TCU vs. Kansas Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -104 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -118 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | +202 |
Both Kansas and TCU deserve a standing ovation for a number of reasons. Both teams enter Week 6 undefeated straight up and against the spread, but more importantly, they have captivated all the attention away from the Red River Rivalry.
As Texas and Oklahoma are set to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, the Horned Frogs and Jayhawks look to further a path to not only a conference title, but a legitimate slot in future playoff rankings.
Each of these teams have blown through opponents on the offensive side of the ball thanks to potent ground attacks.
Kansas blasted opponents for 200 yards on the ground until last week's gut check against Iowa State.
TCU has had even more success on the ground, posting more than 360 rushing yards on Oklahoma to top a previous mark of 275 against Colorado.
Two college basketball programs that are set to do damage in March Madness will collide with College GameDay as the backdrop, signifying the Big 12 will remain a power conference through the upcoming transition.
TCU Horned Frogs
The Sonny Dykes transition from Dallas to Fort Worth has been the biggest success story from an offensive perspective.
The injury to Chandler Morris against Colorado circled the Horned Frogs back to fourth-year quarterback Max Duggan. The turnover-prone Council Bluffs native has been elite in ball protection, with just a single fumble and no interceptions through 94 passing attempts.
Duggan leads the most explosive ground attack in the nation, assisted by running backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado.
A near 700-yard outburst against Oklahoma signified not only the power of the TCU offense, but the gap that lies between the Sooners and the top teams in the Big 12.
TCU has scored on 29 of 49 drives this season, with only two of those scoring drives ending in field goal.
The success of the offense has overshadowed an improving defense.
Coordinator Joe Gillespie inherited a TCU defense that was near dead last in almost every advanced statistical category last season.
The scheme change from Gary Patterson's 4-2-5 to Gillespie's 3-3-5 has paid dividends, as TCU is top-25 in Defensive Passing Success Rate with a coverage grade inside the top 50, per PFF.
While the overall Havoc numbers are mid-FBS, linebacker Dee Winters has been a one-man chaos crew. Winters has logged 10 pressures and four sacks, along with 11 stops (defined as a tackle that constitutes a failure for the offense).
Kansas Jayhawks
The Kansas offense has been a fantastic study for any student of the game wanting to learn.
Lance Leipold has unleashed quarterback Jalon Daniels in 11 and 12 personnel through the shotgun or the pistol. The main component of the Kansas offense is zone read turned play action with a precursor of heavy motion.
There have been tremendous highlights of Daniels dissecting opponents, with almost every reel including motion and RPO.
Coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has a deep bag of tricks that includes plenty of misdirection to confuse defenses keyed on Daniels.
This was just savage from @Kotelnicki. Direct snap to Devin Neal, handoff to Jalon Daniels, fake end-around to backup QB Jason Bean, all while Jared Casey acts like he’s blocking a LB before slipping open. pic.twitter.com/WJJsP8uQOp
— Kevin Flaherty (@KFlaherty247) September 19, 2022
Daniels has attempted 42 play-action passes out of 107 attempts, but there has been no drop in his Big Time Throw rate or his average depth of target, no matter the scheme.
The passing game is just a small part of the Jayhawks' offense, as it's dominated by a rush rate of 63%.
The ability for an opponent to master zone read and protect contain from the defensive end position is crucial, as Kansas has run 40% of all rushing attempts directly off tackle, generating half of all its first downs gained this season.
Credit is certainly deserved on the defensive side of the ball, as the unit ranks second in tackle grading. Coordinator D.J. Eliot's 3-4 hybrid scheme has been top-50 against explosive plays, but Success Rate continues to be an issue.
The Jayhawks have allowed 110 first downs this season, ranking outside the top 75 in Success Rate with a Havoc number that is outside the top 100.
The transfer of Lonnie Phelps has been critical to the Jayhawks. He leads the team in pressures — with just one missed tackle — while splitting snaps from the left- and right-edge position.
TCU vs. Kansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Kansas match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 79 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 86 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 18 | 70 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 53 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kansas Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 15 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 25 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 74 | 99 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 25 | 109 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 2 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 56 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 94 | 107 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.5 (105) | 28.7 (108) |
| Rush Rate | 54.2% (64) | 62.2% (17) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
TCU vs. Kansas Betting Pick
Plenty of steam hit the TCU -5 opener up to a touchdown, which was a foregone conclusion after the Horned Frogs blew out Oklahoma and Kansas struggled with Iowa State.
The Jayhawks purposefully played less aggressive against the Cyclones' 3-3-5 defense. Leipold had a pregame approach that leaned more towards punting and field position, especially after the offense struggled to get in rhythm.
Daniels threw the ball just 14 times, completing only half of his passes. The 3-3-5 stack kept Daniels from a touchdown pass for the first time this season, even with a low 37% Success Rate in passes against zone coverage.
One of the hidden reasons for Kansas' struggles is its lack of reaction to motion from a 3-3-5 defense. The Jayhawks have been dependent on motion to force the defense to tip its hand in coverage and blitz.
Daniels will face the 3-3-5 scheme once again when TCU comes to town. The Jayhawks had a Passing Downs Success Rate of just 8% against Iowa State, making the Horned Frogs play in Standard Downs crucial to the handicap.
TCU has been excellent in stopping explosiveness in on-schedule down and distances, but it ranks dead last in defending the explosive play during passing downs.
Expect the Kansas offense to have frustrations in terms of sustaining drives, but the big play in long down and distances will get points on the board for the Jayhawks.
There is no evidence in the Kansas defensive numbers to suggest that TCU will be stopped on offense. The Horned Frogs are 10th in Havoc Allowed and will crush a Jayhawks defensive trench that ranks 117th in Stuff Rate.
Kansas' defensive scheme has been successful in stopping ground explosiveness, but that number tails off against the pass, as TCU is eighth in passing expected points.
Corner Jacobee Bryant has been targeted a team-high 30 times this season, producing just two pass breakups and a putrid 19% missed tackle rate. The Horned Frogs should have continued success in executing explosive plays, possibly more through the air than on the ground against Kansas.
The Action Network projection gives TCU value in the market — projected as 10-point favorites with a total of 63.5. The Horned Frogs are certainly a buy under a touchdown, but with inflation to the spread, the better value may be on the total.
Kansas will continue to struggle reading the 3-3-5 defense, relying on explosive plays during passing downs for points.
The jury is still out on the TCU defense, but there is no reason to hop off of a money-making Horned Frogs offense until a legitimate run-stopping defense is the opposition.
