UL-Monroe vs. South Alabama Odds
| UL-Monroe Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -115 | 51 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -105 | 51 -110o / -110u | -850 |
South Alabama has been the surprise of the Sun Belt this season. Victories over UL Monroe this week and Troy next week would make the Jaguars the heavy front runners of the Sun Belt West division race.
The Jaguars are 4-1 on the season, with their only loss coming to UCLA after a fake field goal in the closing minutes backfired.
South Alabama loses by 1 at the buzzer to UCLA b/c South Alabama ran a fake FG from UCLA's 23-yard line with 3 minutes to go.
Galaxy brain call. pic.twitter.com/8vOtExWXI1
— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) September 17, 2022
The Jaguars have won their other four contests by an average of 20 points. Last week, the program took down the defending Sun Belt champions Louisiana.
They will need to avoid a letdown in this spot, as they welcome the 2-4 UL Monroe Warhawks.
UL Monroe has been underdogs in all four of its FBS matchups — though the program snuck out a victory as 9.5-point underdogs vs. Louisiana.
Can South Alabama continue to roll against a bottom-tier program in the Sun Belt?
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
Expectations have never been very high for UL Monroe football — it has made it to bowl season just once in the program’s history.
This season appears to be no different, as the Warhawks are being outscored by an average score of 47-17 vs. FBS foes.
The offense has appeared serviceable over the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points against each conference opponent. The Warhawks lean on their rushing attack, owning a rush rate of 61% while averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
That could spell trouble in this matchup, as South Alabama has allowed just 100 rushing yards per game this year and 3.3 yards per carry.
Quarterback Chandler Rogers has been a mediocre passer who is completing 70% of his passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. He’s tossed six touchdowns to go along with three interceptions while averaging only 178 passing yards per game.
Rogers is a dual threat who is second on the team in carries but averaging only 2.6 yards per rush.
The defense has some serious holes with no immediate solutions in sight. The group ranks 117th in Passing Success Rate and 114th in the defensive pass rush. FBS opponents have all passed for over 235 yards against this defense, which ranks 115th in the nation in Coverage, per PFF.
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama has been the surprise team of the Sun Belt this season. I played over 5.5 on the Jaguars'regular season win total for the year, and I am ready to cash that ticket by Halloween.
The offense hasn’t missed a beat since losing quarterback Jake Bentley and wide receiver Jalen Tolbert in the offseason. The Jaguars returned eight starters and Carter Bradley has proven himself at the quarterback position.
Bradley is averaging 254 passing yards per game while tossing 10 touchdowns to three interceptions. The junior quarterback is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt and has led the Jaguars to the 46th ranking in Passing Success Rate.
He should be in for a big day matching up against a UL Monroe defense that ranks 117th in Passing Success Rate.
The Jaguars own a solid run game that is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 155 yards per game. The unit also ranks inside the top 60 in Rushing Success Rate behind junior running back La’Damian Webb. Webb is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has found pay dirt in all but one contest this season.
The defense has been efficient, holding opponents to less than 19 points per game. The group has been particularly strong against the run, holding opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and only three touchdowns on the season.
The Jaguars have thrived in creating negative plays, amounting 23 tackles for loss on the season. They’ve come away with some crucial turnovers, tallying seven interceptions and six fumble recoveries on the year (2.6 per game).
UL-Monroe vs. South Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UL-Monroe and South Alabama match up statistically:
UL-Monroe Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 8 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 25 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Alabama Offense vs. UL-Monroe Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 117 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 68 | 114 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 94 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 129 | 32 |
| PFF Coverage | 115 | 9 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 131 | 54 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (117) | 26.7 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 60.9% (18) | 51.8% (76) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UL-Monroe vs. South Alabama Betting Pick
South Alabama is its own biggest opponent in this matchup, as it needs to avoid the sandwich spot. Coming off of a big win against Louisiana last week, the Jaguars can’t look ahead to Troy next week.
The Jaguars found themselves in a similar position last year, opening the season 3-0 before finishing 2-7 down the stretch. Among those seven losses was a 41-31 defeat at the hands of the Warhawks.
Head coach Kane Wommack certainly will have his program fired up for this matchup.
The UL Monroe defense has been horrid through the first month of the season, allowing 47 points to FBS opponents. The group ranks 129th in the nation in tackling and 115th in Coverage, perPFF.
The Warhawks have allowed opponents to convert on 50% of their third-down attempts, and South Alabama will continue to dominate time of possession in this matchup.
The UL Monroe offense has been reliant on a rushing attack that centers around running back Malik Jackson and Rogers.
But South Alabama already faced a much better dual-threat quarterback in UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Jaguars were able to limit him to 27 rushing yards on seven carries.
They will be able to shut down the run game in this matchup by forcing Rogers to beat them with his arm.
I’m backing the Jaguars to continue their dominant run and solidify themselves atop the Sun Belt West.
