Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -194 |
What a tale of two different tapes for these teams last weekend.
While Mississippi State cruised past Bowling Green in a get-right rout, Texas A&M gave us the game of the week in a thriller against Arkansas.
In a top-25 showdown, the Aggies and Razorbacks went toe-to-toe in a battle down to the wire that resulted in Arkansas missing the game-winning field goal off the top of the post.
Yes, you read that right. Not off the post, off the top of the post.
In a battle of two clashing stylistic mashups, will the Aggies find some life on offense to compete with the Bulldogs' high-flying unit? Or will Mississippi State get the "upset" according to the public eye?
Let's find out.
Texas A&M Aggies
By now, you should have a firm grasp of the Aggies' identity. They have a very stout defense that has limited opposing teams' offensive success while fielding one of the most anemic offenses themselves.
This strategy may work in the short term, but danger looms over them should they fall behind early against an explosive unit.
You can't rely on fluke scores all the time like this ridiculous touchdown.
WHAT. JUST. HAPPENED. 👀
TEXAS A&M (-110 ML) WITH AN ABSURD TD
pic.twitter.com/Ah4v2jLRBX— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 25, 2022
The Aggies head to Starkville to face the Air-Raid Bulldogs, who field one of the best passing attacks in football.
While the Aggies' Pass Success Rate Allowed ranks among the top-five nationally thanks to their secondary, they shockingly struggle to get to the quarterback.
The defensive line has been a weak point for the unit, getting pushed back by elite offensive lines and giving the quarterback little to no pressure. This has resulted in a lack of Havoc, as the Aggies are relying on stops mid-drive on Standard Downs at an unsustainable rate.
Should the defensive line step up in production and generate backfield pressure, the Aggies can then neutralize the Bulldogs' pass attack and give their horrific offense a puncher's chance.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Talk about righting the ship. After losing to LSU, Will Rogers and company took their anger out on Bowling Green in prep for this game.
After LSU successfully halted the Mississippi State pass attack to 214 yards, one touchdown and one interception, Rogers turned it around last week with a 409-yard, six-touchdown performance.
Still thinking about this throw by Will Rogers pic.twitter.com/OIBbJfFxOh
— SportsTalk Mississippi (@SportsTalkMiss) September 26, 2022
While they boast one of the best passing units in football, this offense has some very concerning flaws heading into this matchup.
Prone to making mistakes with a below-average rank in Havoc at 88th and a middling offensive line, Rogers will need to put together another masterclass performance if he wants to crack this vaunted defense.
The Bulldogs' defensive line production will be crucial, as any pressure generated to the backfield can force the Aggies into mistakes, potentially yielding great field position.
Every yard gained will be hard-earned in Starkville.
While one of the worst in the nation in Pass Rush, the Bulldogs should find some success, as the Aggies; offensive line is nothing to write home about either.
The Aggies are one of the worst teams in Havoc Allowed in the nation, which is an important weakness Mississippi State will need to exploit.
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Mississippi State match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 123 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 80 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 125 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 79 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Mississippi State Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 5 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 63 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 91 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 2 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 63 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 25 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 46 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.0 (121) | 27.9 (99) |
| Rush Rate | 54.7% (57) | 31.9% (130) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Betting Pick
Opening at -1.5, Mississippi State quickly saw money flood in on it, making this an unbettable at -3.5.
Instead, I will shift my focus to the total.
The under has value, as there are several key factors in our favor. The Texas A&M pass defense is as good as it gets and is more than capable of limiting the Mississippi State pass attack.
The Aggies don't pose a huge threat offensively despite a balanced scheme. They are also one of the slowest units in football at 30 seconds per play, ranking 121st in the nation.
Should both teams limit Havoc — which both are prone to do — and opt into being forced off the field on failed drives instead, we may see this under cruise to the window with ease.
Take the under at 45 or higher and hope for a good ol' fashion defensive showdown.
