Nebraska vs. Purdue Odds
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -115 | 56 -105o / -115u | +420 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -105 | 56 -105o / -115u | -540 |
West Lafayette, Indiana will be the host of a Big Ten West matchup that features two teams looking to stay hot.
Purdue is 3-1 SU and ATS in its past four matchups with Nebraska.
However, the visitor in this matchup has won both SU and ATS in each of the past two years, a trend the Cornhuskers will look to continue Saturday night.
So far this season, the Boilermakers have been the better team against the spread (3-3) as Nebraska has an abysmal 1-5 ATS record.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Cornhuskers come into Saturday night fresh off of an emotional road victory against Rutgers.
After trailing for the entire game, Casey Thompson completed a 27-yard touchdown pass to his favorite target — receiver Trey Palmer — with just under nine minutes to play.
From there, the Cornhuskers held on for the win.
Although victorious, the Cornhuskers' offense left plenty to be desired in Week 6.
Nebraska was only able to muster 72 rushing yards on 29 attempts. This rushing performance resulted in an overall rushing Explosiveness of just .91.
For much of this season, Nebraska has relied on its ground attack, which made that Week 6 performance especially concerning.
Nebraska ranks 50th in the country in Rush Rate and runs the ball on 56% of its offensive plays. Additionally, the Cornhuskers have been able to produce 3.5-Line Yards per rush this season, which gives them the ability to lean on the ground game early and often.
Without the ability to run the ball, Thompson was pressured early and often and threw a pair of interceptions.
This reliance on success in passing downs — where Nebraska’s offense only has a 33% Success Rate — is one of the many reasons the Cornhuskers were held to 14 points and trailed for most of the contest.
Unfortunately for Nebraska, Purdue is likely to continue to force the Cornhuskers into passing situations given its success up front defensively.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is looking to extend its Big Ten winning streak after defeating Minnesota and Maryland as road underdogs.
Purdue has been able to string together a three-game winning streak by being especially solid up front on defense.
Through the first six weeks of the season, the Boilermakers have yet to allow a team to have a 100-yard rusher.
Purdue’s opponents have only been able to produce 2.6-Line Yards per rush with barely any second-level or open-field yards — .6 and .2, respectively.
In addition, Purdue has a 41% Success Rate in standard downs to go with a .67 defensive Explosiveness.
This ability to force teams into passing situations will be a huge advantage against a Nebraska team that ranks 92nd in the country in pass blocking.
The lack of pass blocking by Nebraska's offensive line has allowed teams facing the Cornhuskers to post a defensive Explosiveness of 1.59 on passing plays.
The advantage only grows for Purdue with the addition of senior linebacker Jalen Graham, who returned last week after suffering a tibia injury in Week 1. Graham led the team with nine tackles in his return.
On the other side of the ball, there are plenty of reasons why Purdue will be able to have offensive success.
Purdue ranks 36th in the country in Passing Success Rate while Maryland is 90th against it.
Specifically, when looking at the run game, Purdue will look to establish a balanced attack on Saturday night. The Boilermakers rank 56th in the country in Rushing Success Rate and Nebraska is 92nd in the same category defensively.
Nebraska vs. Purdue Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nebraska and Purdue match up statistically:
Nebraska Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 24 | 37 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 92 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 52 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Purdue Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 90 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 125 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 105 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 64 | 67 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 84 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 128 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (29) | 25.6 (44) |
| Rush Rate | 56.0% (50) | 41.9% (122) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Nebraska vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Overall, the offensive troubles that have resulted in public heated arguments between Nebraska offensive coordaintor Mark Whipple and Thompson will only continue against a Boilermakers defense that excels at making teams one dimensional.
Purdue will pressure Thompson early and often and Nebraska will be forced into constant passing downs behind an offensive line that has recently struggled to protect its quarterback.
The Boilermakers' offense will be able to capitalize on Nebraska’s defensive struggles both on the ground and through the air.
Make sure to properly shop this number as several books have Purdue at just under the key number of 14.
