College Football Odds & Predictions: Collin Wilson’s Top Saturday Picks for Hawaii Bowl, Camellia Bowl

The second Saturday of bowl season is officially upon us.

With seven matchups ranging from Troy vs. Duke in the Birmingham Bowl early in the day to Utah vs. Northwestern in the Las Vegas Bowl later at night, we have a solid day of college football ahead of us.

My Action Network betting card for Saturday doesn't feature any of the aforementioned matchups, however. Instead, I'm turning my attention to Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois in the Camellia Bowl and Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl to close out the night.

I'm looking for Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor to have an explosive day, while third-string Chanticleers quarterback Ethan Vasko keeps things close enough on the island.

So, let's dive into my breakdowns and picks for both Saturday college football bowl games below.

Collin Wilson's College Football Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

The Camellia Bowl enters its 10th consecutive season of pitting the Sun Belt against the MAC.

All eyes will descend on Montgomery, Alabama, to the Cramton Bowl, famous for being the first stadium in the south to have a night game under the lights in 1927.

The Sun Belt has taken six of the past nine in this bowl, as Arkansas State and Northern Illinois look to enter the offseason on a positive note. These teams last met in the 2011 GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile with the Huskies taking home the victory.

Head coach Thomas Hammock will look to get Northern Illinois off the mat after the program lost seven straight bowl games since facing Arkansas State in 2011.

The Huskies needed a victory over Kent State and Western Michigan over the final two weeks of the season to qualify for a bowl, as five of their wins came in MAC play.

Arkansas State also finished with six wins on the season, finding an offensive groove in the second half of the year. The Red Wolves posted 114 points in their final two home games against Louisiana and Texas State to snag a spot in the postseason.

This is Arkansas State's third trip to the Camellia Bowl, with its last win coming over Florida International in 2019.

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Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones found offensive continuity once making a change at the quarterback position. Freshman Jaylen Raynor took over starting duties at the end of September against Southern Miss and never looked back.

With an average depth of target of 13.2 yards, Raynor ended the season with 15 touchdowns to just six interceptions.

Arkansas State became a dangerous team in terms of downfield passing, finishing the season top-25 in pass explosives. Raynor posted 17 big-time throws to just three turnover-worthy plays on passes over 20 yards.

The freshman was just as deadly on the ground, running inside zone read with running backs Zak Wallace and Ja'Quez Cross. The trio combined for 18 rushing touchdowns in coordinator Keith Heckendorf's fast-paced offense.

The Red Wolves did struggle in producing a top 100 rank in Quality and Finishing Drives, so scoring in the Camellia Bowl should come from explosives.

The defense, meanwhile, finished top-35 in coverage grading, per PFF.

Linebacker Javante Mackey led the team in tackles but has since hit the transfer portal with a commitment to Mississippi State.

There are plenty of Havoc contributors on the defense, as edge rushers Thurman Geathers and Keyron Crawford combined for 78 pressures.

The Red Wolves run one of the highest rates of zone coverage, opting to play exclusively in quarters. Cornerback Samy Johnson leads the pack, ranking top-20 individually in passes defensed.

As a former Northern Illinois running back, head coach Thomas Hammock loves to pound the rock. Antario Brown leads the ground attack with more than 1,100 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.

Sixth-year quarterback Rocky Lombardi generated 112 yards off designed runs, but nine fumbles added on to his career total of 28.

The Huskies prefer outside zone read concepts with a middling Success Rate at 49%.

Brown notched 25 explosive runs this season, leading Northern Illinois to a top-20 rank in Rush Expected Points.

The Huskies struggled defensively to stop opposing rush attacks. The 4-2-5 defense labored against inside zone, posting a poor 44% Success Rate against the concept.

Northern Illinois failed to rank inside the top 100 in Line Yards and fell to 130th in Stuff Rate.

While the Huskies failed to produce any success against the rush, the back seven proved to be one of the best teams in the MAC in stopping the pass. Northern Illinois shined in Cover 1, producing a rank of 16th in Passing Downs Success Rate.

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Northern Illinois lost one of its leading players to the transfer portal.

Center Pete Nygra entered the transfer portal before the bowl game and decided that he will play for Louisville next season. Nygra played 1,529 snaps at center over the past two seasons, as opposing pass-rushers failed to record a single sack against him.

Fifth-year senior Logan Zschernitz has logged 2,326 career snaps at right guard but now plans to play center for the first time in his college career.

Lombardi and Brown will have success in outside zone attempts, but the line of scrimmage and run-blocking assignments will be under a microscope for Northern Illinois.

Arkansas State is the more capable offense in terms of creating the explosive play with Raynor. The Huskies will pivot between nickel and dime packages with Cover 3, a look that Raynor has a 49% Success Rate and a 14% explosive play rate against.

The Red Wolves' rushing attack and success on standard downs provide the biggest advantage against a Northern Illinois team that finished 117th in tackles for loss.

