FIU vs. Charlotte Odds
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -530 |
Saturday presents us with a battle of bottom feeders in the Conference USA, as FIU travels to take on Charlotte.
The Panthers come into the game at 2-4 on the season, while the 49ers are currently 1-6. Neither team has won a conference game so far this season.
And despite both teams coming off of losses, they did both manage to cover the spread their last time out.
It's hard to gauge teams that are this bad when matched up against each other, but the market currently has Charlotte as more than a two-touchdown favorite over FIU. The 49ers have only been favored in one other game this season — by five points against FCS William & Mary, a game they lost outright.
Can Charlotte notch its first conference win and cover as a favorite this season? Or are the Panthers being underrated?
Florida International Panthers
The Panthers come in at last in the conference in scoring offense, averaging just 15.5 points per contest. They're also the worst when it comes to yards per game, averaging just 325.2.
Quarterback James Grayson ranks among the bottom of C-USA quarterbacks in passing yards per game (182.2) and is worst when it comes to efficiency.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers are slightly better, coming in at ninth among C-USA teams in points per game (36.8) and eighth in yards per game (444.3). They aren't doing much, but it's more than can be said for the offense.
Their are some bright spots on the team, including linebacker Gaethan Bernadel and defensive back Demetrius Hill, both of which rank top-50 in the FBS in total tackles.
Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, running back Lexington Joseph and wide receiver Kris Mitchell are making the most out of the opportunities they do get. Joseph averages 5.9 yards per carry, while Mitchell has just nine catches, but is averaging 18 yards per reception.
There's also hope that this FIU offense could really turn a corner if it can get quarterback Gunnar Holmberg back. Holmberg has been sidelined the last five games with injury, but in his one game of the season, he completed 14-of-20 attempts for 103 yards and a touchdown.
The offense could also see a significant improvement if Tyrese Chambers makes his return. Chambers missed their last game due to a foot injury and is currently listed as a game-time decision. He leads all Panthers receivers with 262 yards on 27 catches and three touchdowns on the season.
FIU has also been able to limit mistakes, ranking third among Conference USA teams when it comes to penalties. The Panthers have just 37 penalties on the season for 347 yards, averaging 57.8 yards per game.
In contrast, Charlotte has 459 penalty yards on the season and is third-to-last, averaging 65.6 yards per contest.
Charlotte 49ers
The 49ers have had success moving the ball, averaging 373 yards per contest and ranking fourth among teams in the conference when it comes to passing yards (276 per game).
Only Western Kentucky has been better when it comes to passing touchdowns.
Fifth-year quarterback Chris Reynolds has been dependable, completing 63.4% of his passes on the season for 1,301 yards.
The problem for the 49ers has been their defense. On the defensive side of the ball, the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the country, giving up 533.6 yards per game.
When it comes to defending the passing attack, no team has given up more passing touchdowns. Only one other team in all of college football (Ohio) has given up more than 3,500 yards on the season.
The 49ers rank 131st in Defensive Pass Success Rate and are 103rd when it comes to Defensive Finishing Drives.
Charlotte has yet to win a game at home this season, and despite the offensive output, I think its defense could jeopardize a win.
FIU vs. Charlotte Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how FIU and Charlotte match up statistically:
FIU Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 123 |  |
| Line Yards | 127 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 96 | 131 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 131 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 131 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 103 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Charlotte Offense vs. FIU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 97 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 113 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 109 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 60 | 108 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 121 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 131 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 59 | 88 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.6 (20) | 26.7 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 43.0% (119) | 43.0% (120) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
FIU vs. Charlotte Betting Pick
I don't trust this Charlotte team to cover a double-dight spread against anyone in the country, and definitely not against a Panthers team that is getting back its starting quarterback and No. 1 wide receiver.
And while I don't trust Charlotte to cover the spread, I have even less confidence in either of these teams' defenses. Both teams are giving up more than 35 points per contest, with Charlotte being one of the worst in the country, allowing 44.6 points per game.
I know FIU is averaging less than 16 points a game, but the return of key players should greatly improve its offensive output.
I'm taking the over in this game at 62, and I would feel comfortable taking it as high as 64.5.
The over has hit in five of Charlotte's last six games, while these two teams have combined to go over the total in their last four meetings.
Their last three matchups all saw both teams combine to go over 70 total points.
Pick: Over 64.5 or Better |
