Southern Miss vs. Tulane Odds
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +365 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -490 |
After pulling off a shocking win in Manhattan against Kansas State, Tulane has started out 3-0 for the first time since 1998, when it went on to finish ranked in the top-10 nationally.
The Green Wave are a legit sleeper in what looks like a pretty wide open AAC.
Can head coach Willie Fritz keep his kids focused for a final non-conference tune-up against Southern Miss prior to conference play? Or will his old offensive coordinator Will Hall — now the head coach of the Eagles — keep this one close?
Let's take a closer look.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles have started out 1-2, with a blowout win over an FCS school and a pair of losses to Liberty and Miami.
Coming into the season, I thought Southern Miss had a chance to be one of the most improved teams in the country. The Golden Eagles have shown potential at times, but a constant quarterback shuffle has really held back the offense.
On the bright side, they have exceeded oddsmakers' expectations in all three games so far this season.
Freshman Zach Wilcke won the QB1 job this week in practice, but you can once again expect multiple quarterbacks. Hall stated Ty Keyes will also get time under center.
Plus, you never know when they will break out the wildcat with Frank Gore Jr. running the show. That does make them difficult to prepare for, but also highlights the inconsistencies under center.
Meanwhile, the extremely veteran defense — which features some Power Five talent — is the strength of the team. The Golden Eagles have an especially stingy pass defense as a result of a stout secondary and a disruptive front that excels at getting into opponents' backfields.
Tulane Green Wave
After beating two absolute cupcakes, Tulane really turned some heads by upsetting Kansas State.
This is a team I was extremely high on coming into the season, which was why I played the season win total over 6. The potential for a breakout season was all there for the Green Wave after a year where everything just broke against them.
So far, they've done it all with an extremely impressive defense that ranks in the top 20 in almost every statistical category imaginable.
The strength of the defense lies up front with a Havoc-creating defensive line and a rock-solid linebacker corps. Not many have managed to contain Kansas State star running back Deuce Vaughn the way Tulane did last week.
The secondary, which really struggled against any passing offense with a pulse in 2021, had the most question marks coming into the season. That's still the case after not being tested at all through the first three games — since Kansas State has refused to throw the ball downfield.
Quarterback Michael Pratt, who previously started as a true freshman, leads an offense that is under new guidance with offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda.
I personally loved the hire, especially since I'm not a fan of previous OC Chip Long, who apparently didn't get along with some of the key players last season.
Judging by many of the advanced metrics, the offense has actually struggled so far this year after adjusting for opponent. The rushing attack has been particularly anemic, but Pratt and company did just enough to pull off the upset over Kansas State that the defense drove with a dominant effort.
Southern Miss vs. Tulane Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Southern Miss and Tulane match up statistically:
Southern Miss Offense vs. Tulane Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 16 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 129 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 22 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Tulane Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 3 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 29 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 82 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 91 | 21 |
| PFF Coverage | 64 | 20 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 50 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (90) | 26.8 (76) |
| Rush Rate | 62.4% (16) | 60.9% (24) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Southern Miss vs. Tulane Betting Pick
On paper, this is a decent matchup for Southern Miss in a great situational spot.
Its pass rush and reliable secondary can contain Pratt, while I'm not sure Tulane's lackluster rushing attack can exploit an area of weakness for the Golden Eagles.
On the other side of the ball, this Tulane secondary has yet to be tested. That should change on Saturday with a Southern Miss offense that is far from efficient but very explosive. It will take and hit a few shots downfield.
There's a lot of familiarity with these two staffs, as Southern Miss head coach Hall served as offensive coordinator at Tulane under Fritz in 2019-20. I actually think that works in the favor of the underdog in this particular case.
Additionally, Southern Miss has a rest and preparation edge after beating Northwestern State last week by 54 points.
I assume it spent a good chunk of the week leading up to that game preparing for Tulane, while the Green Wave likely spent every possible minute getting ready for Kansas State.
Tulane also could come out a bit flat after such an emotional win, especially considering it has a date with Houston on the road next week to kick off conference play. It's definitely a bit of a sandwich spot.
I show value in this number and think Tulane is being a bit overvalued after that upset last week. Keep in mind Kansas State also could've been caught looking ahead a bit to Oklahoma this week.
As long as it avoids turnovers and can connect on a few explosive passing plays, Southern Miss can keep it closer than two touchdowns, especially since I think this one might be lower scoring, which makes taking the points a bit more valuable.
I'd certainly look at the under, or pass if you were interested in betting the total.
