North Carolina vs. Duke Odds
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 69 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 69 -110o / -110u | +230 |
This game may not have the same hype as if these two met on the hardwood, but rest assured, there is very much bad blood between these two storied programs when they meet on the turf.
North Carolina has had the upper hand in this rivalry, with a winning record of 64-40-4 all-time. The Heels won in the last meeting, 38-7, in 2021.
While I was initially down on both of their outlooks going into this college football year, Duke and North Carolina have impressed so far and are set up for another exciting installment in this rivalry.
Will UNC be able to increase its lead in this rivalry as the road favorite? Or will Duke get the upset? Let's find out.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Even without Sam Howell, this passing offense hasn't skipped a beat.
Drake Maye has been as good as you could ask for in terms of leading this downfield attack, as he's thrown for 1,903 yards, 21 touchdowns and three interceptions.
The Air Raid attack has been the most lethal in the nation, as the Heels currently rank first in Pass Success. Maye has plenty of weapons to work with, as eight receivers have accumulated over 120 receiving yards or more.
Drake Maye to JJ Jones 74 yd TD 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VGRUPbEVwd
— tarheelupdate (@tarheelupdate) October 8, 2022
UNC also capitalizes in moments that matter, ranking top-five in Finishing Drives. When it's capable of sustaining a drive without losing it to Havoc, UNC can score at will.
While the offense has been elite, the defense has been collectively one of the worst units in football. The Heels currently rank on the wrong side of 100 in the six advanced defensive metrics.
One metric to watch while they are on defense will be the battle in the trenches. While porous on the backend, UNC actually fields a good defensive line. That unit will need to rise to the occasion, as Duke has a great offensive line that will look to limit backfield pressure.
Duke Blue Devils
Sometimes my analysis is spot on — like when I took the o2.5 Kansas win total. And sometimes I'm dead wrong — like when I took Duke's under of three.
While I assumed Duke would slowly improve after a complete overhaul, I did not anticipate that it would be ready to go by year one.
While the passing attack has regressed, the running game has not skipped a beat. This is in large part to the Blue Devils' top-10 offensive line that is generating room for the backs to work with.
Running backs Jaquez Moore and Jordan Waters are poised for a big outing, as UNC ranks 122nd in Defensive Rush Success and 108th in Defensive Line Yards.
Should Duke move the ball down the field — as expected — it will need to capitalize with touchdowns. The Blue Devils currently rank 100th in Finishing Drives, and they will be hard pressed to match UNC's scoring pace.
The Duke defense will need to find a way to get to Maye. While Maye has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football, he has been prone to Havoc, and Duke's offense will need as many possessions as it can get.
North Carolina vs. Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Duke match up statistically:
North Carolina Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 85 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 81 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 25 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 92 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Duke Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 10 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 21 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 101 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 35 | 112 |
| PFF Coverage | 108 | 98 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 29 | 62 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.0 (26) | 28.2 (98) |
| Rush Rate | 52.7% (73) | 55.9% (51) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Pick
Forgive me for I have sinned (since I'm a Heels fan), but I will be tailing the Duke Blue Devils to cover in this one.
Duke has the offense to exploit UNC's horrendous defense and to keep pace with its scoring output. The Blue Devils field a near top-20 offensive line in Pass Blocking, negating UNC's only defensive bright spot.
While the Duke defense may be in for a long night, it's capable of putting its offense in good positioning should it capitalize on Havoc opportunities. While explosive, UNC is prone to making mistakes and stalling out drives.
The Blue Devils will also need to limit open=field playmaking, as they are one of the worst tackling units, per PFF. Generating pressure in the backfield and making Maye uncomfortable will ease the load on the secondary.
Take Duke and the points at no lower than +7 in what will be an exciting back and forth showdown.
