Cincinnati vs. Tulsa Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -104 | 58.5 -104o / -118u | -400 |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -118 | 58.5 -104o / -118u | +310 |
Tulsa almost burst onto the national stage last weekend, as it almost upset Ole Miss. The Golden Hurricane didn’t quite get the job done, but they did show that they are a real threat to the top teams in the American Athletic Conference this season.
Cincinnati will travel to Tulsa for its conference opener. The Bearcats have continued on their success from recent years, as they continue to mow down most of their opponents in dominant fashion.
Both of these teams have high-flying offenses, and there is one specific weakness in this game that could lead to a massive shootout.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Bearcats Offense
Even with the losses of Desmond Ridder, Alec Pierce and others from this offense, they have still been very good so far this season.
New signal-caller Ben Bryant is averaging 0.14 EPA per play and has only thrown one interception this season. Cincinnati is passing at the 12th-highest mark in the country.
The Bearcats rank 17th in Offensive Success Rate, including ranks of 29th and 13th in Passing and Rushing Success Rate, respectively. SP+ ranks this as the 21st-best offense at the FBS level.
Cincinnati had a 37th-percentile Offensive Success Rate when going up against the best defense it has faced this season in its opener against Arkansas.
The Bearcats' other two FBS opponents, Miami (OH) and Indiana, have defenses that rank 85th and 72nd, per SP+. The Bearcats have scored 38 and 45 in these two games.
Their Success Rate numbers against Indiana don’t jump off the page, but this was due to a lot of garbage time after getting out to a big lead early.
The defense that Tulsa will be bringing this weekend will be worse than any of the FBS foes that Cincinnati has faced. Kennesaw State’s defense is ranked 23rd at the FCS level, and the Bearcats crushed it with a 99th-percentile Offensive Success Rate.
Bearcats Defense
In a similar story to the offense, Cincinnati’s defense has been strong this year so far despite losing its top two corners to the NFL in Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant. The Bearcats rank 20th in Defensive Success Rate and are rated as the 22nd-best defense by SP+.
Arkansas is the best offense that Cincinnati has faced thus far, and the Razorbacks were able to put up a 60th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against the Bearcats.
This likely could have been even higher if Arkansas wasn’t playing from ahead for the entire game.
The Bearcats did suffocate both Indiana and Kennesaw State — holding each of them to a 12th-percentile Offensive Success Rate — but neither one of their offenses are nearly as potent as Tulsa’s.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Golden Hurricane Offense
While Bryant has been impressive, Tulsa has a gunslinger of its own in Davis Brin. Brin has thrown for 1,138 yards this season and has an insane 0.50 EPA per drop back.
Tulsa passes at the 42nd-highest rate in college football, and it does it well. As a whole, this offense ranks 45th in Success Rate, but this is largely driven by the Golden Hurricane ranking 15th through the air while struggling on the ground.
Interestingly enough, this coincides with Cincinnati’s weakness. The Bearcats rank 92nd in Success Rate against the pass and may struggle to stop Brin from having another big game.
Tulsa didn't face any great defenses this season prior to last week, so it was hard to tell if its offense was for real.
Well, against an Ole Miss defense that is ranked 15th by SP+, Tulsa had a 96th-percentile Offensive Success Rate and almost completed a massive upset.
This offense is legitimately good and should scare Cincinnati.
Golden Hurricane Defense
This Tulsa defense has been very generous this season — to say the least. In all of its FBS games, it has allowed 35 or more points, despite not playing a lot of good offenses.
Wyoming’s 112th-ranked offense by SP+ had a 96th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against this team.
Things have gotten slightly better for Tulsa since then. The Golden Hurricane allowed 69th-percentile Offensive Success Rates to Northern Illinois (No. 57 SP+ offense) and Ole Miss (13th).
Still, the Golden Hurricane rank 111th in Defensive Success Rate for the season.
Ole Miss’ offense is probably the best comparison for what Tulsa will see this weekend in Cincinnati. If this is any indication, then Cincinnati should be able to have a good amount of success.
Cincinnati vs. Tulsa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and Tulsa match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 102 |  |
| Line Yards | 57 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 81 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 80 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 110 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 115 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Tulsa Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 33 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 88 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 37 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 43 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 37 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 73 | 70 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (40) | 25.2 (35) |
| Rush Rate | 47.2% (103) | 48.2% (96) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Cincinnati vs. Tulsa Betting Pick
Both of these teams are 2-2 ATS this year, but where they align is that seven of their eight combined games have hit the over.
This has been driven by their offenses, as these two teams are 8-0 to their team total overs.
Cincinnati’s one glaring weakness is its passing defense, which is also a strength for Tulsa. If Brin is able to take advantage of this, then Tulsa will be able to score in bunches and have a strong possibility of pulling off the upset at home.
Tulsa’s defense won’t do much in the way of stopping Cincinnati either. The Bearcats' offense is strong, and it will also be able to put points on the board.
I look for this game to have major shootout potential, and low-key should be appointment viewing on Saturday.
