Louisville vs Florida State Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -145 |
It's time for Friday Night Lights, and what better way to spend our time than watching a resurgent Florida State squad against an improved Louisville team?
Before last week, Louisville looked like a dumpster after being dismantled by Syracuse. The offense still struggled against UCF, but it was the defense in the second half that looked like a whole new unit.
After shutting the Knights' high-powered offense down, it will be interesting to see if that same defense shows up against the Seminoles' run-heavy approach.
Will Florida State continue to find redemption from past seasons' failures? Or will Louisville's offense find life to give its defense much-needed help?
Let's find out.
Florida State Seminoles
Putting the boneheaded mistakes aside, Florida State really impressed in its last game against LSU.
While its defense has yet to put together a complete game, the offense has looked revitalized. That was needed after struggling for consecutive seasons.
This run game has looked legit, albeit through only two games, including one against Duquesne. Now, it will look to give Louisville's defense fits.
Lead back Treshaun Ward doesn't have to do it himself as Florida State, has deployed a running back committee with Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili dealing damage as well.
They will be poised for another big game against Louisville's near-dead last ranks in Defensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.
Treshaun Ward averaged 5.71 yards before contact (per carry) on Saturday.
"8-ball, I’d say he’s very patient. I’m trying to learn how to be patient, so I’m actually learning from him. Because his patience is out this world, he reminds me of Le’veon Bell." pic.twitter.com/mqCmnfLPer
— Brendan Sonnone (@BSonnone) August 28, 2022
Much of FSU's rushing success is thanks to an offensive line that has ranked top-10 in Line Yards so far this season. But that unit's not without flaws. While it has generated a push in the run game, its pass protection has been weak and could spell trouble if it can't establish the run.
The defense has room to improve after finishing last season top-40 in Defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives. The unit also returned 95%, per TARP.
The Seminoles get a chance to turn things around against Louisville's offense, which has had to rely on Malik Cunningham extending plays with little help elsewhere.
Should the defense show up and the run game proves to be tough, this may be a long night for the Cardinals.
Louisville Cardinals
Talk about the definition of night and day in regard to this Louisville squad. First, it was a complete-game blunder against Syracuse before a stellar second half in the Bounce House at UCF.
While the offense has remained consistently bad, it's the defense that took a major leap in production in each game. The pass rush stepped up, taking away UCF's explosiveness through the air and shutting it out in the second half.
Although improved, this is still a unit with many flaws, and we cannot invest in it just because of one great half. The defense still struggles to stop the run as one of the worst rush defenses in the nation. It also hasn't shown the ability to get to the quarterback, relying on the secondary to make plays.
While Louisville's defense has shown improvement, the offense has been a disaster. Scoring only three touchdowns in two games, the offense has looked stagnant and has been unable to move the ball against poor defenses.
Cunningham can't do it all himself and has yet to even show up this season as a passer. He's thrown for 353 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions thus far and will need to find success through the air. If he doesn't, he'll continue to suffer through a one-dimensional run game.
Florida State vs. Louisville Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida State and Louisville match up statistically:
Florida State Offense vs. Louisville Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 131 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 21 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 94 | 91 |  |
| Havoc | 5 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 54 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Louisville Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 85 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 69 | 91 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 32 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 107 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 120 |
| PFF Coverage | 78 | 71 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 51 | 68 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (103) | 28.0 (97) |
| Rush Rate | 62.6% (21) | 59.4% (29) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Florida State vs. Louisville Betting Pick
When it comes to correcting early troubles, I have a lot more faith in Florida States' defense to figure it out with positional continuity and a track record of proven success.
Louisville's offense, meanwhile, has been a dumpster fire with the passing game nowhere to be found and simple schemes that allow defenses to shut down the run.
Worse yet for the Cardinals, this proves to be a matchup nightmare for their revitalized defense. Their weakness is stopping the run — something the Seminoles can exploit with a variety of weapons.
With a weak tackling unit and fewer opportunities for the offense to keep pace, this is just a poor matchup for the Cardinals with too many negative factors to overcome.
I grabbed Florida State on the open and would play this no higher than -3.
Pick: Florida State -2 ⋅ Play to -3 |
