Appalachian State vs. Texas State Odds
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -112 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | -1200 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -108 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | +720 |
Sun Belt play is in full swing, as Appalachian State heads to San Marcos to take on the Texas State Bobcats.
App State finally, finally got to play a normal, comfortable game of football last week, cruising past The Citadel, 49-0.
Texas State’s season is on the ropes, as it sits at 2-3 with wins over FCS Houston Christian and worse-than-many-FCS-teams Florida International. The Bobcats are headed home after getting blown out by James Madison in the remnants of Hurricane Ian.
That game may have been chilly, windy and rainy, but luckily Jake Spavital’s coaching seat was there to provide warmth.
Can Texas State rally to avoid getting blown out by the more talented ‘Neers? Or does App State have what it takes to cover a 19-point spread?
App State Mountaineers
What a season it has been for the Mountaineers, who played a decade’s worth of memorable games in September alone.
From the 40-point fourth quarter in a loss to Power Five, in-state rival UNC, to upsetting a top-10 team on the road, to a Hail Mary win at home while hosting ESPN's College GameDay, to blowing a 28-3 lead against their chief division foe. What in the world is going on?
The ‘Neers must have been thrilled with last week’s normal game, beating The Citadel 49-0 at home and barely breaking a sweat.
The App State offense is excellent for a Group of Five team. The Mountaineers are fifth in the country in Beta_Rank’s negative drive metric, meaning they excel at avoiding turnovers and three-and-outs.
Quarterback Chase Brice is thriving, completing 62% of his passes for 1,279 yards, along with 15 touchdowns and only two picks.
Brice has done well even when facing pressure. When Brice has been pressured, he has done a good job of keeping his eyes downfield and making plays — his ADOT% goes up two yards to 13.1, and he has five touchdowns and no picks when pressured.
He actually gets better when blitzed — his passer rating is 149.0 on the 44 drop backs this year when he has been blitzed, compared to 119.1 overall.
This is a veteran quarterback playing the best ball of his life.
Brice is supported by an excellent rushing attack. Camerun Peoples has been great as usual in Nate Noel’s absence due to injury.
Regardless of Noel’s status on Sunday, the 'Neers will have plenty of room against this accommodating Bobcats defense, which ranks 112th in effective rush in Beta_Rank and 71st in Success Rate when defending against the run.
Appalachian State’s defense is middle-of-the-pack in the FBS (56th in SP+), but it shouldn’t be challenged much by a toothless Texas State attack. App’s defensive superlative is that it does force inefficient rushes, ranking in the top 40 in Success Rate against running plays.
Texas State Bobcats
The Spavital era is spiraling in San Marcos. Spavital has eschewed high school recruiting for transfer portaling — in Texas.
The results have been discouraging.
Last week, the Bobcats were blown out by FBS newcomers James Madison, 40-13. The game was 19-0 at halftime and was never competitive; Texas State scored their second touchdown as time expired.
On offense, it’s hard to find anything that the Bobcats do well. If you want to be charitable, the rushing game rates a little better than the passing game — 89th in EPA Success Rate compared to 117th.
Quarterback Layne Hatcher has been asked to shoulder much responsibility, with an average of 41 drop backs a game. He has made 10 Big Time Throws and has 13 Turnover Worthy Plays, according to PFF charting. He has been sacked 13 times.
The top two running backs — Calvin Hill and Lincoln Pare — have combined for 4.4 yards per carry.
It’s been a long season in San Marcos.
On defense, there is one bright spot. The pass defense is pretty solid thanks to good cornerback play. The pass rush has been a bright spot in PFF grading, but the Bobcats have struggled to convert that into sacks, with only the 67th-best sack rate in the country (it drops to 74th on passing downs).
Appalachian State vs. Texas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Texas State match up statistically:
Appalachian State Offense vs. Texas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 92 | |
| Line Yards | 51 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 63 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 32 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 67 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Texas State Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 103 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 59 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 92 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 114 | 8 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 123 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (77) | 25.9 (50) |
| Rush Rate | 55.8% (49) | 48.3% (97) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Appalachian State vs. Texas State Betting Pick
It’s hard to see a world where Texas State challenges the superior Appalachian State program, but does that mean it’s smart to lay a spread that opened at 19 and has touched 20?
App State’s offense should be able to have a field day. While Texas State can create some pressure, Brice has been operating at his best when pressured. He’ll be able to find big plays regardless.
And with or without Noel, the running game has been strong.
The App State offense counters the one strength Texas State has on defense. The ‘Neers offense is No. 1 in the country at avoiding Havoc — the unit doesn't get behind the sticks or turn the ball over.
Efficient drives against a bad defense equals a lot of points.
Let’s avoid the backdoor, or randomness — like Hatcher hitting a few deep balls. Let’s trust the App State offense to apply pressure and find the end zone repeatedly.
I’ll take the App State team total over 36.5, and play it to 37.5
