Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 45.5 -106o / -114u | +126 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 45.5 -106o / -114u | -52 |
Boston College travels to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech in the first home game under new head coach Brent Pry. Hokies fans will be hopping, as Pry looks to restore the blue-collar, lunch-pail identity of the Frank Beamer era.
Both teams are looking to get off the schneid after disasters in Week 1. Both Boston College and Virginia Tech were in winnable positions against Rutgers and Old Dominion, respectively, but lost the turnover battles and made crucial late-game errors.
I mean, look at these win probability charts, courtesy of Game On Paper:
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Woof.
Both squads need to get off the mat and get a win here in a Week 2 conference game that promises to be a slow, physical, throwback affair.
Boston College Eagles
Boston College enters year three of the Jeff Hafley era in desperate need of a winning season and a bowl game.
Unfortunately, those hopes took a lump last week.
Hafley has impressive chops as a defensive coordinator, and that side of the ball has grown each season with him at the helm.
In 2019, before his arrival, Boston College finished 110 in defensive SP+. The Eagles saw modest gains up to 98th in Hafley's first year and then jumped to 68th in 2021. They project at 37th in that metric for the 2022 season, and their play was a bright spot against Rutgers.
The Eagles held the Scarlet Knights to 51% of available yards and only a 42% Success Rate. While they only created one turnover and five Havoc plays, they were physical and fundamentally sound.
According to PFF charting, Boston College missed only two tackles in the entire game, which is very impressive.
(For reference on either side of the spectrum: Alabama missed five and Hawaii missed 33.)
The Eagles are anchored by a very sturdy defensive backfield consisting of veterans CJ Burton, Elijah Jones, Jason Maitre and Josh DeBerry. This group should make life difficult for Virginia Tech’s passing game.
The offense is another story. There are two NFL players on the unit in quarterback Phil Jurkovec and receiver Zay Flowers. Pat Garwo III rushed for 1,045 yards last season, but the rest of the unit struggled.
The offensive line, in particular, is a great concern. Four of five starters departed in the offseason and the only returner — All-ACC candidate guard Christian Mahogany — was lost for the season with an ACL injury over the summer.
The new line struggled mightily against Rutgers, as 16 of 25 rushing attempts (64%) went for two yards or fewer. Rutgers pressured Jurkovec 14 times, got him to the ground four times and forced a pair of interceptions.
Flowers was a stud with 117 yards and two scores, as was tight end George Takacs. Those two combined for 26 targets on Jurkovec’s 38 pass attempts.
Without any other weapons emerging and an offensive line that is one of the worst in the Power Five, the Eagles will be in line for another long season on offense, especially when facing tough defenses on the road.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Pry was brought in to restore the "Beamerball style" that led to so much sustained success in Blacksburg. The defense will be a quick build as the pieces are in place, but the offense might be a struggle.
Seven starters return on defense, including five out of the back seven.
Pry’s unit was excellent against Old Dominion — which is what you would expect — but was betrayed by five turnovers from the offense and a special teams touchdown.
The Hokies only allowed the Monarchs a 31% Success Rate and were particularly stingy against the pass, allowing 4.3 yards per attempt.
One particular matchup might get dicey for the Eagles. The Hokies sport a pair of veteran interior defensive linemen, seniors Mario Kendricks and Norell Pollard. Those two were dominant last Friday and combined for 10 quarterback hurries, according to PFF charting.
We already covered the precarious position of Boston College’s offensive line. If the Virginia Tech front four eats on Saturday, it could be a long day for the Eagles.
However, the Hokies' offense is still a work in progress. Pry hired Tyler Bowen as his offensive coordinator and snagged Marshall quarterback Grant Wells in the portal.
Wells is a talented college quarterback, but must take care of the ball better. His three turnover-worthy plays last week is not in sync with a team trying to win with defense and ball control.
Running back Keshawn King emerged in Week 1, running for a tough 111 yards, 93 of which came after contact. His opportunity came because Malachi Thomas was out and Jalen Holston was limited.
Having one, or both, back at full-strength could mean a lot for the Hokies' ground attack.
One imagines the game plan will be to pound the rock to avoid having Wells try to win the game against Boston College's talented secondary.
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech Betting Pick
This one feels like a rock fight and should be a low-possession game.
On one hand, Boston College has the advantage at quarterback and has a head coach who has some stability with the program.
On the other, Virginia Tech is better in the trenches, as its defensive line has a significant advantage against an Eagles offensive line that could be one of the worst units in the Power Five.
I considered taking the under, but will ultimately ride with the Hokies at -2.5 — or as long as the line stays at a field goal or lower. I’ll side with home field advantage and the biggest mismatch in the game up front.
