Georgia Tech vs. Pitt Odds
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -112 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | +1060 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -108 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | -2300 |
After a hectic week in Atlanta, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday night.
In its last game, Tech lost 27-10 on the road against UCF. The Yellow Jackets fell to 1-3 on the season and head coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury were fired. Collins ends his career at Georgia Tech with a 10-28 record.
Assistant head coach Brent Key, who has been with the Yellow Jackets for four seasons, will step in as the interim head coach. He has also been the run game coordinator and offensive line coach with the Jackets.
During his tenure, Georgia Tech has produced an All-American and twice finished in the top half of the ACC in rushing.
Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the Panthers and head coach Pat Narduzzi enter this matchup 3-1 on the season.
And more importantly, Kedon Slovis played last week against Rhode Island and is healthy after missing the Western Michigan game due to an injury.
There may not be a better test to see what we can expect from Key for the rest of the season than this game against Pittsburgh.
The Panthers have found success through the air and on the ground. They also have a top-35 defense in the country that specializes in stopping the run — something I expect a lot from Key, who specializes in rush offense.
Georgia Tech has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball as recruiting was never a problem for Collins. Can Key do more with that talent against one of the best teams in the ACC?
The Panthers lead the all-time series 11-5 and are on a four-game winning streak dating back to 2017. Also, the Yellow Jackets have not won in Pittsburgh since 2014.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Key is left with a bit of a mess, but there is a fair amount of talent on the team.
In Collins' past three games against FBS opponents, Georgia Tech was outscored by 89 points. With each loss, it became a question of when, not if, the program would part ways with the coach.
The Yellow Jackets' defense has struggled, but Maryland graduate transfer Ayinde Eley has been a diamond in the rough. In the first four games, he has registered 42 tackles, six tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.
Eley is Georgia Tech's best chance at slowing down the Panthers' rush attack. Tech also ranks 70th in Defensive Havoc and is 52nd when it comes to tackling, so this defense is more than just a revolving door.
However, on offense, Georgia Tech hasn't had much success. Quarterback Jeff Sims has potential, but with 13 sacks on the season, his offensive line hasn't given him much of a chance to show it.
And with Key, a "rush-first" coach, at the helm, I expect the run game to become even more of a focus.
The Yellow Jackets already rank 76th in rush rate and run the ball on 52.4% of plays.
Pittsburgh Panthers
No one expected Slovis to put up numbers like the Panthers saw with Kenny Pickett, but he has been better than many expected.
Slovis has completed 66.7% of his passes in three games. He's also thrown for 692 yards and logged just one passing touchdown, though that's primarily because of how successful the Panthers' run game has been.
Israel Abanikanda leads the ACC and ranks sixth in the FBS in rushing yards, with 479 in just four games. He also leads the team in touchdowns with seven and is tied for the ACC lead with Clemson running back Will Shipley.
I expect Abanikanda to play a huge role this week against Georgia Tech, one of the bottom-five rush defenses in the country. The Yellow Jackets are allowing opposing teams to average 239 rushing yards per contest.
Pittsburgh's defense will be another challenge for the Yellow Jackets. The Panthers rank 30th in rush defense and have not yielded more than 100 rushing yards since Week 1 against West Virginia.
The Panthers are also tied for 19th in sacks (12) and are 69th in Defensive Pass Success Rate.
Georgia Tech vs. Pitt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and Pitt match up statistically:
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Pitt Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 69 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 113 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 125 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 74 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pitt Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 97 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 90 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 68 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 83 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 79 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 52 | 44 |
| PFF Coverage | 85 | 51 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 117 | 119 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.9 (51) | 30.6 (126) |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (76) | 61.4% (20) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia Tech vs. Pitt Betting Pick
Will the Yellow Jackets have better results without Collins at the helm? I believe so.
Will they have a better result against Pittsburgh just five days after he left the team? I'm not so sure.
I expect Georgia Tech to lean even more into the run game under Key.
I also expect things to slow down on the offensive side of the ball. It wouldn't be surprising to see Pittsburgh come close to shutting Georgia Tech out and just running the clock in the second half — much like what we saw from Ole Miss against the Yellow Jackets.
That's why I'm taking the under in this matchup at 49.5, and I would feel comfortable backing this number as low as 48.
