Colorado vs. Oregon State Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -108 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +1160 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -112 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -2800 |
It's not quite Pac-12 After Dark, but this matchup could give you a sweat deep into the night on the West Coast as the Colorado Buffaloes take on the Oregon State Beavers.
Colorado picked up its first win of the season last week, outlasting Cal in overtime. It was interim head coach Mike Sanford's debut, and he had his players playing the best ball we've seen all season.
However, with a big step up in competition here, can they bring the same energy?
Oregon State enters this matchup 5-2 on the year after taking down a potent Washington State club. With starting quarterback Chance Nolan out, the Beavers leaned heavily on the ground game and had tremendous success.
That success may just carry over to this matchup, but how will it impact our angle? Let's dive in and find out.
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado's ability to rise up off the deck for its new head coach was impressive, and its effort was valiant as 15-point underdogs.
However, the defense is what kept it in the game, as the offense committed three turnovers and struggled on the ground.
Heading into this matchup, the Buffaloes offense is a big question mark, as starting quarterback Owen McCown is questionable with a neck injury. Although, they appear to be in good hands if McCown is out because backup JT Shrout went 8-for-12 in relief and tossed the game-winning touchdown last week.
Whoever is at the helm is going to have a tough matchup, as the Oregon State secondary has been very stout. The Beavers rank 28th in opponent completion percentage and 38th in yards per pass allowed. They're also 29th in pass coverage, according to PFF.
The Buffaloes will need to establish the run if they want to hang in this game, as the Beavers sit 91st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. However, Colorado's effort last week doesn't inspire much confidence.
Oregon State Beavers
As I alluded to in the intro, Oregon State put on a rushing clinic against Washington State, as Damien Martinez averaged 6.9 yards per carry. The Beavers run the ball at the 30th-highest rate in the country, and I expect them to deploy a very rush-heavy attack in this matchup.
Colorado has been ravaged on the ground, ranking 130th in yards per rush allowed. However, it's also severely outmatched in the trenches. The Beavers own an edge in Line Yards, ranking 38th compared to a mark of 114th for the Buffs.
Establishing dominance on the ground could also open up explosive plays through the air as well. Oregon State may have taken the ball out of Ben Gulbranson's hands last week, but he proved to be plenty capable against Stanford. As a result, he will be able to succeed even in a limited capacity against Colorado.
The Buffaloes' secondary has also been cooked this season, ranking 119th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 128th in pass coverage. The Beavers should be able to go up and down the field at will in this matchup.
Colorado vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Oregon State match up statistically:
Colorado Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 74 | |
| Pass Success | 122 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 68 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 38 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 119 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 39 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 117 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 126 | 39 |
| PFF Coverage | 128 | 29 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 31 | 111 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (57) | 29.1 (117) |
| Rush Rate | 50.4% (84) | 58.7% (30) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Colorado vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
The Beavers should be in total control of this matchup, and I find it hard to believe Colorado will play up to it competition once again.
The Beavers' domination will come with a specific game script that will feature long, methodical drives and very little time of possession for Colorado.
That game script has all of the makings of an under, and we're getting the total above a key number in 48. So, be sure to find the best number available.
Pick: Under 48.5 ⋅ Play to 48 |
