Duquesne vs. Florida State Odds
| Duquesne Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+41.5 -108 | 56.5 -109o / -112u | +1600 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-41.5 -113 | 56.5 -109o / -112u | -10000 |
You're likely not keen to watch Duquesne football. You might not be keen to watch Florida State football, given it fell short of bowl eligibility last season.
But there's always gambling!
The big storyline of this game: Florida State lost to an FCS opponent for the first time ever last season with a 20-17 loss to Jacksonville State, while Duquesne picked up its first-ever win over an FBS opponent with a 28-26 triumph over Ohio.
It has me wondering if Mike Norvell will be extra motivated. Conversely, how important is a second FBS victory to Dukes head coach Jerry Schmitt?
FSU opened as 34.5-point favorites, but the line quickly jumped to 39.5, with a 39 being stranded at FOX Bet. The total opened at 54 but jumped to 56.5, with 56 being stranded again at FOX Bet.
Let's dive in.
Duquesne Dukes
In 2019, Schmitt became the winningest coach in Duquesne history, picking up his 98th victory. And with the win over Ohio, the Dukes became the first NEC team to ever defeat an FBS foe.
In conclusion, Schmitt is a good football coach who leads a proud NEC football team.
Since losing their final three games in 2019, the Dukes are 9-2 in conference play and 11-3 overall (including the COVID 19-shortened spring season). They suffered two losses in October last season but were down to their third-string quarterback in both, losing the first game to eventual NEC champion Sacred Heart.
Second-string quarterback David Perrantes actually started most of the season after first-stringer Joe Mischler suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 against TCU.
So, I'm trying to ascertain if there's some sort of quarterback battle here. Mischler was named to the preseason All-NEC team, but Perrantes put up numbers in a few games, including:
- 316 yards vs. Bryant (39-34 win)
- 215 yards @ LIU (34-28 win)
- 329 yards vs. Central Connecticut (31-27 win)
- 241 yards @ Wagner (44-0 win)
But the issue might not be under center. The offense has to replace its top five wide receivers by yards from last season, including two All-NEC selections.
Running back Billy Lucas returns after finishing second in the conference in rushing yards, but the offensive line has to replace its whole left side.
This is a top-notch defensive unit that returns important players at all three levels — including all three defensive linemen — after finishing first in the conference in rushing defense, second in overall defense and third in scoring defense.
But the Dukes replaced their defensive coordinator. Mike Craig takes over for longtime DC Dave Opfar, who retired following last season.
Craig has spent the last six years as DC at Cal and also served under the Schmitt-Opfar regime as linebackers coach from 2010-13. But it's still a change, nonetheless.
Florida State Seminoles
The 'Noles are coming off four straight losing seasons, something they haven't done since 1973-76. And after an 0-4 start to 2021 — including the bad loss to Jacksonville State as 26-point favorites — Norvell's seat was hot.
But Florida State rallied to win five of its final eight. The offense rallied around Jordan Travis, while the defense propelled from horrific to ACC average.
There's plenty of reason for optimism.
For starters, the Seminoles suffered four losses by one score last season, including three by a field goal. Combine that with a Year 3 jump by Norvell, and we should see normal positive regression in Tallahassee.
Plus, the Seminoles bring back a lot. Sixteen starters return — eight on both sides of the ball — joined by key transfers Mycah Pittman (WR, Oregon), Jared Verse (DE, Albany) and Tatum Bethune (LB, UCF).
Altogether, the Seminoles have the eighth-highest TARP number in FBS (12) and the highest Defensive TARP (5).
Offensively, keep an eye on Travis. He was the second-leading Seminole rusher last season almost out of necessity, considering the offensive line ranked 121st in PFF pass blocking grade.
But that line returns four starters and 101 total FBS starts. The addition of Pittman should help, although I still expect this to be a run-first offense.
Defensively, keep an eye on All-ACC safety Jammie Robinson. He transferred in from South Carolina last season and proceeded to lead the team in tackles (85) and interceptions (four).
Jammie Robinson's energy and intensity, combined with his athletic traits, made him an All-ACC defender in Year 1 at FSU.
He checks in at No. 3 on our list of FSU's 40 Most Important Players.https://t.co/0OqJURtagypic.twitter.com/hzTQwQlvp6
— Brendan Sonnone (@BSonnone) July 17, 2022
Everything in Tallahassee looks great, except the schedule. It's brutal. Nonconference games against LSU, Louisiana and Florida are combined with road games against Louisville, NC State and Miami.
This opening game might be more important than expected.
Duquesne vs. Florida State Betting Pick
Florida State is a high-experience team on the up-and-up in an FCS prove-it spot ahead of a bananas schedule.
I like this spot for the Seminoles.
I generally like betting teams high in TARP in the early going, and Norvell's squad firmly sits in that category. The loss to FCS Jacksonville State last year stung for Norvell, and I'm sure he doesn't want it to happen again.
We also know the Dukes are working with an entire new WR corps and underneath a new DC. Moreover, the Dukes are either in a QB battle or relying on a player who was injured for all of 2021.
Imagine if these were two Power Five squads instead of Florida State and Duquesne. You'd take the high-TARP team with a third-year head coach over a low-TARP team with question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and defensive coordinator, right? Especially in Week 0.
Take it all into consideration, and the line movement makes sense. This has blowout written all over it. I'm betting the Seminoles to cover the 39-point spread until the key number of 42.
