UConn vs. FIU Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -118o / -104u | -245 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -118o / -104u | +188 |
UConn traveling to FIU is one of the least appealing games of the entire college football season. However, it did get a bit more interesting after both teams pulled off massive upsets as double-digit underdogs.
- UConn (+24) picked up a shocking home win over Fresno State.
- FIU (+14) won on the road at New Mexico State.
This represented the first FBS wins for both programs since 2019. It ended UConn's 0-18 FBS winless streak since beating UMass. Going back even further, the Huskies were 1-40 over their past 41 games against FBS competition before beating Fresno State.
FIU ended an even longer winless streak of 20 games against FBS teams. The Panthers' last victory over an FBS school actually came against Miami (FL) in 2019.
Even more surprising, both teams were the deserved winners, statistically out-playing their respective opponents. Neither was a win due to flukes.
Plus, as bettors, we don't care who plays if there's an opportunity to profit.
Let's take a closer look at this matchup only a bettor could love.
Connecticut Huskies
UConn brought in Jim Mora Jr. as its new head coach to rebuild a program that has been in rapid decline. He's already starting to put a more respectable product on the field, but the Huskies have a long way to go to get back to respectability.
This is one of the 10 worst teams in the country, and the Huskies are extremely inexperienced across the board. They rely on their rushing attack and want to play at a very methodical pace.
The defense lost its best player to the NFL last year, but is decent at generating pressure.
FIU Panthers
FIU sits even lower on my latest power ratings with almost everyone agreeing this is one of the three-worst teams in the country. I personally have the Panthers as the second-worst — ahead of only Hawaii — but I'm still not sure where the bottom is for each team.
FIU actually has two victories on the season. It opened up the year with a miraculous comeback home win over FCS Bryant in overtime. For reference, Bryant has only one win in 2022.
In that game, sophomore quarterback Grayson James replaced the ineffective Duke transfer Gunnar Holmberg and hasn't looked back since.
Following the opener, FIU got drilled in back-to-back road games at Texas State by 29 and Western Kentucky in an embarrassing 77-0 loss.
Similar to UConn, FIU brought in a new head coach in Mike MacIntyre, who has the monumental task of orchestrating a complete turnaround from basically scratch. He brought in David Yost as the new offensive coordinator, so an up-tempo, pass-heavy game was expected.
That's how FIU played up until last week, when it surprised New Mexico State with a more run-heavy, RPO-based attack that the Aggies were not prepared for.
After watching that game, NMSU simply wasn't ready for it and made countless mental errors.
On the other side of the ball, FIU simply loaded the box and dared the Aggies to throw, which their quarterbacks simply couldn't do.
This is a very bad football team that wants to play fast. That could lead to disastrous results, as we saw at Western Kentucky.
UConn vs. FIU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UConn and FIU match up statistically:
UConn Offense vs. FIU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 99 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 9 | 12 |  |
| Havoc | 116 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 105 | 112 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
FIU Offense vs. UConn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 129 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 131 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 90 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 102 |
| PFF Coverage | 78 | 112 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 71 | 59 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.7 (107) | 22.8 (13) |
| Rush Rate | 65.6% (7) | 43.6% (115) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UConn vs. FIU Betting Pick
Neither team's statistical profiles will look pretty, regardless of where you look. After all, these are two of the worst teams in the country.
However, keep in mind that FIU has played one of the nation's easiest schedules, while UConn currently has a top-40 strength of schedule to date.
The Huskies recently finished up a three-game stretch against three Power Five schools — Michigan, Syracuse and NC State — that have one combined loss.
FIU is completely rebuilding with a significantly less talented roster than UConn. Per my most recent power ratings, the Huskies appear cheap in a game I project FIU as an 8.5-point underdog.
I believe the market is giving the Panthers too much credit for last week's win over a bad New Mexico State squad.
Plus, it's not like FIU has a great home-field advantage. It's also coming off three consecutive road games with trips to Western Kentucky and out west to New Mexico over the past two weekends.
For what it's worth, over the past 20 seasons, home teams have covered at only around a 44% rate after three consecutive road games.
The total is very interesting since both teams are polar opposites. FIU wants to throw and play fast while UConn wants to run and play slow.
Given how different FIU played last week, I can't say with any confidence how the staff will approach this game, but at least they can't surprise UConn with a run-heavy RPO attack like they did against NMSU last Saturday.
I laid the points with UConn, primarily because I show value in the number. However, I do think the Huskies have success moving the ball on the ground on offense and will create enough negative plays in the backfield on passing downs when on defense.
Make sure to hold your nose while putting this one in.
