Alabama vs Texas A&M Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -118 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -2800 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -104 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +1160 |
Let me clear my throat as I give my best attempt at a Bruce Buffer impersonation: "It'ssssssssssssss TIMEEEEEEEEEEEE."
After a preseason full of Jimbo Fisher pressers attacking Nick Saban and the Alabama program, it's finally time for one of the most anticipated matchups of the year.
If you recall, I covered this game in an article before the season started and detailed what was going on between the two programs.
Now, we're ready for them to battle it out on the field.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Hell hath no fury like the scorn of a pissed-off Saban.
I still vividly remember where I was when the Aggies shocked the nation and beat Alabama last year. I'm sure that game hasn't left Saban's mind since the final whistle.
Now, he can get his revenge and it won't be pretty.
The offense should be gifted more opportunities than usual, as the Aggies will generate little-to-no production on the offensive end.
When on offense, we may see a heavy dose of running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan, as the Aggies' rush defense is one of the worst in the nation.
That's perfect for Alabama, as it may be working backup quarterback Jalen Milroe into a new role as starter.
Jahmyr Gibbs has 18 carries for 206 yards 🤯 pic.twitter.com/MnAyE3Heqc
— Sidelines – Bama (@SSN_Alabama) October 1, 2022
It's still uncertain if Bryce Young is suiting up after his injury last week. Milroe brings a more dynamic dual-threat approach with his fantastic run game.
While it's still uncertain how Milroe fares as a passer, Saban can at least rely on the running game to get the job done. Milroe has only thrown for 65 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts.
The defense should have little to no issue in dealing with King under center. Even if the Aggies put in Conner Weigman, I don't expect either quarterback to turn around A&M's horrific offense. Alabama is currently top-20 in both Defensive Pass and Rush Success.
Texas A&M Aggies
As if this season couldn't get any worse for the Aggies, it was recently announced that Max Johnson broke a bone in his hand and will not be starting under center against the Crimson Tide.
With Johnson out, in comes Haynes King, who has struggled mightily so far this season. King has thrown for 510 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions. Alabama will look to get in the backfield and generate as much Havoc as possible against the shaky quarterback play.
The Aggies' offense will do little to no good protecting him, as A&M will have its hands full against the elite defensive unit. The Aggies rank 76th or higher in Line Yards and Pass Blocking, which will provide little time for King to get comfortable while making his reads.
While the offense has been an utter disaster all season, the Aggies' elite defense is what has kept them competitive — at least until they go against this Alabama ground game.
While the secondary has been incredible at limiting the pass and is top-20 in Defensive Pass Success, the Aggies have been prone to getting gashed on the ground and rank near the bottom of the barrel in multiple defensive rush metrics.
Alabama vs Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 85 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 12 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 81 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 45 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Alabama Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 15 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 3 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 5 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 52 | 4 |
| PFF Coverage | 51 | 18 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 82 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (117) | 25.8 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 52.1% (77) | 50.9% (84) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Alabama vs Texas A&M Betting Pick
Every Alabama fan, player, coach and especially Nick Saban has had this game circled on the calendar since last year.
It's not going to be pretty, as the inconsistencies of the Aggies' offense are going to get them run off the field, and Texas A&M is going to be forced to watch Saban and company run it up.
Alabama has nearly every advantage in the metrics, especially in the run game. Gibbs and McClellan may be poised for huge games, as they run all over the Aggies' poor rush defense.
If you read my preseason piece, then you already know I grabbed Alabama at -16. If you managed to do the same, then congratulations on the closing line value.
Since that number has exploded to around -24, I am shifting my focus elsewhere and that is to the first-half spread. While I doubt Saban will call the dogs off late in the game, I will secure my position with a first-half spread at any number better than -14.
