Nevada vs. Hawaii Odds & Picks: Will Either Offense Have Success?

Nevada vs. Hawaii Odds

Saturday, Oct. 15

11:59 p.m. ET

Spectrum PPV

Nevada Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-6.5 -110	49.5 -110o / -110u	-245

Hawaii Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+6.5 -110	49.5 -110o / -110u	+205

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Only a real sicko would be excited to bet on this late-night game between Nevada and Hawaii.

Good thing us Action Network loyalists are a bunch of sickos, and we know there's nothing better than making late-night cash on the island game.

But how do you find value in a game between 2-4 Nevada and 1-5 Hawaii?

These are two of the worst offenses and defenses in the nation. These are two teams that lost their head coaches last year and each returned just six total starters.

Hawaii is catching 6.5 points at home and the total sits just under 50. Let's dive in.

Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada pulled off some magical turnover luck en route to a 2-0 start.

Luckily, the turnover regression came, and Nevada faders rejoiced. The Wolf Pack have lost four straight games with a -52 point differential.

The defense has been particularly ugly during this time, allowing 127 points. That includes allowing 55 points to Incarnate Ward, 27 points to Iowa and 48 points to Air Force.

The Wolf Pack even lost at home against Colorado State, which brought about some interesting Mountain West hypotheticals.

Despite the disgusting numbers, Nevada looks alright in the secondary. Safety is the deepest position on the defense and the Wolf Pack are top-40 in PFF's Coverage grades and Pass Success Rate Allowed as a result.

However, the run defense gets trucked on a regular basis.

And on the other side of the ball, I'd rather watch paint dry than this offense.

The unit returned just two starters from last year's Carson Strong-led squad, and it really shows. Nevada ranks among the bottom-15 FBS teams in every single advanced statistical category.

Nevada is barely squeaking out four YPP and only averages 160 pass yards per game. Nate Cox is not the answer at quarterback and neither is Shane Illingworth.

But at least the top two rushers returned from last season and have combined for 640 yards and 11 touchdowns. Both are averaging just four YPC, but at least it's better than the aerial attack.

Special teams is the strength of the team. Nevada has a legit top-20 special teams unit, led by kicker Brandon Talton and kick returner Jamaal Bell. In a Mountain West game as ugly as this one, that seems rather important to mention.

Hawaii Warriors

Rainbow Warrior football used to be fun. Then Todd Graham blew everything up and 15 starters left for greener pastures.

Rainbow Warrior football is now a dumpster fire. Timmy Chang, a former Hawaii quarterback, has very little to work with and isn't doing much with it. Hence why Hawaii is 1-5, with its only win coming against FCS Duquesne.

Brayden Schager is going to be the undisputed QB1 going forward. Chang is trying to move toward a run-and-shoot offense with lots of receiver motion and option routes.

It hasn't worked yet, but it might. Schrager was decent in the second half against San Diego State (10-for-14, 136 yards) and could be building up.

The good news for Schager is that Hawaii has a good offensive line. The line had 110 career starts coming into the season and has only grown underneath Chang's leadership. Hawaii ranks 15th in PFF's Pass Blocking grades and is top 60 in Rush Success Rate.

But no matter the small successes, Hawaii still managed a measly two touchdowns against San Diego State's far overrated passing defense.

There's not a single good thing to say about the Rainbow Warriors' defense. You can look at the advanced statistics below, where they rank in the bottom 10 of every important advanced metric.

Hawaii returned just two defensive starters from last season and is allowing over 7.1 YPP. Only Colorado has allowed more EPA per play this season than the Rainbow Warriors.

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Nevada vs. Hawaii Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and Hawaii match up statistically:

Nevada Offense vs. Hawaii Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	113	125
Line Yards	101	127
Pass Success	119	108
Pass Blocking**	119	127
Havoc	115	125
Finishing Drives	51	124
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Hawaii Offense vs. Nevada Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	103	113
Line Yards	62	88
Pass Success	127	24
Pass Blocking**	15	120
Havoc	79	70
Finishing Drives	127	71
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	96	124
PFF Coverage	37	124
SP+ Special Teams	19	90
Seconds per Play	25.3 (40)	25.7 (48)
Rush Rate	56.8% (42)	43.8% (116)

Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Nevada vs. Hawaii Betting Pick

These are two ugly, ugly offenses.

Both are among the bottom-15 FBS teams in Pass Success Rate and Pass EPA per play. Neither offense has been able to consistently move the ball, create explosive plays or punch the ball in (both teams are poor in Points Per Opportunity).

For example, Nevada is in Passing Downs more than any other Mountain West team. The Wolf Pack can't stay ahead of schedule, much less move the chains.

We're going to be tired when this game hits our screens at midnight Eastern Time. We should then witness the ugliest island football game ever played — one that the Action Network's Collin Wilson projects at 39.5 points.

I'm on the under and I love it at this number. However, I would advise caution on playing it under the key number of 49.

Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) at DraftKings