BYU vs. Notre Dame Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +152 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -184 |
I'm excited for one of the more unique non-conference matchups of the 2022 season, with BYU and Notre Dame squaring off at Allegiant Stadium. These two programs have met just six times ever — most recently in 2005 — with ND holding the 4-2 all-time series lead.
BYU enters this one at 4-1 with its lone loss coming at Oregon in Week 3. The Cougars have a nice win over Baylor on their resume, and handled Utah State at home last week.
It was a difficult start to Marcus Freeman's first season as the head coach in South Bend, but the ship appears to have been steadied a little bit. The Irish bounced back from the loss at home to Marshall with two consecutive victories over Cal and North Carolina.
Winning this game would go a long way for both teams in terms of building momentum for the rest of the season.
Let's find out who has the edge.
BYU Cougars
Cougars Offense
It's been a bit of a mixed bag for the Cougars' offense to start the year. BYU struggled to get much of anything going on the ground against Baylor, but found a way to get it done in overtime.
Last week, quarterback Jaren Hall had his way with Utah State, going for 274 yards and three touchdowns. The Cougars didn't turn it over and racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense.
I do have some concerns, however, about whether or not BYU can find some balance against a good Notre Dame defense. The Irish should be able to stop the run, which would put Hall in some difficult obvious passing situations.
Cougars Defense
As it stands currently, BYU's defensive numbers are pretty strong against the pass and really poor against the run. That combination may not bode all that well against a Notre Dame offense that wants to control clock and lean on its ground game.
Moreover, BYU enters this contest ranking 127th in Defensive Finishing Drives. Just four total FBS schools have been worse in the red zone than the Cougars.
The Cougars will need to be much more physical up front to be able to get enough stops to win this one.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Irish Offense
After a really poor start to the year, the Irish offense has picked it up a bit in recent weeks. This team does not really possess a down-the-field threat, so finding consistency in the running game is critical for success.
When Drew Pyne does drop back to throw it, most of the time he's looking for All-American tight end Michael Mayer over the middle. Mayer is a mismatch for opposing defenses and will hear his name called in the first round next April.
The offensive line group has been better in recent weeks, and there should be an opportunity to get a good push against this BYU front. Finding success on early downs will be key for the Irish.
Irish Defense
Freeman's defense is the strength of his team in 2022. The numbers may not fully back it up yet, but the Irish stifled Drake Maye and the UNC offense, a unit that has exploded against every other team it's seen.
Isaiah Foskey anchors this team on the edge and Northwestern transfer Brandon Joseph is a ballhawk in the secondary.
Expect Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden to dial up some pressure on Saturday, looking to get the BYU offense off schedule. Hall is a much different passer when he has time to set his feet and find an open receiver.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Notre Dame match up statistically:
BYU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 17 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 2 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 116 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Notre Dame Offense vs. BYU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 34 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 62 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 127 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 49 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 44 | 103 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 110 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (62) | 28.1 (100) |
| Rush Rate | 47.3% (102) | 58.5% (32) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Betting Pick
I think the market overreacted a little bit to Notre Dame's Week 2 loss to Marshall. It was a letdown spot for the Irish following the Ohio State game, and the quarterback position was still working itself out.
The Irish possess the much better defense in this matchup, and while Pyne is not going to wow you with anything he does, he appears to be gaining comfort running the offense.
Expect BYU to have to work much harder to find points in this one, and it's also worth mentioning that Notre Dame has a significant special teams edge in this game, per PFF.
I loved Notre Dame last week in the lookahead line when it was just one-point favorites, but I still think there is plenty of value on the Irish at the current number.
Back Notre Dame to get it done out in Vegas.
