Old Dominion vs. East Carolina Odds
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -106 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +400 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -114 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -550 |
Both Old Dominion and East Carolina appeared prominently on the national radar last week, as they each had upset bids come down to the wire in the early afternoon block of games on Saturday.
ODU’s bid was successful, as it was able to defeat Virginia Tech. However, East Carolina fell just short of upsetting North Carolina State.
While both of these games were impressive showings against ACC opponents, one team was much more impressive and should have prevailed. Both of these games made an appearance in my weekly “Misleading Box Scores” column.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion brought back much of its production from last season, including 10 starters on offense and seven on defense. Five of the Monarchs' top six tacklers were among those returning on the defensive side of the ball.
The defense was the Monarchs' best attribute last year, ranking 59th in Success Rate.
The offense, on the other hand, struggled at times — ODU’s offense ranked 80th in the country against a relatively weak schedule.
Hayden Wolff is back at quarterback. When he took over last season, the Old Dominion offense experienced a dramatic jump from 19 points per game to 28. In Week 1, he struggled, however, going 14-of-35 (40%) for 165 yards.
Old Dominion is going to need a better performance from Wolff if it wants to win this game.
The Monarchs' first showing of the season against a rebuilding Virginia Tech team was no different. Old Dominion was not able to generate any offense, mustering figures that didn’t rank higher than the first percentile in EPA per play, Success Rate and yards per play
Luckily for ODU, it was bailed out by five Virginia Tech turnovers and gained 6.14 EPA on penalties.
East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina was much more impressive in Week 1. NC State is looked at as a potential playoff dark horse contender, and ECU was able to outplay the Wolfpack.
East Carolina’s offense didn’t have its best game, but still outgained the Wolfpack 6.25 to 5.82 in yards per play and had a Success rate in the 47th percentile.
Unfortunately, the special teams unit for ECU let it down in the end, preventing the upset.
It seems like Holton Ahlers has been at East Carolina forever. He first started for the Pirates in 2018 and is now in his fifth year as their signal-caller. At this point, Ahlers has over 10,000 passing yards in his career, but this has not led to much success, with 2021 being his first winning season (7-5).
If he plays like he typically does and avoids turnovers (unlike last week), this ECU offense should be just fine on Saturday.
The defense is the unit that I believe will shine this weekend. East Carolina returns eight starters from a unit that ranked 37th in the nation in Defensive Success Rate in 2021.
The Pirates showed just how strong they are by only allowing NC State a fifth percentile outcome in EPA/Play and a Success Rate in the 21st percentile.
If an NC State offense that is much more talented and high-powered than Old Dominion’s struggled to move the ball, what do you think will happen this week?
Virginia Tech’s defense ranked just 70th in Success Rate last season. NC State, on the other hand, had the 79th-best offense in Success Rate.
Keeping in mind the strength of opponents that were faced last year and how good this ECU defense should be this year, I don’t see how Old Dominion has any success on offense.
Old Dominion vs. East Carolina Betting Pick
I’m also on East Carolina to cover 12.5, but my favorite pick in this game is Old Dominion under 19.5 points.
East Carolina’s defense is the best unit in this game, and ODU’s offense was putrid last weekend.
I expect this to be a lower-scoring affair, but I think that the Pirates' offense at least has a chance to have a decent day. I can’t say the same for the other side, as the Monarchs may struggle to find the end zone.
