Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
This is a really fascinating second-tier SEC game. It will get overshadowed by the colossal game in Knoxville, or the likely wackiness in Gainesville or Oxford, but this game has plenty of intrigue and could be a defensive slugfest.
In a lot of ways, these teams are polar opposites in 2022.
The Bulldogs have a quarterback named Will who is a prolific college passer, but he's not knocking down the doors of NFL scouts.
The Wildcats have a quarterback named Will who struggles to fill the box score in SEC games, but has NFL scouts salivating.
Kentucky has lived in the AP rankings for most of the year despite poor underlying metrics. Meanwhile, analytics systems have been enamored with the Bulldogs, and they are finally garnering national attention to match that.
Both are developmental programs that have to rebuild, not just reload; Mississippi State is at the peak of a cycle, while Kentucky is in a rebuilding year, especially in the trenches.
This cross-divisional SEC rivalry has been won by the home team every year since 2014. Kentucky plays host at Kroger Field this year.
You would think it would be a shootout, with a Mike Leach Air Raid offense going against a team with a potential first-round pick at quarterback. But both teams prefer a slower pace and have strong defenses.
Does that mean the under is the best play? And how does the status of Will Levis affect how you should bet this game?
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have been ferocious to start the season, dropping only a night game in Death Valley in Week 3. They have dispatched Texas A&M and Arkansas with ease in the last two weeks.
This team is healthy, hungry and feeling good.
Quarterback Will Rogers is in his third year starting for Leach and he is operating the Leach Air Raid at a high level. Rogers leads the country in passing yards (2,110) and has thrown 22 touchdowns to only three interceptions.
Pass protection was a huge issue for the Bulldogs early in the season and it cost them in the loss to LSU. Rogers was sacked four times that day and he was pressured an average of 9.3 times per game in the first three contests.
But in Week 4 against Bowling Green, starting left tackle Kwatrivous Johnson was injured. The next week, the Bulldogs slid guard Nick Jones to left tackle and inserted Steven Losoya III at guard. This has done wonders for the team’s pass protection.
Losoya III is currently the highest-graded Bulldog in pass protection, according to PFF. Rogers wasn’t sacked at all by Texas A&M or Arkansas and was only pressured 11 times in those games, despite both opponents owing a strong pass rush.
It’s unfortunate that a veteran player like Johnson might lose playing time due to an injury, but the Bulldogs have unlocked a better lineup in his absence.
On the other side of the ball, the defense is excellent, led by a rising star in coordinator Zach Arnett. The Bulldogs sit at 20th overall in SP+ and they are particularly strong against the pass.
The Bulldogs are excellent at forcing negative drives — turnovers or three-and-outs — as they are fourth in the country, per Beta_Rank, in that number.
Perhaps the most surprising performance so far has been the special teams. A year after finishing 125th in special teams in SP+ and losing multiple games because of special teams catastrophes, the Bulldogs are seventh overall.
Yes, top-10.
Leach's teams have been known to have dicey special teams play, but they prioritized getting veteran specialists in the transfer portal, and that is paying off.
Kentucky Wildcats
While Kentucky has spent much of this season ranked and even made a cameo in the top 10, this is not the best recent Wildcats team.
The offensive line play is poor, and that is submarining any potential that the rest of the team might have. The Wildcats' offense is 51st in SP+ and 118th in Rushing Success Rate.
Star tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr. recently returned from suspension, which could bolster the running attack.
Levis has been under significant heat from opposing pass rushers. He has been pressured 68 times in five games and 25% of his pressures become sacks, a startling high figure.
On the season, Levis has made three Big Time Throws and has six Turnover Worthy Plays, according to PFF charting.
The injury bug has bit Kentucky hard. The offense is good at creating big passing plays, but leading receivers Dane Key and Tayvion Robinson are both in doubt for this game.
Levis missed last week, although head coach Mark Stoops has been publicly optimistic about his chances of playing vs. the Bulldogs.
Either way, I don’t love this offense without the receivers at full strength, without Levis at his best and without a good run-blocking offensive line. This is a poor matchup for the Kentucky offense.
The Kentucky defense is still excellent, as it often is under Stoops. It ranks 10th in SP+, sixth in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 14th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
One number that stood out: the Wildcats are 116th in explosive pass plays allowed. While the Leach and Rogers' version of this offense prefers to dink-and-dunk, there could be some downfield or YAC opportunities for the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Kentucky match up statistically:
Mississippi State Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 59 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 14 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 75 | 72 |  |
| Havoc | 25 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 12 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kentucky Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 30 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 53 | 123 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 56 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 74 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 29 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 7 | 27 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (76) | 32.1 (130) |
| Rush Rate | 34.6% (130) | 55.3% (56) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Betting Pick
I think this game will be low-scoring, with occasional flashes of big passing plays. There won’t be much success on the ground for either team.
I’ll take the team with the veteran quarterback — which has fixed its pass protection and has full health — over the team with the all-potential quarterback, a leaky offensive line and injuries galore.
At the time of writing on Thursday evening, Levis is likely to play, which has caused the line to drop from Mississippi State -7 to -4. Totals are also steaming up from 46 to 49 at some shops.
Even with Levis anticipated to play, I like the under at the new higher number and the Kentucky team total under 22.5 (-115) at DraftKings.
But my best bet is grabbing Mississippi State at -4, even with news that Levis is likely to play. He is a critical player for the Wildcats, but I think this will be a Bulldogs victory even if he suits up.
I'll grab the favorable number while it's available.
