Charlotte vs. South Carolina Odds
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 66.5 -108o / -112u | +1160 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 66.5 -108o / -112u | -2800 |
After a disappointing start to the season, the Charlotte 49ers pulled a massive upset over Georgia State last week after closing as 19.5-point underdogs.
It took an incredible effort from quarterback Chris Reynolds for his team to be victorious, which led Collin Wilson and Stuckey to name him the most important quarterback regarding handicapping a spread in the country.
Well, the good news for this matchup is that Reynolds will be at the helm once again. The bad news is his opposition is a step up this week.
That opposition would be the South Carolina Gamecocks. The Gamecocks got yet another rude welcoming to SEC play, as they were run over by the No. 1 team in the country last week, the Georgia Bulldogs.
While this week's matchup against Charlotte may seem like a break, South Carolina will need to get up if it wants to improve its performance in conference play.
Can the 49ers pull off another improbable upset? Or will the SEC's stronghold prove superior?
Charlotte 49ers
As I alluded to in the open, Reynolds is the life of this offense. The 49ers have thrown the ball nearly 64% of the time this season. That is primarily because they have been trailing for a large majority of the time this season.
But we're not interested in backing the 49ers to win outright.
Reynolds and the 49ers' passing attack should be able to find some success again this week against the Gamecocks, as their secondary has dropped off steadily from last season. South Carolina comes into this matchup ranking 88th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 118th in PFF's coverage rating.
Those two metrics are much more predictive than your typical defensive counting stats, as South Carolina has only had to defend the pass 37% of the time this season.
However, one more statistic is glaringly in favor of Charlotte's passing attack: The Gamecocks have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 7.7 yards per pass, which ranks 86th in the nation.
If you look at Reynolds' average — not just Charlotte as a whole — he's averaged 9.6 yards per pass and has completed nearly 73% of his passes.
He should keep his team in the game once again.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Now, scoring has certainly not been South Carolina's strong suit thus far, even with former Heisman hopeful Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
The Gamecocks have averaged 4.9 yards per play, which ranks 91st in the country.
However, they have a big opportunity to get right in this matchup.
Charlotte has been one of the worst defensive teams in the nation through four games. The 49ers have allowed an average of 46.7 points per game and 567.7 yards per game.
It's honestly surprising that there are numbers worse than those, but for all of Charlotte's defensive issues, South Carolina will have to prove itself against this unit.
South Carolina appears to have had a demanding schedule through the first two weeks, but if you remove Georgia, it's faced a banged-up Arkansas defense. Before that, it faced Georgia State, which Charlotte beat last week.
With two-thirds of the Gamecocks' schedule not coming against one of the best defenses in the nation, their metrics are far from impressive.
They are 102nd in Rushing Success Rate, 108th in Passing Success Rate, and 71st in Offensive Finishing Drives.
So, is this really a team that should be a three-touchdown favorite?
Charlotte vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and South Carolina match up statistically:
Charlotte Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 124 |  |
| Line Yards | 129 | 104 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 101 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 106 | 89 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Carolina Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 131 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 100 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 71 | 70 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 84 | 95 |
| PFF Coverage | 131 | 118 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 91 | 9 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (51) | 26.9 (78) |
| Rush Rate | 41.9% (121) | 45.3% (111) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Charlotte vs. South Carolina Betting Pick
I know the overall numbers should instill no confidence in this Charlotte team. However, Reynolds is the X-factor. He will succeed against this South Carolina secondary and should do enough to keep his team in the game.
On the other side of the ball, we will be holding our breath every time the 49ers' defense steps on the field, but this South Carolina offense needs to prove itself. Given what the unit has shown thus far, it's not a team that should be trusted to win by more than three touchdowns.
That means I'm taking the points and banking on Reynolds to lead us to glory.
