Oregon vs. Arizona Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 70.5 -110o / -110u | -530 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 70.5 -110o / -110u | +390 |
Buckle in, as anytime a couple of Pac-12 teams play after dark, things tend to get a little unusual.
The Oregon Ducks have beaten Arizona by at least three touchdowns in back-to-back meetings, but the Wildcats could have something brewing in Tucson this season behind quarterback Jayden de Laura and a trio of dangerous receiving options.
Both teams have massive gulfs between their offenses and defenses. The Ducks and Wildcats pack a punch offensively, but their defenses leave much to be desired.
Will Oregon continue its surge since a Week 1 embarrassment to Georgia, or do the Wildcats have enough to cover or even win their second conference game of the season?
Oregon Ducks
Since laying a complete egg against Georgia in the season opener, Oregon has looked like a completely different team on the offensive side of the ball.
The Ducks have scored at least 41 points in each of their last four games. The best version of Bo Nix manned the offense behind the best offensive line of his career.
The transfer quarterback has only thrown one interception since facing the Bulldogs, while completing almost 69% of his passes for 1,261 yards and 12 touchdowns.
He's also added 261 yards and five more touchdowns on the ground.
Outside of Nix's passing success, the Ducks are 10th in the nation, averaging 228.8 yards per game and rushing at a 6.0 yards per clip rate. This stat bodes well for Oregon this weekend, as Arizona ranks 125th in run defense, allowing 213.4 yards per game on the ground.
There have still been some issues defensively for Oregon since Week 1, however.
The Ducks are allowing 424.3 yards of offense against Power Five teams this season (four games). They've surrendered more than 40 points twice this season and have yet to hold an FBS team to fewer than three touchdowns.
The Ducks could get back a big piece of their defense in linebacker Justin Flowe. Flowe, who led the team in tackles with 19, missed last week versus Stanford with an undisclosed injury. It was already the second game he missed this season.
Arizona Wildcats
What a turnaround it's been for Jedd Fisch in Year 2 at Arizona, as the 3-2 Wildcats already have three times as many season wins as they did in 2021 and can surpass their Pac-12 win total with one more victory this year.
The transformation has hinged largely on the back of one of the best passing games in the conference.
Washington State transfer de Laura has passed for more than 400 yards in each of Arizona's two games against Pac-12 opponents this season, including throwing for 484 yards and six touchdowns against Colorado last week.
De Laura has thrown just one interception to 13 touchdowns this season and has found quite an on-field chemistry with transfer wide receiver Jacob Cowing.
The dangerous slot receiver has accounted for 566 yards and seven touchdowns, including a dozen receptions of at least 20 yards in length — tied for the fourth most in the country.
Like Oregon, the Arizona defense has lagged behind the success of the offense. The aforementioned run defense has been a liability, ranking 128th and 127th in Run Success Rate and Line Yards, respectively.
The Wildcats are allowing more than 400 yards per game on defense and 31.2 points per game, the 10th-worst mark in the Pac-12.
Oregon vs. Arizona Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Arizona match up statistically:
Oregon Offense vs. Arizona Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 114 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 1 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 122 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Arizona Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 113 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 40 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 130 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 75 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 55 | 114 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (36) | 23.9 (25) |
| Rush Rate | 52.0% (79) | 42.7% (119) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon vs. Arizona Betting Pick
Things usually get a little weird on the West Coast in these late kickoffs, and this may not be an exception as both offenses could pose difficulties for the opposing defense.
I have more confidence that Oregon's offense will be able to continue its success against the Wildcats, as it's not as one-dimensional, and the Ducks put up numbers against a quality BYU defense.
Arizona has really only played one defense this season of similar caliber to BYU, Mississippi State. Against the Bulldogs, de Laura and the Wildcats had their worst game of the season. De Laura was intercepted three times as Arizona scored a season-low 17 points.
Oregon's secondary isn't as good as Mississippi State's, but it should be good enough here to cover the spread. De Laura has thrown multiple picks in both of Arizona's losses this season, as he presses a bit more when the Wildcats trail.
I expect the Ducks to get up early and lean on their successful ground attack, forcing de Laura to be even more aggressive. Oregon should come up with a few interceptions and win this by at least two touchdowns.
