Pitt vs. Western Michigan Odds
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -106 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -410 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -114 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +315 |
Nearly 365 days have passed since we witnessed Western Michigan take down Pittsburgh 44-41.
Since then, Pitt went on to win the ACC against Wake Forest, but lost its bowl game against MSU to end the season. This year, the Panthers opened with a thriller against West Virginia, but lost in a heartbreaker last week in OT against Tennessee.
Western, on the other hand, ended its 2021 campaign on a high note by beating a depleted Nevada squad in the Quick Lane Bowl. The Broncos' outlook isn't as glamorous this season after massive turnover. Narrowly escaping Ball State with a win, they are currently 1-1 heading into this matchup.
Does Pat Narduzzi get his revenge a full year later?
Pittsburgh Panthers
While Pitt showed some promise as a conference contender against Tennessee, it wasn't without imperfection, as it took a massive blow at the most important position.
The Panthers head into this one with uncertainty at quarterback. Kedon Slovis was ruled out with a concussion, and backup Nick Patti suffered a severe ankle injury on a scramble, although he stayed in the game for overtime.
No matter who starts, they are not short of weapons, as we may see a run-heavy script against Western's poor rush defense. Israel Abanikanda had a good showing last time out, rushing for 154 yards and one touchdown at an average of 6.2 yards per carry.
He is poised for another big game, as he looks to take advantage of the Broncos' near dead last ranking in Line Yards and Defensive Rush Success metrics.
YOU CAN'T CATCH ISRAEL ABANIKANDA💨
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 10, 2022
Speaking of defense, will the real Pitt defense please stand up? While the metrics may be skewed after it faced high-powered offenses in West Virginia and Tennessee, it was still alarming to see it struggle to slow them down after years of shelling out vaunted defenses.
That is especially true with a majority of the Panthers' production returning from last year.
The defensive line has its part down — clogging the trenches and generating backfield pressure — but the secondary has been getting cooked.
This game is a good tune-up opportunity to get the defense back on track in preparation for conference season, where more explosive offenses will be on deck.
Western Michigan Broncos
This isn't the Western Michigan we have known and loved over years past — the team that cashed our season win total over last year.
Western Michigan has been decimated by turnover this season, ranking 129th in Offensive TARP at 21% and 112th in Defensive TARP at 42%.
The lack of continuity is apparent, as the offense has gone into lulls, rarely sustaining a productive drive. This has led the Broncos to rely on explosive plays to put them in scoring position, a style of offense that will struggle against Pitt's backfield pressure.
Should the line hold its own, there will be opportunities to exploit the Pitt secondary. That unit has not shown so far this season that it can limit open-field plays, as it owns below average Success Rates and a 92nd rank in PFF Tackling.
It will be up to the backfield combo of Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson to give Western's offense some life, as quarterback Jack Salopek has struggled via the air. The duo has combined for 273 yards and five touchdowns so far this season.
Pitt vs. Western Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Western Michigan match up statistically:
Pitt Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 92 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 122 |  |
| Pass Success | 73 | 65 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 65 | 122 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 68 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Western Michigan Offense vs. Pitt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 119 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 99 | 23 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 74 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 92 | 87 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 92 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 125 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (96) | 27.0 (81) |
| Rush Rate | 53.1% (62) | 50.3% (74) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Pitt vs. Western Michigan Betting Pick
Projected at -19, per Collin Wilson's projections, I was surprised to see this open at -10. That is a number I jumped on immediately, and one that you can still find out there.
Even with questions at the most important position, Pitt is more than capable of still moving the ball on the ground. That's an identity the Panthers have been accustomed to in years past.
The defense has also yet to show up, albeit going against two good offenses in WVU and Tennessee. This matchup can serve as a get-right game for the Pitt secondary, as the Broncos' offense has struggled to generate any production so far this season.
Take Pitt in a revenge spot at no higher than -13.5. This will be a reminder as to why it's a serious ACC contender.
