Duke vs. Georgia Tech Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -106 | 53.5 -114o / -106u | -178 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -114 | 53.5 -114o / -106u | +146 |
Georgia Tech has not had the season it envisioned after firing head coach Geoff Collins a month into the season.
However, it did start to get back on track last weekend and picked up a win to improve to 2-3. Could it potentially get back to .500 this week against a conference rival?
Duke, meanwhile, has only one loss and has already exceeded its preseason win total of 3.5.
New head coach Mike Elko could be looking at bowl eligibility in his first season, but the Blue Devils really need to win this game because the rest of the conference schedule gets much harder from here.
Duke Blue Devils
Blue Devils Offense
Not many expected Duke to be a competitive team this season, but it's far exceeded those expectations so far. Most of this has been driven by the Blue Devils offense, which has been shockingly good.
Duke ranks 21st in Offensive Success Rate, including 35th through the air and 10th on the ground. They've scored at least 27 points in every game and are staring down potential bowl eligibility with a 4-1 record to this point.
While the defenses that Duke has faced this year haven't been great, all four FBS defenses have been ranked between 60th and 82nd by SP+. Against these teams, Duke has had Offensive Success Rates all above the 62nd percentile, including 95th percentile or higher in two of these.
Georgia Tech’s defense is worse than all of these previous opponents. Even though the Yellow Jackets have improved over the last couple of weeks, this should be one of the weaker foes that Duke has faced this season.
Blue Devils Defense
This Duke defense has been up and down all season. It shut out Temple and had decent games against Virginia and Northwestern.
But it was shredded by Kansas to the tune of 35 points and an 89th-percentile Offensive Success Rate in its only loss of the season.
The good news for Duke is that the Georgia Tech offense is not close to what Kansas’ is (never thought I’d say that). The Blue Devils have had respectable showings against the other lower-tier offenses they've played, which will be similar to what Georgia Tech has shown this season.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Yellow Jackets Offense
When Collins arrived in Atlanta, his plan was to transition away from the triple option offense that Paul Johnson ran here for so many years. Collins never successfully transitioned to another offense before being fired a couple of weeks ago.
Without a true offensive identity, this Georgia Tech team has struggled for the past few seasons. It ranks 108th in Offensive Success Rate, coming in at 103rd passing and 96th rushing. This unit comes in as the 87th-best offense in the country, per SP+.
Georgia Tech has not had an offensive output that was above average against an FBS opponent this year. However, it has faced mostly top-30 defenses.
The exception to that was last week against a Pitt defense that ranks 76th by SP+. The Yellow Jackets put up just a fifth-percentile Offensive Success Rate in their first game since Collins’ firing. Even though they did pick up the upset win last weekend, I don’t want to place too much faith in a bad offense playing under an interim head coach.
Yellow Jackets Defense
The Georgia Tech defense has been among the worst in FBS this season, ranking 129th in Defensive Success Rate. It hasn't had a strength on either side, ranking 119th against the pass and 128th against the run.
In its defense, though, it has played some tough offenses. Of the four FBS opponents the Yellow Jackets have played, three rank in the top 25, according to SP+, and the other was 59th. So, this defense is likely better than we've seen thus far.
There has also been some improvement from this defense in recent weeks. After allowing Success Rates in the 80th percentile or higher in each of their first three games — including against FCS Western Carolina — it allowed Success Rates in the 48th and 61st percentiles against UCF and Pitt over the last two weeks.
While that still isn't great, it's an improvement and a sign that this defense is coming together.
Duke vs. Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Duke and Georgia Tech match up statistically:
Duke Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 19 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 91 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 56 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 75 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Duke Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 17 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 116 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 43 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 118 | 54 |
| PFF Coverage | 95 | 69 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 62 | 99 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (119) | 26.0 (54) |
| Rush Rate | 58.8% (29) | 54.6% (60) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Duke vs. Georgia Tech Betting Pick
Duke’s offense has been more than impressive enough to convince me that it should win this game. Georgia Tech isn’t strong on either side of the ball, and its play last week in its first post-Collins game wasn’t good enough to give me any faith in its offense.
There's a chance that the Georgia Tech defense shows up and this game goes under, but I feel more comfortable taking the team that has played better all season.
This line opened at 3.5 but has dropped down to Duke -3 at the time of writing. I don’t believe this line movement to be correct, so I’ll be taking the Blue Devils at the key number of three.
