Coastal Carolina vs. UL-Monroe Odds
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -112 | 57.5 -106o / -114u | -490 |
| UL-Monroe Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -108 | 57.5 -106o / -114u | +365 |
This is the second of two Sun Belt matchups featuring East Division contenders going on the road to visit a West Division cellar dweller (Appalachian State traveling to Texas State is the other).
Coastal has had to fight in a pair of one-score games this year, but has also had comfortable wins over Army, Buffalo and Georgia State.
The line is two touchdowns in a game Coastal won 59-6 last season.
Has Coastal's defense regressed that far that this game might be within two scores, or is this a value opportunity?
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
The Chanticleers offense has been the toast of the Group of Five in recent years.
Jamey Chadwell’s shotgun spread triple-option dials up big numbers on overmatched opponents. He’s also been fortunate enough that his passing game has been authored by an NFL-caliber talent in quarterback Grayson McCall.
SP+ has this as the 20th-best offense in America.
McCall has been a superstar as usual. His efficiency is a bit down from 2021 when he posted the highest passer rating in history, but he is still completing passes at a 69.7% clip and has thrown for 1,336 yards with 14 touchdowns and just one interception.
McCall helms an offense that is equally as efficient with the rush (23rd in FBS) as it is passing the ball (2nd).
Coastal lost a lot of upperclassmen from last season’s team and while the offense has hummed along, the defensive side of the ball has been a work in progress.
The rushing defense has been solid, but the passing defense has struggled as Coastal ranks 90th in SP+ defensive rating. Coastal’s pass defense is ninth in rush efficiency and 115th in pass efficiency in Beta_Rank.
Coastal has countered its 112th-ranked Success Rate Allowed on passing plays with big Havoc plays. They already have eight interceptions and 13 sacks on the young season, good for 22nd in Havoc Rate.
But overall, this is a secondary that can be had. They’ve had to win some shootouts, which they’ve done. Cardiac Coastal is 5-0 on the season, but they needed late game heroics to defeat FCS Gardner-Webb and Georgia Southern.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
The Warhawks are consistently at the bottom of the Sun Belt West and consistently in the bottom 100 of FBS ratings.
Despite already bagging an upset win over in-state arch-rival Louisiana-Lafayette, this season appears to be no different.
Predictably, ULM was blown out by Texas and Alabama. The Warhawks beat FCS Nicholls, got the aforementioned win over the Ragin' Cajuns and were handled, 45-28, by a middling Arkansas State team.
Don’t be fooled by a surprise win at home in a rivalry game against a Louisiana team that is having a really tough go of things.
ULM is 106th in offensive SP+ and 113th in defense. It’s hard to find any metric where they are not near the bottom of FBS — maybe middle of the FBS in Success Rate defending the rush? It’s hard to imagine that will be enough to even remotely slow down this Coastal triple-option attack.
ULM is not prepared to attack the Chanticleers' weakness in the secondary. Quarterback Chandler Rogers is having a tough season and this passing attack is 96th in EPA. Rogers is completing 64% of his passes for only 787 yards and has matched his four big-time throws with four turnover-worthy plays.
He's also been hit a lot as 26% of pressures on Rogers turn into sacks. For reference, McCall is at 16.2% and someone like … say, Bryce Young is at 12.8%.
Coastal’s high-risk/high-reward secondary won’t be risking much against Rogers and will be rewarded against this offense.
Coastal Carolina vs. UL-Monroe Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Coastal Carolina and UL-Monroe match up statistically:
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. UL-Monroe Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 119 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 112 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 63 | 94 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UL-Monroe Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 111 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 69 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 67 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 126 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 98 | 131 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (109) | 29.5 (122) |
| Rush Rate | 59.5% (26) | 62.0% (18) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Coastal Carolina vs. UL-Monroe Betting Pick
I like Coastal to cover the number, especially as it sits below two touchdowns.
I believe this is a “get right” game for a Coastal team that is one of the best in the Group of Five. They have their flaws on defense, but their attacking strengths actually align perfectly with ULM’s dicey pass game, which will be unable to capitalize on Coastal’s weakness.
Coastal hung 59 on this team last season and there’s no reason to think they can’t put up at least seven touchdowns again as this offense is functioning at a high level.
I believe this line is lower than it should be because of ULM's win over Louisiana, who people might not realize is significantly worse than recent versions.
I’ll take the Chants at -13 and play it to -16.5.
