You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, we split our two favorite chalk wagers. San Jose State won with ease, while I'm pretty sure Iowa State just missed another field goal.
For Week 6, we both went with a double-digit home conference favorite with one kicking off at noon and the other in prime-time.
YTD: 6-4, +1.6 units
Stuckey: Florida -10.5
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
Props to Missouri for the way it fought against Georgia last week. After losing in devastating fashion in overtime at Auburn the week prior, the Tigers regrouped and led for most of the game against the defending national champions before eventually falling short.
How much will they have left in the tank for a trip to the Swamp after two exhausting results? It may be close to empty.
Meanwhile, Florida essentially had a bye on Sunday against FCS Eastern Washington with 80-plus players seeing action.
Even on a short week, the Gators should have a major rest advantage and likely spent a good chunk of the past two weeks preparing for this game That's important in a matchup of two coaches with plenty of familiarity with each other from their Sun Belt days.
I expect a spirited effort from the Gators against a Missouri team that beat them by one in overtime last year, which eventually led to the dismissal of Florida head coach Dan Mullen a few days later. Prior to that contest, each of the previous eight meetings was decided by at least 17 points with each team winning four straight up.
This spot sets up for a comfortable win for the Gators, who I believe come into this meeting a bit underrated. Florida was the only team in the country to face three top-20 opponents across its first four games, and Anthony Richardson has played much better over the past two weeks.
For what it's worth, Missouri has faced only one dual-threat quarterback in 2022 in Adrian Martinez, and it ended with a 40-13 loss at Kansas State.
The Florida defense has struggled to start the season, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass and Run, but the schedule has been brutal. Facing a very mediocre Missouri offense that ranks outside the top 100 in both aforementioned categories should serve as a nice break for the Gators.
I expect the Gators to jump out early and extend late against a Missouri offense that isn't built to come from behind.
Wilson: USC -13
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 65 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 65 -110o / -110u | -480 |
There will be plenty of opportunities to fade USC the rest of the season with a major looming turnover regression on the horizon. However, this isn't one of those weeks, in my opinion.
Washington State comes to Southern California with a defensive resume that includes Wisconsin, Colorado State, California and FCS Idaho — not exactly a murderers' row of offenses.
They faced only one above-average offense all season in Oregon, and the results weren't pretty. The Ducks scored 44 with Bo Nix throwing for 428 yards. Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams must be salivating.
Everything starts with the rushing attack in Lincoln Riley's offense. And the Trojans should be able to get the ground game going with an advantage in the trenches when it comes to run blocking.
That should open up everything else for Williams, who should have enough time to exploit a secondary that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in pass explosiveness.
I also like the matchup on the other side of the ball.
USC's run defense has been beyond dreadful, ranking 118th nationally in EPA per Rush. Well, that might not hurt here against a Washington State Air Raid offense that rarely runs the ball. And when the Cougars have run the ball, they've graded out as successful on only 32% of those plays, which ranks 126th in FBS.
The biggest strength of the USC defense lies in its pass rush. For the season, it ranks 16th in the country in Passing Downs Sack Rate. The Cougars' offensive line ranks outside the top 100 in that category.
Expect a few negative plays due to pressure generated up front, which will lead to enough stops for USC to get the ball back to eventually pull away.
