Michigan State vs. Maryland Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +230 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -285 |
Michigan State looks to rebound after back-to-back losses when it heads on the road to take on Maryland.
There's absolutely nothing positive we can take away from Michigan State's performance against Minnesota on Saturday. It was thoroughly dominated in every aspect of the game.
That game also showed that the Spartans' preseason ranking of 11th was a tad too high. For Mel Tucker to prevent this season from spiraling out of control, they need to be competitive in this game.
Maryland went on the road to the Big House and was competitive, losing 34-27. However, being over a touchdown favorite at home against the other school in Michigan is another task and story.
Michigan State Spartans
Spartans Offense
Payton Thorne has been pretty bad to begin the season. His PFF passing grade sits at just 65.9 with four Big Time Throws and six Turnover Worthy Plays.
However, Michigan State is still 42nd in Passing Success Rate even with those terrible numbers.
Thorne still has his top target Jayden Reed to throw to — the wide out recorded over 1,000 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns in 2021.
Reed missed the game against Washington. He was questionable and tried to give it a go against the Gophers last Saturday, but only got five targets and ran 24 routes.
He should be a full go against Maryland, though, which will drastically help Thorne.
Payton Thorne finds Jayden Reed on 4th and 15 for the TD 😮 pic.twitter.com/leoOOhE5Xz
— ESPN (@espn) November 27, 2021
If there was ever a game for Michigan State to get its rushing attack going, this is the one.
Through a tough schedule, the Spartans have ran the ball for 4.4 yards per carry, own a ranking of 36th in Rushing Success Rate and have the fourth-best run-blocking grade in the country, per PFF, despite only bringing back two starters on the offensive line.
Spartans Defense
Michigan State brought back nine starters on the defensive side of the ball from a pretty average unit a season ago.
This season, the Spartans have struggled to generate a pass rush, ranking 59th in terms of a pass rushing grade and 52nd in Havoc. However, they have done a good job of stopping the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per attempt while ranking 30th in Defensive Line Yards.
However, this game is going to come down to if the secondary can slow down Taulia Tagovailoa. The secondary was the Achilles heel of the Spartans' defense last season, and it struggled against both Washington and Minnesota.
So far on the season, the secondary ranks 91st in terms of a coverage grade and 99th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, but it did bring back three starters from last season.
Maryland Terrapins
Terrapins Offense
Tagovailoa looks like the greatest quarterback on earth when playing inferior opponents, but as soon as he has to face a somewhat decent defense, he turns into a below-average quarterback.
Take a look at his PFF passing grades from all of last year, and then the first four games of this season:
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When he faced Michigan State last season, he threw for 350 yards, but that came on 51 attempts and included four Turnover Worthy Plays, which was tied for his season high.
Michigan State returned its entire secondary from that team that wreaked havoc on Tagovailoa.
Also of major importance, Tagovailoa and top wide receiver Rakim Jarrett are both questionable to play on Saturday.
The Maryland rushing attack has been pretty average to begin the season — ranking 64th in Rushing Success Rate — and its offensive line has not been getting a good push up front.
Maryland is 63rd in Offensive Line Yards and 66th in terms of a run blocking grade. That's not good news when you're going up against Michigan State's front seven.
Terrapins Defense
The Maryland defense has been sub-par this season, and its biggest problem has been its inability to generate a pass rush.
Maryland's defensive line is 107th in terms of a pass rushing grade and 95th in Havoc, not to mention the Michigan State offensive line is fourth in terms of a pass blocking grade, per PFF.
That's bad news considering Thorne is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt and has a 76.7% adjusted completion percentage when throwing from a clean pocket.
Maryland is also really struggling to stop the run. The Terrapins rank 101st in Power Success Rate Allowed, 90th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 54th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
I have a hard time seeing how they are going to slow Michigan State down, even if the Spartans have been struggling to move the ball.
Michigan State vs. Maryland Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Maryland match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 66 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 28 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 4 | 107 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 16 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Maryland Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 99 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 30 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 40 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 21 |
| PFF Coverage | 91 | 62 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 116 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.2 (26) | 26.3 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 48.6% (94) | 49.0% (92) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Michigan State vs. Maryland Betting Pick
Bettors clearly are reacting to Michigan State's poor performance against Minnesota. Maryland opened as a -3.5 favorite and has already been bet up five points as of Thursday afternoon.
I think that is a massive overreaction, as the Maryland defense has shown no ability to consistently get stops or generate a pass rush.
I only have Maryland projected as a -3 favorite, so I like the value on the Spartans at +8.5, which is currently available at BetMGM.
