Thursday College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday nights are for football.
Along with the NFL's Falcons vs. Buccaneers matchup, we have two college football games on the docket: Texas State vs. Troy in the Sun Belt and Sam Houston vs. UTEP in Conference USA.
With some early-night and late-night action on deck, Action Network contributors Cody Goggin and John Feltman broke down both games and came through with a pick for each.
Continue reading for college football odds and picks for Thursday, October 3.
Texas State vs Troy Pick for Thursday
By Cody Goggin
The Texas State Bobcats will go on the road to take on the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. This game is set to kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU from Veteran Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama.
Texas State (2-2) is currently a 13-point favorite in this matchup over the 1-4 Troy Trojans. This game has an over/under set at 57 points, indicating this game may see a bit more scoring than average.
I personally think this will be the case, which leads to my favorite pick of the game. Let’s dive into my Texas State vs. Troy predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 3.
Texas State Bobcats
After generating some buzz as a potential G5 playoff candidate, Texas State has fallen out of the race over the last two weeks with back-to-back close losses to Arizona State and Sam Houston State.
The Bobcats showed promise of an improved defense over the first two weeks of the season, but it now largely appears this team is similar to what they were last season.
Texas State currently ranks 44th on offense and 109th on defense in SP+, compared to 37th and 110th last season.
It also sits 44th in offensive success rate but just 104th in finishing drives and 83rd in explosiveness. It's also 133rd in havoc rate allowed.
The Bobcats pass the ball 51% of the time and rank 69th in success rate and 97th in PPA through the air. When rushing, they are 33rd in success rate and 61st in PPA, but they only run the ball at the 74th-highest rate in FBS.
Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 465 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions this season while averaging 0.24 EPA per dropback. The James Madison transfer has a 57% dropback success rate as well, which is a really solid rate.
Texas State’s defense was the weak point of the team last season, and while it hasn't shown a ton of improvement in terms of SP+, it has still posted some decent numbers. The Bobs come at 22nd in yards per pass attempt allowed, ninth in PFF tackling grade and 18th in PFF pass rushing grade.
This team currently ranks first in defensive success rate and passing success rate allowed, but there are a couple of games of missing data that appear to be skewing this.
In its lone FBS game with PBP data this season, Texas State allowed an 86th percentile success rate, 70th percentile EPA per play and 5.93 yards per play to Sam Houston. The Bearkats gashed them on the run with a 93rd percentile EPA per rush compared to 32nd percentile through the air.
Troy Trojans
Troy is now 1-4 in the post-Jon Sumrall era. The Trojans have fallen this season to Nevada, Memphis, Iowa and UL Monroe, with their only win coming against Florida A&M.
Troy ranks 77th in offensive success rate, 69th in explosiveness, and 110th in havoc allowed. However, it's eighth in finishing drives so far.
The Trojans have a 50-50 split in terms of pass-to-run ratio and are 92nd in rushing success rate and 64th in passing success rate. Their rushing game has been more explosive, as they are 24th in rushing explosiveness compared to 104th in passing explosiveness.
The key player for this offense is receiver Devonte Ross, who leads the squad with 28 catches for 408 yards and six touchdowns on the year.
Troy’s defense ranks 130th in success rate, 111th in finishing drives, 120th in havoc, and 113th in average field position. It's also 54th in explosiveness allowed, which has come primarily from the passing defense, which ranks 38th in explosiveness allowed compared to 93rd on the ground.
The Trojans come into this game at 132nd in rushing success rate allowed and 122nd in rushing PPA allowed. They have only been slightly better against the pass, where they are 118th in passing success rate allowed and 108th in passing PPA allowed.
Texas State vs Troy Prediction
Neither of these teams are particularly strong on defense, but I believe the worst unit in this game is the Troy defense. Additionally, Texas State’s offense is the best unit in this game, which provides for a clear matchup advantage.
On the other side, more remains unknown, but I do think Troy will still be able to manage to score some points in this game. They have an explosive rushing game that I think will be able to take advantage of a weakness in Texas State’s defense.
At 57 points, I like taking the over on this game. Texas State should be a clear favorite to win this game, but its defense still appears to have too many holes to trust at this point.
Pick: Over 57 (Play to Over 58.5)
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Sam Houston vs UTEP Pick for Thursday
By John Feltman
There's nothing like some Conference USA football on a Thursday night. The Sam Houston Bearkats (4-0, 1-0 CUSA) will travel to El Paso, Texas, to take on the UTEP Miners (0-4, 0-1).
