FIU vs. Texas State Odds
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 62.5 -110o / -112u | +420 |
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 62.5 -110o / -112u | -580 |
This is a clash between two bottom-five FBS programs, as Florida International travels to match up with Texas State. The good news for us as bettors is we can win the same amount on this game as a top-five matchup.
Florida International needed overtime to survive Bryant in its season opener in Week 0.
FIU GOES FOR BROKE AND WALKS OFF BRYANT[[[! pic.twitter.com/wt9fcZN9yh
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthewCFB) September 2, 2022
The Panthers were double-digit favorites in that game and trailed by 10 at halftime. The offense came alive and scored 24 points in the fourth quarter to send the game to overtime.
Now FIU matches up against Texas State, which dropped its season opener to Nevada. The Bobcats opened as eight-point underdogs and were steamed to slight favorites by kickoff, though much of that movement was attributed to Nevada’s horrific Week 0 performance against New Mexico State.
Texas State was doomed by turnovers despite outgaining Nevada in yards.
The Bobcats are poised to bounce back against a historically bad Florida International squad.
Florida International Panthers
Collin Wilson had Florida International power rated as the worst team in the nation while SP+ had the Panthers ranked 125th. Those numbers proved to be accurate after the program barely survived Week 1.
Mike MacIntyre’s squad crawled back from a 16-point deficit against Bryant after closing as double-digit favorites.
Despite the victory, there is no doubt that Bryant was the better football team on that field. The Bulldogs outgained the Panthers by 100 yards of offense and converted 10-of-17 on third down compared to FIU’s 4-of-15.
Bryant controlled the flow of the game, holding the ball for 38 minutes of action. Penalties bailed out Florida International, as Bryant was flagged 15 times for 130 yards.
The Florida International program ranks outside the top 100 in nearly all the advanced metrics on both sides of the ball. The Panthers sit outside that ranking in Success Rate, Havoc and points per possession on both offense and defense.
That adds up, as MacIntyre’s group was outscored by 20 points per game last season. They finished with a 1-11 record with only two of the losses coming by single digits.
Florida International kicked up the tempo in its first game and handed the keys over to Gunnar Holmberg. The Duke transfer tossed 100 yards on his first 20 pass attempts before getting knocked out of the game. He is now questionable and in the concussion protocol.
Grayson James took over and tossed four touchdowns in the second half, leading the Panthers' comeback.
Texas State Bobcats
One of the positives about playing a Week 0 game is getting the rust knocked off. Nevada did that against New Mexico State, losing the turnover battle 5-0.
The Wolfpack turned the tables against Texas State, forcing the Bobcats to turn over the football four times.
Despite the Week 1 woes, the Bobcats have the potential to make their first-ever bowl game this season. The turnaround begins this week against Florida International.
Layne Hatcher transfers over from fellow Sun Belt program Arkansas State. Hatcher leads a Bobcats offense that likes to play fast and slings the ball around the field.
In his first start with the program, he was mediocre, tossing two touchdowns and two interceptions. He completed 33-of-51 passing attempts for 289 yards (5.8 YPA).
Hatcher had negative help from the rushing attack — literally. The Bobcats rushed for -12 yards on their 25 carries in the game. That should change against an FIU defense that allowed 5.5 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per pass attempt last season.
Despite allowing 38 points against Nevada, the defense is not to blame. The group played well, holding Nevada to fewer than 300 total yards and just 3.1 yards per carry. The two Nevada quarterbacks combined for only 140 yards passing on 20 attempts.
FIU vs. Texas State Betting Pick
Texas State will own a significant advantage on both sides of the ball. The Bobcats' up-tempo Air-Raid offensive scheme is going to have a field day.
Hatcher threw the ball on 66% of his snaps last game, and that’s a recipe for disaster for Florida International. The Panthers' defense was putrid in Week 1, allowing Bryant to pass for 350 yards and 8.5 yards per pass attempt.
Expect the Bobcats to keep their foot on the gas pedal against the Panthers' nonexistent defense.
Florida International will likely be without its starting quarterback and will be leaning on backup James. Although he looked good against an unprepared Bryant squad, this Texas State defense will prove to be a large step up in class.
Florida International lost nine of its 11 games by double digits last season. The group was outscored by an average margin of 20 points per game.
That trend looks to continue in this matchup, with the Bobcats going wire-to-wire over the Panthers.
