it ranks 22nd in Passing Success Rate.
Jaren Hall has been the driving force behind this offense that is the 45th best in the country, per SP+. That is despite the Cougars missing their top two receivers for part of the season.
If everyone is at 100%, BYU should also have a successful offensive day against a mediocre Arkansas defense.
Cougars Defense
BYU’s defense has left a lot to be desired this season. The unit ranks 115th in Defensive Success Rate and has been exceptionally poor against the run — as I mentioned previously.
There have been some strong offenses on the schedule for the Cougars so far, which has contributed to this. However, they are still ranked as the 55th-best defense by SP+ and are not a top-tier unit by any means.
The only game that BYU’s defense has held its opponent to a below-average Success Rate was against South Florida in Week 1.
Since then, all five opponents have posted a 58th percentile or better Offensive Success Rate against BYU. This includes teams like Wyoming and Utah State, who scored 24 and 26 points, respectively, despite having offenses that rank 119th and 99th in SP+.
This Cougars' defense isn’t terrible, but against a team like Arkansas, I doubt that it will pose too much of a threat.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Razorbacks Offense
Arkansas started off the year 3-0, but has now dropped its last three games and is currently sitting at .500.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson returning for the offense will be a huge deal. Jefferson missed last week’s contest against Mississippi State with a head injury, but has been practicing this week and all signs point to him returning.
The final score of the Mississippi State game shows that Arkansas got blown out, but it actually had a higher Offensive Success Rate than the Bulldogs in the game.
This season, the Razorbacks rank 39th in Offensive Success Rate and 23rd in Rushing Success Rate. This will be a good mismatch for them, facing off against a BYU defense that is 125th in Rushing Success Rate on defense.
Every FBS opponent that the Razorbacks have faced this year has had a defense ranked 36th or better, per SP+.
Despite this tough schedule, Arkansas has still managed to post a 60th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against everyone besides Alabama.
With Jefferson back under center, this Arkansas offense is very potent and will be facing the weakest defense that it has seen all season. If Sam Pittman can exploit the mismatch in the run game, I expect the Razorbacks' offense to have a great day.
Razorbacks Defense
Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, this defense has been their downfall. They rank 93rd in Defensive Success Rate and like BYU, have one of the worst rushing defenses in FBS at 122nd.
SP+ has this ranked as the 70th-best defense in the country, which is the worst in the SEC for a non-Vanderbilt squad by a large margin.
Of the five FBS teams that Arkansas has faced, three of them have offenses ranked in the top 27, per SP+.
Against Texas A&M (63rd) and South Carolina (49th), the Razorbacks allowed Success Rates in the 60th and 70th percentiles, respectively.
If BYU plays at this level, there is a good chance that Arkansas can outscore the Cougars and win.
BYU vs Arkansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Arkansas match up statistically:
Arkansas Offense vs. BYU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 62 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 6 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 113 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 113 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
BYU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 117 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 52 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 2 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 107 | 46 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 105 | 44 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 64 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 100 | 110 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (19) | 26.1 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 65.7% (7) | 49.2% (90) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
BYU vs Arkansas Betting Pick
Both of these teams started the season 2-0 ATS and have dropped their last four against the spread.
These two teams have a combined record of 9-3 to the over this season, so that could be in play potentially.
However, with the total already getting bet up to 66, I feel much more confident playing a side.
This spread opened at BYU-2.5, but has moved all over the place this week. At some shops, Arkansas has flipped to the favorite while it's still +1.5 at FanDuel, albeit at -118.
The movement this week towards the Razorbacks appears to side with how I want to play this game. I like the SEC team on the road to get the bounce-back win.
