Florida Atlantic vs. Purdue Odds
| Florida Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -108 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -112 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -820 |
The Purdue Boilermakers were just seconds away from being 2-1, only to have victory snatched from them after a game-winning-touchdown pass from the Syracuse Orange.
Now the Boilermakers must have a short memory as they return home to face the FAU Owls.
Speaking of the Owls, they have had quite a roller coaster through their first four games of the season. They opened by rolling over Charlotte, were then upset by Ohio and followed that up by crushing an FCS school. Then last week, they were smoked by UCF.
So, what version of FAU will show up in this matchup? A closer look reveals what type of performance we should expect from the Owls, and provides us with an edge on how to handicap this game.
So, can the Owls pick themselves up off the pavement and give the Boilermakers a run for their money? Let's find out.
Florida Atlantic Owls
FAU may be in the Conference USA, but it has Power-Five talent on offense.
Former Miami Hurricanes quarterback N'Kosi Perry has had a solid start to the season. He enters this matchup with a 10:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and averages eight yards per completion.
However, the issue is that completions have come few and far between. His 57.7 completion percentage is good for 102nd in the country.
So, while Perry may be able to create a few explosive plays, his overall consistency is holding the offense back.
It certainly does not help matters that this week he will be up against a Boilermakers defense that has been fairly solid against the pass. They are ranked 10th in opponent completion percentage and first in defensive EPA per play.
While Perry may be the determining factor of the offense, we will see the ball in the hands of the Owls' running back tandem of Larry McCammon III and Zuberi Mobley.
The duo has been dynamic this season, as McCammon is averaging 7.3 yards per carry and Zuberi is not far behind at 5.7 per attempt.
However, the Boilermakers may have an answer for them. Purdue will have a significant edge in the trenches, as it is 12th in Defensive Line Yards. Expect them to blow up multiple plays in the backfield before the Owls' backs even have a chance to get going.
Purdue Boilermakers
While the Boilermakers may have all the answers on defense, where they are going to have the biggest edge is on the offensive side of the ball.
Purdue relies on quarterback Aidan O'Connell for 72% of its offense. The Boilers throw the ball at the second-highest rate in the country because O'Connell proved last year that he could sling it all over the field without hesitation.
We should see him have boatloads of success against this FAU defense, as the Owls enter this matchup 120th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 126th in coverage ratings, according to PFF.
To go even further, the Owls are 113th in opponent completion percentage and 114th in opponent yards per pass allowed.
As a result, this is one of the biggest stylistic mismatches we will see across the college football landscape, and it dictates how we're playing the spread.
Florida Atlantic vs. Purdue Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida Atlantic and Purdue match up statistically:
Florida Atlantic Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 12 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 41 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Purdue Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 47 |  |
| Pass Success | 36 | 120 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 84 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 90 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 103 | 77 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 78 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 72 | 92 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.2 (27) | 24.0 (24) |
| Rush Rate | 56.7% (46) | 37.8% (128) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Florida Atlantic vs. Purdue Betting Pick
We have seen the market knock down this number from 19 to 17.5, but that only creates more value from my perspective.
Our Action Network power ratings have the Boilermakers as 20-point favorites in this matchup, and rightfully so.
O'Connell should shred this FAU secondary, and I expect this game to look a lot like the Owls' matchup against UCF last week.
Back Purdue to outgun the Owls.
