Stanford vs. Washington Odds
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -108 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +420 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -112 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -580 |
Conference play is officially starting to heat up in Week 4, and we have a good one out West with the Stanford Cardinal heading to Seattle to take on the undefeated Washington Huskies.
The Cardinal are fresh off of a bye week after losing their Pac-12 opener to USC at home.
Meanwhile, the Huskies enter this game with plenty of momentum after dominating Michigan State last week and moving to 3-0 on the season.
This has been an incredibly competitive series over the last decade, and both opponents know each other very well. The Pac-12 may have gotten rid of divisions, but this will be an important game for early positioning in the standings.
Can the visiting Cardinal hang tough in a raucous environment? Or will the Huskies win big again at home and remain undefeated?
Let's get into it.
Stanford Cardinal
The early bye week may have come at the right time after the Cardinal gave up 500 yards of offense to Caleb Williams and USC the last time out.
This is a critical year for David Shaw given the struggles Stanford has had the last couple of seasons.
Shaw's run on The Farm got off to an unbelievable start, with the Cardinal regularly competing for Pac-12 titles and taking multiple trips to the Rose Bowl.
To be in the mix for those types of games this season, Shaw knows his team cannot afford an 0-2 start to conference play. Expect a motivated Stanford team to enter Seattle on Saturday night.
The Stanford offense is the reason why many thought this team could be improved in 2022.
Tanner McKee returns under center after a promising season a year ago, and the offensive line is much healthier. Coach Shaw noted this week that the offensive line is playing better right now than at any point last season.
Running back E.J. Smith is averaging just under seven yards a carry thus far, and is turning some heads with his play. Smith will unfortunately be out this week with an injury, as the versatile Casey Filkins will step in as the starting running back.
Stanford needs the running game to step up to help take some pressure off McKee and give the offense a bit more balance.
When Stanford has had it going, the defense has been the hallmark of its teams. That hasn't been the case in recent years, and the results have dipped because of it.
The Cardinal enter this matchup ranking outside the top 70 in Defensive Pass Success Rate, and the secondary will certainly be tested facing Michael Penix Jr.
Stanford also ranks outside the top 100 in generating Havoc, something that will need to change this week if it wants to get some timely stops and get off the field.
Washington Huskies
Kalen DeBoer and Penix reuniting out West didn't get much buzz in the offseason, but college football fans have officially been put on notice after last week's thrashing of Michigan State.
Penix has been one of the best early storylines of this young season, as the Indiana transfer has looked dynamite in his new home after multiple injuries in his last few years in Bloomington.
Two stats that really tell the story for this team offensively are Pass Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The Huskies are third in the nation in Passing Success Rate and check in at 17th in Finishing Drives. This group is going for big plays through the air, but also punching the ball in when it gets to the red zone.
As encouraging as the offense has been, I still have some concerns about the defense.
The numbers are solid across the board, but Michigan State got some things going in the second half last week.
McKee and the Stanford offense will provide a legitimate test for this defense, particularly the secondary, which is a unit that has lost multiple studs to the NFL in recent years.
Washington will be eager to force some turnovers against Stanford on Saturday night, and whether or not it can will go a long way in deciding how this contest plays out.
Stanford vs. Washington Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and Washington match up statistically:
Stanford Offense vs. Washington Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 83 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 61 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 65 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Washington Offense vs. Stanford Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 18 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 34 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 47 | 87 |
| PFF Coverage | 92 | 63 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 63 | 52 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.9 (39) | 25.2 (42) |
| Rush Rate | 52.9% (71) | 48.5% (97) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Stanford vs. Washington Betting Pick
Ultimately, I expect this game to be much closer than what the number suggests. I love the situational spot for Stanford with two weeks to prepare for a Washington team coming off of an emotional win over Sparty.
McKee and the Cardinal offense should find some success through the air and put points on the board.
I trust that McKee will take better care of the ball after throwing two picks against USC in the conference opener.
Shaw has been really effective throughout his career coming off of a bye week, and the defense should be more prepared for Penix and the Huskies passing attack than it was for Williams and the Trojans.
Washington is the favorite in this game for a reason, but give me Stanford to hang around and comfortably hang inside the two-touchdown number.