The Bearkats enter the matchup with a 4-1 record after an impressive comeback victory over Texas State.
Meanwhile, the Miners are searching for their first victory, and they're a program looking to get back to the promise they had just a couple of years ago.
Sam Houston is a 10.5-point favorite on the spread, and the total is set at 50.5.
Let's break down my Sam Houston vs. UTEP predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 3.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Sam Houston looked dead in the first half last week against the Bobcats. But they had a furious comeback in the second half to steal a victory at home thanks to their explosive rushing attack.
The Bearkats offense was horrific last year, and they are no powerhouse on that side of the ball.
However, their point production in 2024 suggests they might have established an identity. The Bearkats ran for 324 rushing yards their last time out, averaging over six yards per carry. They threw for just 95 yards, but it ultimately didn't matter.
It was an emotional win for Sam Houston, which leads me to believe this is a flat spot for it on a short week.
Let's face it: Motivating the Bearkats for the matchup is extremely tough, especially facing a winless, dead-in-the-water UTEP team.
The Kats' offensive numbers still need improvement. They entered the matchup outside of the bottom 80 in Passing and Rushing Success Rate. They also rank in the middle of the pack in Line Yards but are still struggling.
They run the ball 66% of the time and are 83rd in seconds per play. The clock should be churning when Sam Houston has the ball.
The one area it's excelled in offensively is Finishing Drives, where it ranks 39th in the country. When it has crossed the 40-yard line, it has resulted in a touchdown more often than not.
Defensively, the metrics are awful. The Bearkats rank outside the bottom 100 in the following defensive metrics: Line Yards (132nd), Rush Success Rate (121st) and Finishing Drives (115th).
They are 13th in PFF tackle grading and 47th in PFF coverage, but the previous stats are alarmingly bad. The Miners offense is horrifically bad, but it's worth monitoring how the Bearkats' defense holds up early in the game.
I can't lay over 10 points with Sam Houston considering its defense even in what should be a very winnable matchup. The situational spot is terrible, especially with Western Kentucky on deck.
UTEP Miners
I realize UTEP is not a good football team, but the Miners' schedule thus far has yet to do them any favors. You could say UTEP lost at home to Southern Utah, and that should illustrate how bad they indeed are, but here is who else it has faced thus far: Nebraska, Liberty, and Colorado State.
Colorado State is not a top program by any stretch, but it's still above UTEP's talent level. It sounds like I'm making excuses for its poor field performance, but the teams it has faced thus far is something to keep in mind heading into the matchup.
If you think Sam Houston's defensive metrics were terrible, wait until you get ahold of these offensive metrics for UTEP. The Miners rank outside the bottom 100 in the following offensive metrics: Rush and Pass Success Rate, Havoc Allowed, Line Yards, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
Quarterback Skyler Locklear is completing 64% of his passes but has three touchdowns to four interceptions. However, Cade McConnell threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns in the Miners' last game against Colorado State.
Even more astonishing is that the offense looks to go lightning quick, as it ranks 22nd in seconds per play. That does not seem like a winning formula considering the struggles it's seen on offense for much of the season.
Defensively, it doesn't get much better. The Miners are outside the bottom 100 in Defensive Rushing and Passing Success Rate while ranking 98th in Havoc and 109th in Defensive Quality Drives.
Given how poor their offense is, the defense could be on the field for a long time, especially since they allow many of their opponents to establish solid drives most of the time.
I have no faith that this UTEP offense can put points on the board despite a decent matchup. Its lightning-quick offense could easily burn it once again.
Sam Houston vs UTEP Prediction
I lean toward backing UTEP here, but I'd like to take a much safer approach and the under. I realize the Sam Houston rushing attack has a supreme matchup, but it's pretty organized on offense.
The clock should be running for most of the game, and given that the Miners love to go lightning quick, their lack of offensive success will burn them here. I expect the Bearkats to slow things down and continue to lean heavily on their rushing attack.
Besides, Sam Houston is a middling team in line yards and horrific in Havoc Allowed, so there shouldn't be too many explosive plays throughout the contest. You can grab under 50.5 right now at BetMGM, and that's what I will be looking to lock in.
Pick: Under 50.5 (Play to 49.5)
