Cal vs. Colorado Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
The Colorado Buffaloes will take the field Saturday afternoon for the first time since firing head coach Karl Dorrell and defensive coordinator Chris Wilson.
The Buffaloes are the only team remaining in the FBS without a victory this season. Even though it hasn't had the easiest of schedules, Colorado has looked abysmal, being outscored by an average of 30 points per game.
Now the Buffs match up against Cal, which is 3-2 on the season and is coming off of a loss to Washington State. The Golden Bears will likely lean on their rushing attack, which has been one of the best in the nation, according to PFF.
Changes on the coaching staff likely won’t be enough to help Colorado find its first win of the season in this matchup.
California Golden Bears
Cal enters this matchup off of its first Pac-12 loss of the season to Washington State. The Golden Bears opened the year 3-1, including a loss to Notre Dame that came down to the final play.
This Cal Hail Mary attempt against Notre Dame 😯
(via @NBCSports) pic.twitter.com/QmF0QvVi6D
— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) September 17, 2022
Cal has hoisted a reliable offense behind quarterback Jack Plummer. The redshirt senior is averaging 35 passes per game while managing 7.2 yards per attempt. Plummer has tossed eight touchdowns with only two interceptions on the season.
The rushing attack has thrived behind freshman running back Jaydn Ott. Ott is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and has punched in five touchdowns while averaging over 100 yards per game.
He single-handedly destroyed Arizona by rushing for 274 yards and three touchdowns on only 19 carries.
Ott has a real chance of reproducing that effort against a horrific Colorado front seven.
The Golden Bears’ defense has been serviceable through the first month, allowing 22 points per game. The unit ranks 111th in Success Rate against the rush and 72nd against the pass.
Cal has come away with seven interceptions on the season and could be in store for more in this matchup against a freshman quarterback.
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado is set to play its first game without Dorrell and Wilson. It will be interesting to see what changes interim head coach Mike Sanford implements.
Dorrell led the Buffaloes to the Alamo Bowl in the COVID-riddled 2020 season. He was also awarded Pac-12 Coach of the Year just two seasons ago, and now is canned after an 0-5 start.
But Colorado’s main problem doesn’t come from the coaching staff, but rather a roster that just doesn’t have much talent.
The program is 0-5 on the season while being outscored by an average of 30 points per game. Those losses have come against four Power Five opponents and Air Force is the cream of the crop in the Mountain West.
The Buffaloes have dealt with a quarterback carousel through the first month of the season. The incumbent starter, Brendon Lewis, lost his job after just two games. Backup J.T. Shrout was also benched after three starts thanks to two horrific performances against Air Force and Minnesota.
The keys to the offense have been handed to freshman Owen McCown, who has been the best of the three options. In his two starts, McCown has completed 56% of his passes, tallying 6.2 yards per attempt.
The defense has been even worse this season, allowing every opponent to exceed 38 points while giving up 7.4 yards per play. The front seven can’t stop the run, allowing 6.7 yards per carry and nearly 300 rushing yards per contest.
The secondary is allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt and ranks dead last in the nation in coverage, per PFF.
I’d be surprised to see this defense stop a high-school offense.
Cal vs. Colorado Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cal and Colorado match up statistically:
Cal Offense vs. Colorado Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 129 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 128 | 125 |  |
| Havoc | 50 | 129 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 126 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Colorado Offense vs. Cal Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 97 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 82 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 33 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 85 | 128 |
| PFF Coverage | 91 | 131 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 64 | 31 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.1 (97) | 26.0 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 47.6% (104) | 50.3% (84) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Cal vs. Colorado Betting Pick
The Colorado program is in disarray heading into this matchup.
It's playing its first game with a new head coach and defensive coordinator. Occasionally, when a program fires its head coach, it ignites a fire under the rest of the team the following week.
This isn’t one of those instances.
There are way too many holes on this roster to see any signs of improvement. The offense is relying on a third-string freshman quarterback to move the ball. The defense ranks among the bottom of the country in every advanced metric and is allowing 7.4 yards per play.
Cal will surely right the ship after its recent loss to Washington State, and what better way than against a Colorado program that is at rock bottom?
Ott should have a similar output to the one he had when he rushed for 279 yards against Arizona two weeks ago.
The Buffaloes have been double-digit underdogs in all five games this season. They’re 0-5 against the spread, missing the cover by an average of 10 points per game.
I anticipate that trend to continue as the Golden Bears are poised to roll.
