Boise State vs. New Mexico Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -118 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -880 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -104 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +580 |
You would think that after doing this for six years or so, I would learn to embrace Week 1 surprises. However, another calendar year has started and another Week 1 has left me scratching my head over some results.
One of those being my Maine +7 ticket against the New Mexico Lobos. Not only did it not cover, the Bears got absolutely steam rolled, 41-0. That was nearly as bad as my Oregon +17.5 against Georgia, but we'll save that rant for another time.
On the other hand, Boise State had a much tougher season opener, traveling to the West Coast to take on an underrated Oregon State squad. After some early mistakes, the Broncos played a much better game, but it was too little, too late.
Will New Mexico continue to roll and shock the average viewer once again? Or will Boise State find its footing and shake off the cobwebs by knocking New Mexico back down to earth?
Let's find out.
Boise State Broncos
Listen, everyone has bad days. Just the other day I went to pour milk into my precious bowl of Cinnamon Toast Crunch only to find out I was out of milk.
For Boise State's Hank Bachmeier, it was getting benched early in the second quarter after a rough start (two interceptions) against Oregon State.
Lucky for Boise, it found success in backup quarterback Taylen Green, who threw for 155 yards and one pick. While not eye popping, his success led to Boise winning the second half, 17-10.
As of this writing, Bachmeier is still listed as the starting quarterback on the depth chart. In a personal redemption spot against New Mexico, he will look to tear apart the Lobos' defense.
Boise State nickel Tyreque Jones says he still has "all faith and confidence" in Hank Bachmeier, and is excited to see what he does on Friday pic.twitter.com/FtHDuHwcB2
— Brady Frederick (@BradyFrederick_) September 6, 2022
While the offense needs to figure out its issues, the defense is much more sound.
Oregon State is a far superior team to New Mexico, meaning Boise State will have a good chance to get back on track and replicate last year's success — it ranked above average in nearly all major metrics, including Success Rate.
One weakness that does need to be mentioned is the Broncos' inability to limit pass play explosiveness. However, they catch a break, as New Mexico leans heavy toward the run, something Boise State is more than capable of limiting.
New Mexico Lobos
Alabama, Georgia and … New Mexico?
All jokes aside, New Mexico did impress in its season opener. New Mexico held the Bears to 118 total yards and 2.5 yards per play, while the Lobos finished with 437 yards and an average of six yards per play.
The offensive line was a major concern heading into the season, but looked formidable protecting Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick.
Known as a run heavy unit in years past, the Lobos identity may shift with a decent arm in the backfield. While he still tossed two picks, Kendrick threw for a respectable 170 yards and two touchdowns on 14 completions (17 attempts).
Despite that, the Lobos still possess an above average rush rate and will look to do the same against a Broncos defense that struggled to find its footing last week.
The offensive line will need to prove it is far superior than predicted against a stout Broncos defense that will look to generate Havoc in the backfield.
Boise State vs. New Mexico Betting Pick
While tempering expectations after just one game, it's hard to ignore Boise's struggles under center last week. Oregon State is a far superior opponent than New Mexico, but the offense looked stagnant with Bachmeier.
I am taking the Lobo's at +17 or better, as Bachmeier tries to get his footing.
I'm not only looking for Boise to struggle, but also for New Mexico to continue its newfound offensive momentum to generate some much needed scoring and clock control.
New Mexico grinds it out with an above average rush rate, bleeding the clock with prolonged drives. If Boise State's defense continues to struggle, this gives a spread of over two touchdowns more value with a shorter clock and fewer potential points on the board.
I want to also note: I will be grabbing Boise live should New Mexico cut the number below seven and if the Broncos bench Bachmeier for Green again.
