Michigan vs. Indiana Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -114 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -1800 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -112 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +920 |
The Michigan Wolverines look to stay undefeated when they head to Bloomington to face the Indiana Hoosiers.
Michigan passed its first test of the season by going into Kinnick Stadium and getting a convincing win over Iowa. Now comes a different test, a sleepy noon kickoff against a 3-2 Indiana team as Michigan tries to avoid looking ahead to Penn State next week.
Indiana started off the season with three straight wins at home, including two nail-biters against Illinois and Western Kentucky. Then it got ugly with two double-digit losses on the road to Cincinnati and Nebraska.
This week, the Hoosiers are more than a three-touchdown underdog to the Wolverines as things are looking bleak.
Can Tom Allen get his team to step up against Michigan in a lookahead spot for the road favorite?
Michigan Wolverines
Wolverines Offense
Michigan feels like it has a new offense with J.J. McCarthy under center. The Wolverines have played an easy schedule to date, but gaining 6.9 yards per play while ranking fourth in Success Rate and 10th in EPA/Play is nothing to scoff at.
Even against Iowa, one of the best defenses in the country, Michigan still gained close to 5.0 yards per play and ran the ball for over four yards per carry, which is something few offenses have done recently.
Blake Corum has been outstanding while taking over as the lead running back. He's averaging 6.6 yards per carry, has 10 touchdowns, owns 17 runs of 10+ yards and is posting a 89.2 PFF Rushing Grade.
That Blake Corum hesi >>> pic.twitter.com/U2mGTQtxdE
— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) October 1, 2022
McCarthy has Michigan ranked 11th in Passing Success Rate and 21st in EPA/Pass. He also leads college football in Adjusted Completion Percentage at 82.9% and is averaging over 10 yards per attempt.
As a result, he should throw all over this very poor Indiana secondary.
Wolverines Defense
Michigan had a ton of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball going into the season after losing key players in the trench, such as Aiden Hutchinson and defensive tackle Chris Hinton.
Michigan also lost its top two linebackers in David Ojabo and Josh Ross, who combined for 141 tackles, 11.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. They played key roles in Michigan being 16th in EPA/Play Allowed in 2021.
The biggest issue with Michigan's defense is it hasn't really been tested yet. The Wolverines' first three games were against Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut, three of the worst offenses in college football.
The game against Maryland was pretty concerning, not only because they allowed 27 points, but the Terrapins also gained 5.4 yards per play, as they scored on four of five drives that finished in Michigan's territory.
Michigan even allowed Iowa's anemic offense to gain 5.1 yards per play and have a 51% Success Rate on Standard Downs.
Indiana Hoosiers
Hoosiers Offense
Indiana is playing at a lightning-quick pace on offense, as the Hoosiers play at the fastest pace in the country by a pretty wide margin. The Hoosiers are averaging a play every 17.49 seconds, which is almost three seconds faster than the next closest team.
As for their offense, it hasn't been that effective, ranking outside the top 90 in EPA/Play.
Connor Bazelak is having a season to forget at quarterback. He's averaging under six yards per attempt, has 10 Turnover Worthy Plays and a 56.6 PFF Passing Grade.
However, Indiana is throwing the ball at one of the highest rates in the country (60.1% of its offensive plays).
With how much Indiana is throwing the ball, the ground game has not been a feature of the offense.
However, Auburn transfer Shaun Shivers is gaining 4.4 yards per carry and Indiana is 32nd in Rushing Explosiveness.
Shaun Shivers 47 yards to the house!! #Indianapic.twitter.com/Xca9tMbRsN
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) September 24, 2022
Hoosiers Defense
Indiana does have a decent front seven that has been stout against the run this season, ranking inside the top 30 in EPA/Rush Allowed, Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
However, Indiana has gotten torched through the air. The Hoosiers have given up 8.0 yards per attempt (98th in FBS) and rank 117th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 119th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Oh, and this will be the best passing attack they have seen this season.
Michigan vs. Indiana Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Indiana match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 117 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 44 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 39 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 8 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 119 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 77 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 1 | 103 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 109 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 3 | 32 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (116) | 18.8 (1) |
| Rush Rate | 61.1% (19) | 39.1% (129) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Pick
With how bad Indiana's secondary has been, McCarthy should have one of his best games of the season.
Additionally, even if Indiana goes three-and-out every time, its lightning-fast pace will give Michigan a plethora of opportunities to run up the score.
I have 67.5 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 58.5, which is currently available at FanDuel.
To place your bets on this and many, many other markets across the world of sports, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook right now!
Pick: Over 58.5
