Clemson vs. Florida State Odds
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -114 | 51 -110o / -110u | +160 |
Clemson looks to stay undefeated when it travels to Tallahassee to take on Florida State on Saturday.
The Tigers have survived two big tests already on the season on the road against Wake Forest and at home against NC State. Now, comes a big-time test on the road against a resurgent Florida State team that gave them quite a scare last year.
Florida State lost a heartbreaker against the Wolfpack last weekend in Raleigh, 19-17, which now puts it at 4-2 on the season. But the signs of improvement are there for the Seminoles.
However, three straight weeks of playing top-25 opponents is brutal, especially with the toughest test yet coming to town on Saturday.
Clemson Tigers
Tigers Offense
Clemson's offensive resurgence has a lot to do with DJ Uiagalelei making a giant leap forward after a lackluster 2021 season. Just look at the difference a year makes:
Uiagalelei's improved performance has the passing attack inside the top 40 in EPA/Pass after they were outside the top 100 last season. They should have no trouble throwing the ball against Florida State's poor secondary.
Clemson has also done a much better job of establishing a consistent rushing attack this season. Will Shipley is averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 15 runs over 10 yards and a 79.6 PFF rushing grade.
Most importantly, Clemson ranks eighth nationally in Finishing Drives, which is why its offense has been so efficient despite being fairly average in a lot of other categories.
Tigers Defense
Clemson once again has one of the best front sevens in all of college football. The Tigers rank fourth in terms of pass-rushing grade, fifth in Havoc and 17th in EPA/Play.
On the ground, the Tigers are allowing opponents to gain only 1.9 yards per carry, which is the second-best mark in the country. They also rank fourth in EPA/Play Allowed and first in explosive rushing allowed. So, it's going to be very difficult for Florida State to establish anything on the ground.
The Clemson secondary started the season out pretty poorly, ranking 94th in Passing Success Rate Allowed heading into the NC State game. However, in the last two games, they've held Devin Leary and Phil Jurkovec to under 5.5 yards per attempt and a PFF passing grade under 60.
Florida State Seminoles
Seminoles Offense
The Florida State offense has vastly improved from last season. The Seminoles rank 12th in EPA/Play, gaining 6.6 yards per play. They also come in at 26th in Success Rate.
A lot of their offensive resurgence has to do with the improvement and progression of Jordan Travis as a passer. In 2021, he averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and owned an 82.3 PFF passing grade with 11 big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays, which are pretty good numbers.
This season, he's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has a 91.1 PFF passing grade with 12 big-time throws and one turnover-worthy play.
However, in Travis' first game against an above-average secondary, he was quite poor. Travis went 14-for-29 against NC State, averaged 6.2 yards per attempt and threw two interceptions.
However, the Clemson secondary is nowhere near as good as it's been in the past, so Travis may actually be able to find some success.
Seminole Defense
Florida State's defense has been very poor this season. The Seminoles rank 97th in Success Rate Allowed, 73rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 118th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
It's almost astonishing how bad Florida State has been at keeping opponents out of the end zone once they get into Seminole territory. Florida State opponents have amassed 28 drives inside its 40-yard line, and the Noles allowed 145 points on those 28 drives (4.5 points per opportunity allowed).
That's bad news considering Clemson ranks top-10 in Finishing Drives on offense.
There are also major concerns about how Florida State is going to stop Uiagalelei. The Seminoles rank 94th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 69th in EPA/Pass and 81st in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF.
Florida State is also doing a poor job against the run. The Seminoles front seven is allowing 4.1 yards per carry while ranking 106th in Defensive Line Yards and 93rd in EPA/Rush.
It's going to be a long night for this Florida State defense.
Clemson vs. Florida State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Clemson and Florida State match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 94 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 63 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Florida State Offense vs. Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 13 |  |
| Line Yards | 64 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 103 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 29 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 68 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 81 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 60 | 109 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (59) | 27.3 (85) |
| Rush Rate | 51.7% (77) | 55.3% (57) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Clemson vs. Florida State Betting Pick
There are a ton of advantages for Clemson in this matchup.
Uiagalelei's improved passing ability against a really poor Florida State secondary will play a role, while Shipley going up against an FSU front seven that's 93rd in EPA/Rush will also help the Tigers.
Clemson's front seven should also find a way to shut down Florida State's rushing attack, making its offense one-dimensional in the process.
I have the Tigers projected as -11 favorites on the road, so I like the value on Clemson at -3.5.
