Colorado vs. Air Force Odds
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -900 |
Colorado makes the short trip down to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force in an inter-state clash.
Colorado did not have high expectations coming into the season, and its Week 1 showing against TCU was a good refection of that — it lost 38-17 at home. The Buffaloes are coming off of a 4-8 season and have a lot of production to replace, so you can see why they are such significant underdogs on Saturday.
Air Force is poised for one of the best seasons in the program's history. Last season, the Falcons went 10-3 and the triple option was one of the most effective offenses outside of the Power Five.
With a ton of weapons coming back, this season is going to be even better.
Colorado Buffaloes
Buffaloes Offense
It was bad in 2021 for the Buffaloes, really bad.
Colorado only averaged 4.0 yards per play and was 115th in Success Rate, 126th in Explosiveness and 124th in EPA/Play.
Against TCU in Week 1, the Buffs were only able to gain 4.9 yards per play against one of the worst defense in the Power Five in 2021.
Brendon Lewis returns at quarterback after a less than stellar season in 2021. Last season, he only averaged 6.0 yards per attempt and had a 64.8 PFF passing grade with only seven Big-Time Throws compared to six Turnover-Worthy Plays.
He was not impressive in the opener, going 13-for-18 for 78 yards in three quarters of football.
But the reality is Colorado is a rush-heavy offense.
The Buffaloes lost their top back Jarek Broussard, who averaged 4.7 yards per carry in 2021. Nobody else on the roster averaged over 3.6 yards per carry, so going up against one of the best rush defenses in the Mountain West last season is a big ask for this unit.
Buffaloes Defense
Not only was the offense bad last year, but the defense was just as bad.
Colorado allowed 6.1 yards per play and was 91st in Success Rate Allowed, 120th in Havoc and 86th in EPA/Play Allowed. Not only that, but the Buffs only return five starters from that defense.
They were really bad against TCU in Week 1, allowing 7.80 yards per play and 38 points on only 53 defensive snaps.
The secondary won't likely be tested since it's facing the triple option, so let's focus on the front seven. Two starters are gone from a defensive line that was 93rd in Defensive Line Yards and 106th in Power Success Rate Allowed, which is not good news when you're facing the triple option.
The Buffs lost their top two linebackers and haven't done much to replace that production on a defense that was 108th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
This is going to go poorly on Saturday.
Air Force Falcons
Falcons Offense
Air Force's offense was one of the most efficient outside the Power Five a season ago.
The triple option averaged 5.8 yards per play and 5.1 yards per carry. The Falcons were 17th in EPA/Rush, 15th in offensive yards, sixth in Stuff Rate Allowed and 22nd in Power Success Rate, which are all great indicators that the triple option is running well.
In even better news, their top two rushers from last season are back in 2022.
Haaziq Daniels is back at quarterback, and is the perfect guy for the triple option. In 2021, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry on the ground and had 11 touchdowns.
He's also a pretty good passer. He only attempted 104 passes last season, but he averaged 11.4 yards per attempt and had a 80 PFF passing grade with 14 Big-Time Throws and only four Turnover-Worthy Plays.
AIR FORCE QB Haaziq Daniels at half
✈️ 6/7
✈️ 199 yards
✈️ 2 TDs#CFB— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 28, 2021
Air Force also gets back its leading ball carrier, fullback Brad Roberts, who toted the rock 299 times in 2021 and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. He's an absolute bulldozer, putting up a 83.8 PFF rushing grade. He had 797 yards after contact and did not fumble the ball once in those 299 carries.
Air Force has some tough runners. Brad Roberts (@Brad27_27) is especially hard to take down pic.twitter.com/sOY4abFwhJ
— Joe Broback (@joebroback) September 21, 2021
Falcons Defense
The Falcons were incredibly successful in forcing opponents into low Success Rates on offense last season.
Air Force ranked 17th in Success Rate Allowed, 14th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 35th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
But there's a problem, the Falcons were incredibly susceptible to giving up big plays. They were 121st in Explosiveness Allowed, with most of that coming in the run game (125th in Rushing Explosivness Allowed).
They lose their best defensive lineman Jordan Jackson, but do have their entire linebacking core back, so they could improve.
The secondary is gutted from last season, losing starting corners Tre Bugg III and Corvan Taylor, who were some of the best in the Mountain West last year. The secondary likely won't be tested against Colorado's rush-heavy offense, but in future games, the loss of those two will be evident.
Colorado vs. Air Force Betting Pick
This is likely going to be an Air Force blowout, as I have no idea how the Buffaloes are going to stop Daniels, Roberts and this efficient triple option.
The Air Force defense being susceptible to giving up explosive plays worries me, so I am instead going to isolate the Falcons' offense and take their team total over 33.5 points (DraftKings).
I have them projected for 39.1 points.
