Clemson vs. Boston College Odds
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -118 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | -1450 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -114 | 48.5 -112o / -108u | +810 |
Boston College has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country in the first half of the season under head coach Jeff Hafley. The program appeared headed in the right direction at the start of last season, but now the offense has regressed.
The Eagles will have their biggest test of the season when undefeated Clemson visits Chestnut Hill on Saturday.
Clemson earned its biggest win of the season last week at home against NC State and is now in a tricky spot as a big road favorite. The Tigers could be caught in a sandwich spot too, given that talented and dangerous Florida State awaits next week on the Tigers' schedule.
The Tigers have advantages all over the field, but they have shown some vulnerability in the early part of the season against Wake Forest — and even Georgia Tech — that suggests the Tigers aren't truly a top-five team despite their high ranking in the polls.
Boston College goes as quarterback Phil Jurkovec goes, and his return to form last week gives the Eagles a chance to keep this game competitive.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson entered the season with a defense that was expected to be one of the best in the entire country. The unit has looked great at times, but the secondary can absolutely be exploited, as Sam Hartman and Wake Forest showed two weeks ago.
The defensive line is still very good, but perhaps not as elite and dominant as some expected coming into the season. It's not as sturdy as the line that helped Clemson win the championship in 2017, for example.
The Tigers rank 14th in Defensive Line Yards and 26th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. That will make it difficult for Boston College to run the ball in this game.
Boston College isn't really built around the run game like years past anymore, though. The Eagles are more of a pass-heavy team now, and the Tigers have looked vulnerable in the secondary.
Last week, Devin Leary and the Wolfpack didn't exactly carve up the Tigers, but they did have some success on passing downs and moved the ball inside the Clemson 40 on five different occasions.
The really concerning game for the Clemson secondary came against Wake. The Demon Deacons had a ridiculous 59% Standard Down Success Rate and made six trips inside the Clemson 40. When the Deacs moved the ball into the Clemson red zone, they still were able to score with ease.
Because of this, the Tigers are just 50th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 63rd in Defensive Finishing Drives. If good Jurkovec shows up, the Eagles will move the ball through the air and score.
Boston College Eagles
Jurkovec had plenty of issues in the first four games of the season, but there's reason for optimism for this offense after his outburst against Louisville last week.
Not only did he post his best PFF grade of the season, but he also averaged 14.5 yards per attempt.
The only chance for BC to stay in this game is through the air, and the connection between Jurkovec and Zay Flowers is one of the most dynamic in the entire country.
Flowers has posted 63 and 70 receiving yards the last two seasons against the Tigers. Last week was Flowers' second big game of the season — 173 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns.
Hafley is known for his defensive background at Boston College and the Eagles have above-average defensive metrics in many key categories.
The Eagles have a Line Yard advantage against this Clemson front and even though Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has taken a step forward as a quarterback this season, the consistency week-to-week is far from reliable.
The Eagles are a top-50 passing defense by Success Rate Allowed and should force the Tigers to be methodical in moving the ball down the field.
Clemson vs. Boston College Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Clemson and Boston College match up statistically:
Clemson Offense vs. Boston College Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 44 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 69 | 89 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 60 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Boston College Offense vs. Clemson Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 119 | 26 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 14 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 50 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 82 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 6 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 19 | 69 |
| PFF Coverage | 60 | 112 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 60 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (56) | 27.5 (88) |
| Rush Rate | 52.1% (78) | 49.2% (92) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Clemson vs. Boston College Betting Pick
The market is down on Boston College because of its poor start to the season, including blowout losses to Virginia Tech and Florida State.
Even though it came against a dead team in Louisville last week, Jurkovec's improvements through the air lend well to the Eagles' chances of finding passing success and staying somewhat competitive in this game.
Clemson's offense is still too inconsistent in a bad situational spot for me to lay more than 20 points with the Tigers on the road.
The Tigers' defense isn't good enough at preventing touchdowns and ranks just 60th in tackling grading, per PFF. The Eagles will only need one or two big plays on a pretty low total to stay inside this number.
Given Jurkovec's pedigree and Clemson looking ahead to next week, the backdoor will also be open late if the Eagles are down 22-27 points in the fourth quarter.
