San Jose State vs. Fresno State Odds
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -320 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +265 |
Talk about two teams heading in completely opposite directions.
After a tune up win against Cal Poly and taking Oregon State to the brink, Fresno State has been falling off of a cliff. After losing starting quarterback Jake Haener in the USC game, the Bulldogs' struggles were on full display when they embarrassingly lost to UConn.
Fresno State is being given a bounce back opportunity against San Jose State, one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Spartans were one possession away from taking down Auburn and have handled everyone else since then.
Will Fresno State find the offense that gave Oregon State a scare? Or will San Jose State add another win to its record?
San Jose State Spartans
Benefiting from Hawaii's talent exodus, San Jose State added quarterback Chevan Cordeiro from the transfer portal and the move has paid immediate dividends.
While the Spartans don't boast the most lethal passing offense — they rank 92nd in Pass Success — Cordeiro has done just enough to help his team succeed. He's thrown for 1,308 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions.
He's received plenty of help from an elite offensive line that ranks top-20 in Pass Blocking. The Spartans' elite protection has led to sustained drives that result in points on the board.
With Fresno State fielding a weak defense, the Spartans may find themselves moving the ball with ease yet again.
On the other end, San Jose State benefits from the loss of Haener, as the Bulldogs' offense has his rock bottom. The Spartans have a clear advantage in nearly every defensive metric, especially in Defensive Finishing Drives. This is a metric that will be vital to our ticket cashing.
Fresno State Bulldogs
It's crazy to think this offense once was capable of keeping pace with USC, only to see its sliver of light fade away with the injury to Haener.
The train has completely fallen off the tracks, and this offense has turned horrific. While the offensive line has done everything it can at an elite level, the unit is helpless to turn around an offense that ranks 80th or worse in both Pass Success and Rush Success.
Backup quarterback Logan Fife has been absolutely dreadful. He's thrown for 431 yards, zero touchdowns and four interceptions. He is given a potential bounce back opportunity, as the Spartans don't generate backfield pressure at all and give opposing quarterbacks clean pockets.
Should Fife continue to struggle, we may see redshirt freshmen Jaylen Henderson get some reps under center.
The offense is bad, but the defense isn't much better. San Jose State is elite at taking care of the ball, but the Bulldogs will have to find a way to break that apart should they want a chance at the upset.
San Jose State vs. Fresno State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Fresno State match up statistically:
San Jose State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 92 | 86 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 14 | 97 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 109 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Fresno State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 82 | 68 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 16 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 22 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 89 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 88 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 113 | 84 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (100) | 26.4 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 48.9% (92) | 48.1% (97) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
San Jose State vs. Fresno State Betting Pick
With both the total and spread moving out of range to be a play, my focus shifts elsewhere.
I initially liked the under, but was too slow to pull the trigger, as it gained steam right away. Instead, I will be taking a first-half under, as you can still grab the key number of 24 at some books.
When San Jose State has the ball, you can expect it to take care of business at a slow pace. Fresno State poses no threat to generate Havoc, meaning there likely won't be any funny business ruining our under.
As for Fresno State, this offensive identity has completely disappeared under Fife. The Bulldogs will be hard pressed to move the ball against the Spartans, who have an advantage in nearly every defensive category.
Expect long, methodical clock-bleeding drives with limited scoring opportunities on the Bulldogs' end. Take the first half under at no lower than 24, as well as a live opportunity on San Jose State at any number lower than -7.
