Auburn vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
On Saturday afternoon, the Auburn Tigers will travel to Oxford to take on Lane Kiffin and his red-hot Ole Miss Rebels.
Ole Miss remains undefeated at 6-0 while being just 3-3 ATS this season.
Auburn is looking for a much-needed road victory after dropping three of its last four contests SU, with a 1-3 ATS record to match.
Auburn has dominated this matchup in recent history, winning the last four meeting in Oxford by an average of nine points. Additionally, Ole Miss is just 3-12 SU/7-5 ATS when hosting the Tigers.
The home team has been 0-7 ATS in the last seven matchups between these two SEC West opponents.
This matchup comes as a crossroads for these two programs, as Ole Miss looks to continue its historic season, while Auburn looks to play the role of the spoiler to salvage a bowl berth from its incredibly difficult schedule.
Auburn Tigers
Since starting the season 2-0, there has not been very many positives to look at when it comes to Bryan Harsin’s Tigers.
So far this season, the Tigers' headache has come from their inconsistent quarterback play.
Auburn ranks 88th in the country in Offensive Success Rate, passing at just 38.2%. It ranks even lower in EPA/Pass at -0.241, which is good for just 118th nationally.
Harsin entered the year wanting to play both T.J Finley and Robby Ashford at the quarterback position. After Finley went down with a shoulder injury in Week 3, Ashford was forced into the starting role.
It has been apparent that neither has truly been able to have consistent success in this offense.
Coming into Week 7, Harsin has listed Finley as “day-to-day.” Whether it is Finley or Ashford under center, the game plan will stay relatively consistent for the Tigers: Establish a rushing attack to create explosive plays through the air.
Auburn's offense has been very successful with its ability to create explosive plays.
The Tigers have an overall Offensive Explosiveness of 1.41, which grows to 1.75 when passing. This is a direct advantage for Auburn, which faces a Rebels secondary that has given up an Explosiveness rating of 1.45 against the pass.
These explosive plays created by the Tigers will be an X-factor in keeping them within the number.
Defensively, look for Auburn to force Ole Miss into a one-dimensional ground attack.
The Tigers rank 23rd nationally in Defensive Success Rate against the pass, outmatching Ole Miss, which ranks 39th in the same category offensively.
The Rebels, who already ranked 17th nationally in Rush Rate, will be forced to churn this game out on the ground, limiting the number of possessions for each team.
Ole Miss Rebels
For Ole Miss and Kiffin, the 2022 season has seen unparalleled success via an offensive style rather unfamiliar to Kiffin.
The Rebels have relied on their uber-successful ground attack to remain undefeated to this point in the season.
Ole Miss ranks ninth nationally in Offensive Success Rate rushing, averaging 3.2 Line Yards per carry, with an additional 1.4 second-level Line Yards per rush.
This lethal rushing attack has resulted in a 56% Success Rate on Standard Downs, resulting in 4.5 points per scoring opportunity.
This rushing attack — combined with an offense that ranks third nationally in seconds per play at 20.5 — has given the Rebels an overall Offensive Success Rate of 47.5%, which is good for 17th nationally.
A major reason that Ole Miss has failed to cover the spread in half of its contests and had to backdoor in Week 6 against Vanderbilt is largely due to the play of its defense.
As stated above, this Ole Miss team has gotten in trouble when it gives up explosive plays, particularly through the air. Auburn is a team whose play style is designed to test this very weakness.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Ole Miss match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 35 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 85 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 14 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ole Miss Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 40 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 35 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 115 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 62 |
| PFF Coverage | 51 | 17 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 48 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (62) | 20.5 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 54.5% (62) | 61.3% (17) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Auburn vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
Overall, I believe that this number is simply too inflated given the play style of this Ole Miss offense, coupled with the mistakes it tends to give up on defense.
The Rebels were -17 favorites against Vanderbilt last week. Auburn gives Ole Miss a more difficult matchup in the trenches.
Additionally, Kentucky had a post-game win expectancy of 62% in Week 5 against the Rebels, adding further evidence to Ole Miss being over inflated in the market.
This number, at the time of writing, remains at 14.5, and I find value down to the key number of 14.
