Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
We may not have midweek MACtion for another month, but there's still money to be made as Buffalo travels to Bowling Green.
Last year, these two programs faced off in a historically wild matchup that you would only find in the MAC. The October showdown featured 100 total points scored in the game, as Bowling Green pulled out a 56-44 victory. The matchup was highlighted by a head coach getting ejected, along with a fake knee touchdown to seal off the victory.
🚨🚨 FAKE KNEEL TOUCHDOWN ALERT 🚨🚨
BGSU QB Matt McDonald rolls backwards, then veers left for a wide-open 47-yard touchdown to put the nail in the coffin!
56-44 BGSU with under a minute remaining. pic.twitter.com/HDgRkZjGVT
— Hustle Belt (@HustleBelt) October 30, 2021
Through the first month of the season, both programs have started undefeated in MAC play. However, each has suffered gut-wrenching losses to FCS opponents.
Buffalo aims to find its third victory in a row and start conference play 3-0 for the fourth time in program history.
Buffalo Bulls
Buffalo seems to have found its groove the last two weeks with victories coming over Eastern Michigan and Miami (OH). The win over the RedHawks came in dramatic fashion with a game-winning touchdown pass with 31 seconds remaining.
The Bulls haven’t found much success through the running game, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. The group ranks outside the top 110 in both Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. But that may change in this matchup, as Bowling Green has been atrocious against the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry against FBS opponents to rank 114th nationally.
Buffalo has found most of its success behind the arm of quarterback Cole Snyder. The junior is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt and has amassed 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions. He’s led the Bulls to rank 52nd in Passing Success Rate.
Buffalo's defense hasn’t been great, allowing 31 points per game — but that’s still much better than Bowling Green’s defense.
The Bulls have been gashed on the ground, allowing 5.8 yards per carry and just shy of nine yards per pass attempt. But now, they match up against a Bowling Green offense that has struggled to consistently move the ball.
Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green stands with a 2-3 record through five games, which is what was expected at this point.
Most thought the wins would come over Eastern Kentucky and Akron, but the Falcons lost their matchup against the FCS school and upset Marshall as 20-point underdogs.
The Falcons offense has been mediocre to this point, averaging 28 points and just shy of 350 yards per game. The rushing attack is nonexistent, putting up just 2.7 yards per carry despite 43 attempts per game (18th) against FBS opponents. With those numbers, it's no surprise that the Falcons rank 121st in Rushing Success Rate.
The offense has moved the chains through the air, averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Quarterback Matt McDonald has tossed 13 touchdowns with only one interception on the season. The signal-caller is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and completing 57% of his passes.
But the anchor to this program has been the defense. The Falcons have been historically bad through their first five games, allowing 42 points and 500 yards of total offense per game. The defense has given up 6.3 yards per play against FBS opponents, which ranks 113th in the country.
FBS opponents are averaging 340 passing yards per game against this BG defense, which is the worst in the country. They’re completing 71% of passes for an average of 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Bowling Green match up statistically:
Buffalo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 119 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 40 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 75 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 131 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Bowling Green Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 121 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 95 | 123 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 101 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 121 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 126 | 113 |
| PFF Coverage | 122 | 58 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 56 | 95 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (53) | 25.5 (38) |
| Rush Rate | 52.6% (75) | 47.4% (101) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Betting Pick
I’m a fan of this Bowling Green program and think it's heading in the right direction. I backed it to go over its win total of 4 games this season, as highlighted in myMAC win totals preview.
But this is a tough spot for the Falcons against a Buffalo team that seems to be catching its stride at the right time. The Bulls are coming off of two solid conference victories and are poised to expose the lackluster Bowling Green defense.
Bowling Green once owned the top defense against the pass but has taken a massive step backward in that category. The group can’t seem to get off the field on third down and has allowed opponents to pass for 340 yards per game.
I anticipate a fired-up Buffalo squad looking for revenge after the way last year’s game ended. Head coach Maurice Linguist won’t take kindly to the fake-kneel touchdown that ended last season’s game.
I was surprised to see this game open below a touchdown, so I'll back Buffalo in a nice revenge spot here.
