Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion Odds
| Arkansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
Arkansas State and Old Dominion both look to get back to .500 as they kick off Sun Belt action.
Arkansas State opened its season with a dominant 55-point victory over Grambling in Week 1. But the Red Wolves came back to reality in the following two weeks, losing by a combined 45 points to Ohio State and Memphis.
Old Dominion opened the season with an upset victory over big brother Virginia Tech. The Monarchs followed that performance up with an 18-point defeat to East Carolina and a tough two-point loss to Virginia.
Both of those losses came on the road, and S.B. Ballard Stadium should be rocking as Old Dominion starts conference play at home.
ODU is poised to expose an Arkansas State defense that may be the worst in the nation.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Former Tennessee coach Butch Jones has had a nightmare tenure in his two years with the Arkansas State program.
His predecessor, Blake Anderson, took much of the talent with him to Utah State and left Jones scrambling to put together a decent roster — something he still hasn’t accomplished.
The defense was one of the worst in the nation last season, allowing 40 points per game and 7.2 yards per play. It all started with the inability to stop the run, as the Red Wolves gave up 6.4 yards per carry and over 260 rushing yards per game.
Those issues weren’t addressed in the offseason, and the defense has appeared just as bad through its last two matchups.
Both Ohio State and Memphis accumulated over 540 yards of total offense. Memphis sliced the defense through the air, averaging 13 yards per pass attempt. Ohio State crushed the Red Wolves in all aspects, averaging 13 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 yards per rush.
After quarterback Layne Hatcher transferred to an in-conference opponent in Texas State, James Blackman was handed the keys to the offense. He’s surprisingly been solid through three games, tossing four touchdowns and zero interceptions. The 6-foot-5 redshirt senior is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt and completing just shy of 70% of his pass attempts.
The issue with the offense comes with the rushing attack. Arkansas State ranks 106th in Success Rate and 120th in Line yards. It'll be an issue if the Red Wolves have to turn to the air, as the strength of the Old Dominion defense comes in the secondary.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Though Old Dominion shares the same record as Arkansas State at this point, it has looked much better. The Monarchs upset Virginia Tech and led Virginia by one point with a minute to play before allowing a game-winning field goal.
The Old Dominion offense hasn’t been stellar to date. The Monarchs rank 130th in Rushing Success Rate and 93rd in Passing Success Rate. They’re averaging less than 290 yards of total offense per game to go along with 4.8 yards per play.
But you must consider the defenses they’ve played to this point.
They should have no problem moving the ball against an Arkansas State defense that's the worst in the nation in tackling and 110th in coverage, perPFF.
Hayden Wolff has been serviceable through the first three weeks but will have an opportunity to shine in this matchup. He should connect with go-to target Ali Jennings III plenty in this matchup. Through the first three weeks, Jennings III is averaging 21 yards per reception and 140 yards per game.
Tight end Zack Kuntz, who stands at 6-foot-8, will be a mismatch against this defense. Though he only had two catches in the first two games, he rebounded nicely against Virginia with six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas State and Old Dominion match up statistically:
Arkansas State Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 120 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 69 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 97 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 94 | — |  |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 22 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Old Dominion Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 81 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 125 | 23 | |
| Havoc | — | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 108 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 81 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 58 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 2 | 70 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (95) | 23.9 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 54.1% (63) | 43.6% (116) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion Betting Pick
This will be the third straight road game for Arkansas State, and it's likely to end the same way as the first two.
Old Dominion has gone down to the wire against two ACC programs and pulled off a victory in one of them. The defense has been stout in those matchups, holding both Virginia and Virginia Tech below 17 points.
Offensively, the Monarchs should find a way to put up a big number against the worst defense in the country. Jennings and Kuntz are going to expose a Red Wolves secondary that ranks 110th in pass coverage.
Old Dominion has clearly been the better team through the first three weeks and will show up at home to kick off Sun Belt play with a decisive victory.
