Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -115 | 64.5 -115o / -105u | -4000 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -105 | 64.5 -115o / -105u | +1400 |
As the old saying goes, "when it rains, it pours," and boy is it pouring down on the Michigan State Spartans.
No, I'm not talking about C.J. Stroud's six passing touchdowns in the first half against the Spartans last year, or the thrashing the Buckeyes gave them for a full four quarters.
I'm talking about the fictitious cliff that the Spartans have been free falling from since their loss to Washington. They've lost three in a row with the Buckeyes on deck.
Brutal.
As for Ohio State, it started rocky in its last game out against Rutgers, but Stroud and company reminded everyone why they are one of the best units in football.
Can the Spartans stop their free fall from the bottom of the Big Ten standings and shock the nation? Or will Stroud string together another masterful performance? Let's find out.
Ohio State Buckeyes
After a shaky start against the Fighting Irish to open the season, it's safe to say Ohio State found its groove by comfortably beating every opponent after by 30 or more.
While Stroud is the Heisman favorite at +150, it should realistically be -10000.
He has captained the offense to near top-10 ranks in every advanced offensive category while throwing for 1,376 yards, 18 touchdowns and two interceptions.
He has a beautiful chance to increase his lead against a Michigan State secondary that is 108th in Defensive Pass Success Rate.
Let's not forget what he did to the Spartans last year.
Better yet for the Ohio State offense, Ryan Day confirmed star running back TreVeyon Henderson will be returning — but in limited capacity. He will be accompanied by Miyan Williams, who took the brunt of the load last week and put up a 189-yard, five-touchdown performance.
As for the defense, the unit has improved — as expected — after bringing in highly-touted defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
After getting torched by opposing offenses last season, Knowles has Ohio State in the top 20 in both Pass and Rush Success Rate while being above average in other categories.
Should they want to take the next step in becoming elite on both ends, Ohio State will drastically need to improve its open field tackling, as it's currently one of the worst in the nation in this area, per PFF.
This is a major flaw that could end up hurting the Buckeyes down the road.
Michigan State Spartans
It seems like forever ago since "Tuck Comin" shocked the nation by destroying their season win total over and upsetting eventual Big Ten champs Michigan, but that's what three straight losses does to you.
This is in large part due to their inability to stop the pass.
Fielding one of the worst secondaries in the nation, teams like Washington and Maryland were able to throw all over them. While ranking near dead last in Defensive Pass Success Rate, they also are 107th in Coverage.
Taulia stepped up and delivered a dime to @Cdychh & @TerpsFootball drives for their 2nd TD today. 🔥@tauliaa12 x @1kcmcpic.twitter.com/HGIma7MgZl
— Maryland On BTN (@MarylandOnBTN) October 1, 2022
While the Spartans own one of the best open-field tackling units in football, it doesn't matter if you can't limit explosive plays.
Their inability to generate any Havoc or backfield pressure has given opposing offenses clean looks, which has resulted in their defense getting burned.
If the Spartans want any sort of chance of upsetting the Buckeyes, then they will have to generate some sort of Havoc and give their offense a field-position advantage.
Payton Thorne will also need to limit his turnovers, as he's thrown six interceptions to his eight touchdowns so far into the season.
Every possession matters more than ever when going against an elite team like Ohio State.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio State and Michigan State match up statistically:
Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 1 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 108 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 14 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 38 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Michigan State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 85 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 4 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 5 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 64 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 99 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 107 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 93 | 125 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (86) | 23.7 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 55.2% (56) | 45.5% (109) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Betting Pick
Michigan State is finally falling back down to earth after a shocking performance last season, and going against Ohio State in the midst of it is going to do the Spartans no favors.
With the spread sitting at -26.5 and a total that is too high for my liking for Michigan State to be able to contribute too, I will instead shift my focus elsewhere.
Last season we witnessed Ohio State score 49 points in the first half, and I see no reason why it can't put on a show again.
Michigan State's secondary is its Achilles heel and the unit is poised to get torched once again by the high-flying Ohio State offense. Stroud is in the middle of a Heisman campaign — one I don't see slowing down anytime soon.
Take Ohio State's first half spread at -14 or better, as Stroud will look to start out hot and put away the game early.