Pick: Arkansas State -3 or Better

Aloha! Welcome to the 20th iteration of the Hawaii Bowl, where two rush-heavy offenses will look to cap off the 2023 season. Coastal Carolina and San Jose State will each make their first appearance in Honolulu, playing in the new Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.

The Chanticleers represent the first Sun Belt team to ever compete in the bowl, making the longest trip of any team to reach the island of O'ahu.

First-year head coach Tim Beck continued the success of the Coastal Carolina program, making a fourth consecutive bowl game. Despite injuries and transfers for the most important pieces to the roster, the Chanticleers had an outside chance of making the Sun Belt Championship appearance before losing to James Madison in the season finale.

Six of Coastal Carolina's wins came against bowl teams — an impressive feat considering philosophical changes on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball in 2023.

San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan will take his team on another trip to the state of Hawaii. The Spartans have traveled to Honolulu three times since the 2020 season, beating the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in every instance.

Brennan saw his team end the regular season on a heater, winning the final six games of the season. However, the old BCS formula of computer polls kept San Jose State from attending the Mountain West title game.

While the Hawaii Bowl is a nice consolation prize, it has even more meaning for Brennan, who looks to honor his late cousin and legendary Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan.

Coastal Carolina's roster could best be described as fluid.

Former quarterback Grayson McCall hit the transfer portal and committed to NC State, removing any question of playing in the bowl game. Backup Jarrett Guest also elected to enter the portal, giving third-string Kansas transfer Ethan Vasko starting duties.

The second-year quarterback previously started three games in November, posting four touchdowns and a single interception. The greatest value that Vasko adds is the ability to run McCall's playbook, as he generated 340 yards rushing on just 38 attempts.

Offensive concepts changed with the hiring of Beck, as the new-look Chanticleers have moved away from man-blocking schemes to inside zone. Coastal Carolina transformed into a more methodical offense, ranking 21st in Quality Drives while maintaining a high level of explosives from a rush and pass perspective.

While the offense found balance, the defense found success against the pass but not against the rush.

The Chanticleers' 3-3-5 personnel finished top-20 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and allowing explosives. Defensive coordinator Craig Naivar used an even split of Cover 1 and Cover 3, grading out in the top 30 in terms of PFF coverage grades.

Coastal Carolina struggled to stop the ground game, falling outside the top 100 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

The good news for the Chants defense is its ability to stop opponents in one-on-one tackling. Coastal Carolina finished 16th in broken tackles allowed, negating dozens of explosives plays in Sun Belt play.

San Jose State suffered a few notable losses to the transfer portal since the conclusion of the regular season.

Tight end Dominick Mazotti averaged 14 yards per catch on 36 targets this season but has committed to play for UMass next year.

The biggest portal loss comes with left tackle Fernando Carmona, as no player in the past two years has logged more than 14 snaps at the blindside tackle position.

Carmona has been the primary driver for the success of quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. The Hawaii transfer posted 278 yards in scrambles this season compared to just 32 from designed rushing attempts.

San Jose State has an even distribution of run and pass attempts, utilizing its strength of inside zone.

The Spartans boast one of the most explosive ground attacks in the country thanks to the running back combination of Kairee Robinson and Quali Conley.

However, the numbers decline in terms of Success Rate and explosives when it comes to the passing game.

On defense, SJSU struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard, as efficiency fluctuated within the multiple personnel from down to down. San Jose State posted horrific numbers against the rush in 3-4 and 2-5-4 personnel but eliminated explosives in various nickel packages.

The most consistent issue for the Spartans was tackling, ranking 108th, per PFF. San Jose State allowed plenty of ground explosives because of poor tackling, with opponents posting 63 runs of at least 10 yards this season.

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San Jose State would have the upper hand in terms of intangibles off the field. The Spartans have played and won numerous times in Honolulu over the past three seasons, while Coastal Carolina will make the longest travel plans of any other team.

Pictures of shirtless head coaches with dance teams have captured the attention of the public, but this game is about two mobile quarterbacks and the tackling ability of each defense.

Cordeiro is not alone in creating yards in space for the San Jose State offense, as Robinson and Conley each average 4.2 yards after contact.

Coastal Carolina's ability to stop runners in space has been one of its biggest advantages this season. A handful of starters on the Chanticleers defense own a missed tackle percentage below 10% on the season, including nickel Juan Powell and cornerback Keonte Lusk.

Meanwhile, San Jose State has consistently struggled with missed tackles, as Jordan Pollard and Tre Jenkins — the Spartans' second- and third-leading tacklers — have a missed tackle rate above 20%.

Both teams will struggle with special teams and Finishing Drives, but San Jose State's inability to tackle will be the difference-maker.

The Spartans also have additional problems in keeping teams out of the end zone, ranking 132nd in red-zone efficiency. No team in the country has a worse defensive red-zone touchdown rate than the Spartans.

Pick: Coastal Carolina +10 or Better

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