South Carolina vs Texas A&M Odds
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 45 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 45 -105o / -115u | -150 |
South Carolina will host Texas A&M on Saturday night in a battle between two teams headed in different directions.
The Gamecocks will look to make it four straight victories while the Aggies will try to stop a two-game skid. Both teams sit at 1-2 in SEC play and will benefit from a bye last week.
So, can South Carolina continue its momentum and pick up its first-ever win in this series? Or will Texas A&M improve to 9-0 all-time against the Gamecocks with its ninth straight victory in the past nine years?
Let's take a closer look at each team and then break it down from a betting perspective.
South Carolina Gamecocks
After a messy year of quarterback roulette that even ended with the Gamecocks starting a wide receiver at quarterback in their bowl game, head coach Shane Beamer brought in former Oklahoma gunslinger Spencer Rattler via the transfer portal.
Beamer hoped Rattler would provide a significant bump to the passing game, but he has had a disappointing first half of the season. Rattler has thrown three fewer touchdowns than interceptions (5-8) and ranks 100th in QBR.
Conversely, the rushing attack has thrived. The Gamecocks rank in the top 30 in both EPA per Rush and Rushing Success Rate, led by explosive running back MarShawn Lloyd.
The former highly-touted recruit has now fully recovered from his knee injury. Over the past three games, he has rushed for 359 yards (7.5 YPA) to go along with five touchdowns on the ground.
Defensively, South Carolina's metrics are negatively skewed after it had to deal with injuries to as many as eight defensive starters at once earlier this season. However, a two-week break against Charlotte and South Carolina State allowed the Gamecocks to get much healthier (on offense too).
The results were promising at Kentucky, albeit against a backup quarterback. The Gamecocks should be even healthier now following the bye week.
Texas A&M Aggies
It's been quite a disappointing season for the 3-3 Aggies, who had high preseason expectations. They got upset at home by a Group of Five team (Appalachian State) and lost by 18 at Mississippi State.
The Aggies did hang around against Alabama, but the Tide started a backup quarterback and tried to give that game away with multiple turnovers that led to short fields for Jimbo Fisher's bunch.
Their three wins came against an FCS school and two Power Five clubs in Miami (FL) and Arkansas. However, none of those three came on the road, and they probably should've lost to both the Hurricanes and Razorbacks, who each finished with more yards in one-possession losses.
The main culprit has been a struggling offense that ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate. If you remove two non-offensive touchdowns and another score in garbage time, Texas A&M has averaged only 16.8 offensive points per game against its five FBS opponents.
And if you remove the points scored on drives that started in opponent territory after turnovers, that average drops to a paltry 12.6 points.
The passing game has been downright dreadful, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass. To make matters worse, the Aggies also lost their most dangerous weapon in Ainias Smith to a season-ending injury.
We'll see who ends up starting at quarterback with Max Johnson injured and Haynes King dealing with some bumps and bruises. Add in King's struggles, and Jimbo might go to highly-touted freshman Conner Weigman, who has yet to see action.
Regardless of who lines up under center, I don't envision Texas A&M lighting up the scoreboard for the first time in 2022.
Defensively, the talented but inexperienced front just hasn't lived up to the hype. For the season, the Aggies rank outside the top 100 in both Line Yards and Opportunity Rate. They've also graded out below-average nationally in EPA per Rush and Rushing Success Rate.
The experienced secondary has at least played well, but hasn't been as dominant as those in College Station had envisioned.
South Carolina vs Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Carolina and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 49 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 114 | 48 | |
| Havoc | 109 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 90 | 92 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Carolina Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 93 | 12 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 67 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 129 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 4 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 79 |
| PFF Coverage | 70 | 122 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 82 | 2 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (101) | 26.9 (76) |
| Rush Rate | 48.6% (93) | 52.4% (74) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
South Carolina vs Texas A&M Betting Pick
Despite pulling off an upset two weeks ago at Kentucky, I still believe the Gamecocks remain undervalued in the market. In contrast, I don't think this Texas A&M team has been downgraded enough.
This also sets up as a potential sleepy spot for Texas A&M — even with both teams coming off of a bye. With their season-long goals already washed away, the Aggies could get caught off guard in Columbia with undefeated Ole Miss up next.
Meanwhile, this is an extremely important game for the South Carolina program in front of what should be a raucous night crowd at Williams-Brice Stadium.
The Aggies could have some success on the ground, but I can't see them getting much through the air against a much-healthier South Carolina stop unit. Plus, some of SC's early-down metrics suggest better results are on the horizon.
On the other side of the ball, look for Lloyd and company to take full advantage of a very vulnerable Texas A&M run defense. They should stay ahead of the sticks and put Rattler in favorable passing situations.
Additionally, don't sleep on the South Carolina special teams, which have excelled in every facet. For the season, I have the Gamecocks ranked No. 1 overall in the often-forgotten-about third phase of the game.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M has performed a bit below average in that department. Don't be shocked if special teams end up deciding a game I make the Gamecocks a tiny favorite in.
Lastly, South Carolina head coach Beamer is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS with extra time (8+ days) to prepare, with a trio of outright upsets over Florida, North Carolina and Kentucky as 17.5-, 12.5- and 4.5-point underdogs, respectively.
Pick: South Carolina +3 |
